{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,2]],"date-time":"2026-05-02T07:06:19Z","timestamp":1777705579418,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":8,"publisher":"SAGE Publications","issue":"2","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["IFS"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2022,1,25]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>This paper proposed a hybrid intelligent approach based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) methods for multi-step ahead medical tourism (MT) forecasting using explanatory input variables based on two decade real-time recorded database. In the proposed hybrid model, these variables are 1st extracted then medical tourism is forecasted to perform the long term as well as the short term goal and planning in the nation. The multi-step ahead medical tourism is forecasted recursively, by utilizing the 1st forecasted value as the input variable to generate the next forecasting value and this procedure is continued till third step ahead forecasted value. The proposed approach is firstly tested and validated by using international tourism arrival (ITA) dataset then proposed approach is implemented for forecasting of medical tourism arrival in nation. In order to validate the performance and accuracy of the proposed hybrid model, a comparative analysis is performed by using Monte Carlo method and the results are compared. Obtained results show that the proposed hybrid forecasting approach for medical tourism has outperforming characteristics.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3233\/jifs-189785","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,2,26]],"date-time":"2021-02-26T12:03:01Z","timestamp":1614340981000},"page":"1235-1251","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":12,"title":["Hybrid approach combining EMD, ARIMA and monte carlo for multi-step ahead medical tourism forecasting"],"prefix":"10.1177","volume":"42","author":[{"given":"Nuzhat","family":"Fatema","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Faculty of Business and Management, Universiti Sultan Zainal Abidin (UniSZA), Malaysia"},{"name":"Intelligent Prognostic Private Limited, India"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Hasmat","family":"Malik","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"BEARS, CREATE Tower, University Town, NUS Campus, Singapore"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Mutia Sobihah","family":"Abd Halim","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Faculty of Business and Management, Universiti Sultan Zainal Abidin (UniSZA), Malaysia"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"179","reference":[{"issue":"4","key":"10.3233\/JIFS-189785_ref1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"257","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jtumed.2014.01.007","article-title":"Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: A potential destination for medical tourism","volume":"9","author":"Khan","year":"2014","journal-title":"Journal of Taibah University Medical Sciences"},{"issue":"1971","key":"10.3233\/JIFS-189785_ref5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"903","DOI":"10.1098\/rspa.1998.0193","article-title":"The Empirical Mode Decomposition and the Hilbert Spectrum for Nonlinear and Non-Stationary Time Series Analysis","volume":"454","author":"Huang","year":"1998","journal-title":"Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series A: Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences"},{"issue":"6","key":"10.3233\/JIFS-189785_ref6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"889","DOI":"10.1049\/iet-rpg.2015.0382","article-title":"Artificial Neural Network and Empirical Mode Decomposition Based Imbalance Fault Diagnosis of Wind Turbine Using TurbSim, FAST and Simulink","volume":"11","author":"Malik","year":"2017","journal-title":"IET Renewable Power Generation"},{"issue":"4","key":"10.3233\/JIFS-189785_ref7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3043","DOI":"10.3233\/JIFS-169247","article-title":"EMD and ANN based Intelligent Fault Diagnosis Model for Transmission Line","volume":"32","author":"Malik","year":"2017","journal-title":"Journal of Intelligent & Fuzzy Systems"},{"issue":"5","key":"10.3233\/JIFS-189785_ref8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"5391","DOI":"10.3233\/JIFS-169821","article-title":"EMD and ANN Based Intelligent Model for Bearing Fault Diagnosis","volume":"35","author":"Shah","year":"2018","journal-title":"Journal of Intelligent & Fuzzy Systems"},{"key":"10.3233\/JIFS-189785_ref9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1109\/ICPE-ICES.2016.7853709"},{"key":"10.3233\/JIFS-189785_ref10","first-page":"309","article-title":"Feature Extraction Using EMD and Classifier through Artificial Neural Networks for Gearbox Fault Diagnosis","volume":"697","author":"Pandya","year":"2018","journal-title":"Book chapter in Applications of Artificial Intelligence Techniques in Engineering, Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing"},{"key":"10.3233\/JIFS-189785_ref11","unstructured":"Box G.E.P. , et al., Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, 3rd ed. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1994"}],"container-title":["Journal of Intelligent &amp; Fuzzy Systems"],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/content.iospress.com\/download?id=10.3233\/JIFS-189785","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,29]],"date-time":"2026-04-29T09:44:18Z","timestamp":1777455858000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/full\/10.3233\/JIFS-189785"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"Hasmat","family":"Malik","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"editor","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Gopal","family":"Chaudhary","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"editor","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Smriti","family":"Srivastava","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"editor","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2022,1,25]]},"references-count":8,"journal-issue":{"issue":"2"},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3233\/jifs-189785","relation":{},"ISSN":["1064-1246","1875-8967"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1064-1246","type":"print"},{"value":"1875-8967","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2022,1,25]]}}}