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These methods make use of historic accident records to generate useful road safety metrics; however, there is less information on how climatic factors and road surface conditions affect the models that generate recommendations for safe traffic. In this research, Bayesian Network, as a Hidden Markov Models, and Apriori method are proposed to evaluate the open and closed state of the road. The weather and road surface conditions are explicitly written as a sequence of latent variables from observed data. Different weather variables were studied in order to evaluate both road states (open or close) and the results showed that the Hidden Markov Model provides explicit insight into the sequential nature of the road safety conditions but does not provide a directly interpretable result for human decision making. In this way, we complement the study with the Apriori algorithm using categorical variables. The experimental results show that combining the Hidden Markov Model and the Apriori algorithm provides an interpretable rule for decision making in recommendations of road safety to decide an opening or closing of the road in extreme weather conditions with a confidence higher than 90%.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3233\/jifs-211746","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,6,10]],"date-time":"2022-06-10T11:15:52Z","timestamp":1654859752000},"page":"3171-3187","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4,"title":["Explainable Hidden Markov Model for road safety: a case of road closure recommendations in extreme weather conditions"],"prefix":"10.1177","volume":"44","author":[{"given":"Sergio","family":"Hern\u00e1ndez","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Centro de Innovaci\u00f3n en Ingenier\u00eda Aplicada, Universidad Cat\u00f3lica del Maule, Talca, Chile"}]},{"given":"Juan Luis","family":"L\u00f3pez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centro de Innovaci\u00f3n en Ingenier\u00eda Aplicada, Universidad Cat\u00f3lica del Maule, Talca, Chile"},{"name":"Centro de Investigaci\u00f3n en Ciencias F\u00edsico Matem\u00e1ticas, Facultad de Ciencias F\u00edsico Matem\u00e1ticas, Universidad Aut\u00f3noma de Nuevo Le\u00f3n, Monterrey, M\u00e9xico"}]},{"given":"Xaviera","family":"L\u00f3pez-Cort\u00e9s","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Computer Science and Industries, Universidad Cat\u00f3lica del Maule, Talca, Chile"}]},{"given":"Angelica","family":"Urrutia","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Facultad de Ingenier\u00eda, Universidad Finis Terrae, Santiago, Chile"}]}],"member":"179","reference":[{"key":"10.3233\/JIFS-211746_ref1","unstructured":"Transportation Research Board and National Research Council. 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