{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,15]],"date-time":"2025-11-15T19:16:02Z","timestamp":1763234162772},"reference-count":0,"publisher":"IOS Press","isbn-type":[{"value":"9781643685335","type":"electronic"}],"license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,22]],"date-time":"2024-08-22T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1724284800000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,22]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>This study investigates the forecasting of cardiovascular mortality trends in Greece\u2019s elderly population. Utilizing mortality data from 2001 to 2020, we employ two forecasting models: the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Facebook\u2019s Prophet model. Our study evaluates the efficacy of these models in predicting cardiovascular mortality trends over 2020-2030. The ARIMA model showcased predictive accuracy for the general and male population within the 65-79 age group, whereas the Prophet model provided better forecasts for females in the same age bracket. Our findings emphasize the need for adaptive forecasting tools that accommodate demographic-specific characteristics and highlight the role of advanced statistical methods in health policy planning.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3233\/shti240549","type":"book-chapter","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,23]],"date-time":"2024-08-23T09:47:17Z","timestamp":1724406437000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["Advancing Cardiovascular Mortality Trend Analysis: A Machine Learning Approach to Predict Future Health Policy Needs"],"prefix":"10.3233","author":[{"given":"Georgios","family":"Feretzakis","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Science and Technology, Hellenic Open University, Patras, Greece"}]},{"given":"Nikolaos","family":"Theodorakis","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiology, Amalia Fleming General Hospital, Athens, Greece"},{"name":"65+ Clinic, Amalia Fleming General Hospital, Athens, Greece"},{"name":"School of Medicine, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece"}]},{"given":"Georgia","family":"Vamvakou","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiology, Amalia Fleming General Hospital, Athens, Greece"},{"name":"65+ Clinic, Amalia Fleming General Hospital, Athens, Greece"}]},{"given":"Christos","family":"Hitas","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiology, Amalia Fleming General Hospital, Athens, Greece"},{"name":"65+ Clinic, Amalia Fleming General Hospital, Athens, Greece"}]},{"given":"Dimitrios","family":"Anagnostou","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiology, Amalia Fleming General Hospital, Athens, Greece"},{"name":"65+ Clinic, Amalia Fleming General Hospital, Athens, Greece"}]},{"given":"Sofia","family":"Kalantzi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"65+ Clinic, Amalia Fleming General Hospital, Athens, Greece"},{"name":"Department of Internal Medicine, Amalia Fleming General Hospital, Athens, Greece"}]},{"given":"Aikaterini","family":"Spyridaki","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"65+ Clinic, Amalia Fleming General Hospital, Athens, Greece"},{"name":"Department of Internal Medicine, Amalia Fleming General Hospital, Athens, Greece"}]},{"given":"Zoi","family":"Kollia","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"65+ Clinic, Amalia Fleming General Hospital, Athens, Greece"}]},{"given":"Michalitsa","family":"Christodoulou","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"65+ Clinic, Amalia Fleming General Hospital, Athens, Greece"}]},{"given":"Dimitris","family":"Kalles","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Science and Technology, Hellenic Open University, Patras, Greece"}]},{"given":"Andreas F.","family":"Gkontzis","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Science and Technology, Hellenic Open University, Patras, Greece"}]},{"given":"Vassilios S.","family":"Verykios","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Science and Technology, Hellenic Open University, Patras, Greece"}]},{"given":"Maria","family":"Nikolaou","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiology, Amalia Fleming General Hospital, Athens, Greece"},{"name":"65+ Clinic, Amalia Fleming General Hospital, Athens, Greece"}]}],"member":"7437","container-title":["Studies in Health Technology and Informatics","Digital Health and Informatics Innovations for Sustainable Health Care Systems"],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/ebooks.iospress.nl\/pdf\/doi\/10.3233\/SHTI240549","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,23]],"date-time":"2024-08-23T09:47:18Z","timestamp":1724406438000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/ebooks.iospress.nl\/doi\/10.3233\/SHTI240549"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,22]]},"ISBN":["9781643685335"],"references-count":0,"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3233\/shti240549","relation":{},"ISSN":["0926-9630","1879-8365"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0926-9630","type":"print"},{"value":"1879-8365","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,22]]}}}