{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,28]],"date-time":"2026-02-28T02:03:27Z","timestamp":1772244207579,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":32,"publisher":"National Institute for Health and Care Research","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,10,7]],"date-time":"2024-10-07T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1728259200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000272","name":"National Institute for Health and Care Research","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["NIHR203020"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NIHR203020"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000272","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["openresearch.nihr.ac.uk"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["NIHR Open Res"],"abstract":"<ns3:p>\n                    Background Vaccine coverage for common infectious diseases such as Measles and Pertussis (also known as whooping cough) have been declining in England and Wales since 2014. Consequently, significant increases in Measles and Pertussis cases are observed in the community. Aim To explore whether Google Trends offers a predictive utility as a health surveillance tool for Meases and Pertussis in England and Wales. Design and Setting Google search data related to Measles and Pertussis, including common associated symptoms, were downloaded for 52 weeks from 07\/01\/2023 \u2013 07\/01\/2024. Measles and Pertussis case data were retrieved from the weekly Notification of Infectious Disease (NOID) reports. Methods The associations between searching and case data were explored using a time-series analyses, including cross-correlations, Prais-Winsten regression and joinpoint analysis. Results Significant cross-correlations were found for Measles cases and \u201cmeasles\u201d searching (\n                    <ns3:italic>r=<\/ns3:italic>\n                    .41) at a lag of -1 week. For Pertussis cases, searching for \u201cwhooping cough\u201d (\n                    <ns3:italic>r<\/ns3:italic>\n                    =.31), \u201ccough\u201d (\n                    <ns3:italic>r<\/ns3:italic>\n                    =.39), \u201c100 day cough\u201d (\n                    <ns3:italic>r<\/ns3:italic>\n                    .41) and \u201cvomiting\u201d (\n                    <ns3:italic>r<\/ns3:italic>\n                    =.42) were significantly correlated at a lag of -3 to -2 weeks. In multivariable regression, \u201cmeasles\u201d remained significantly associated with Measles cases (\u03b2=.24, SE=.33,\n                    <ns3:italic>p<\/ns3:italic>\n                    =.02) as did \u201cwhooping cough\u201d (\u03b2=.71, SE=.27,\n                    <ns3:italic>p<\/ns3:italic>\n                    =.01) and \u201ccough\u201d (\u03b2=1.99, SE=.54,\n                    <ns3:italic>p<\/ns3:italic>\n                    =.001) for pertussis. Conclusion Increases in Measles and Pertussis cases follow increases in online searches for both diseases and selected respective symptoms. Further work is required to explore how GT can be used in conjunction with other health surveillance systems to monitor or even predict disease outbreaks, to better target public health interventions.\n                  <\/ns3:p>","DOI":"10.3310\/nihropenres.13607.1","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,10,7]],"date-time":"2024-10-07T11:55:10Z","timestamp":1728302110000},"page":"56","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3310\/nihropenres.crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Measles and Pertussis outbreaks in England and Wales: a time-series analysis"],"prefix":"10.3310","volume":"4","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8311-7452","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Thomas","family":"Shepherd","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2677-1028","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Christian","family":"Mallen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"6221","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,10,7]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref-2","article-title":"11 The UK immunisation schedule.","year":"2020"},{"key":"ref-3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjopen-2022-066288","article-title":"Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on timeliness and equity of Measles, Mumps and Rubella vaccinations in North East London: a longitudinal study using electronic health records.","volume":"12","author":"N Firman","year":"2022","journal-title":"BMJ 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The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.","order":2,"name":"grant-information","label":"Grant Information"},{"value":"This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licence, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.","order":0,"name":"copyright-info","label":"Copyright"}]}}