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Using data spanning 1999-2021, we identified regional changes in biological and physical factors most likely responsible for the persistent increased productivity of anchovy. Anchovy recruitment was strongest during periods with weak downwelling events (-500 to 0 m<jats:sup>3<\/jats:sup> s<jats:sup>-1<\/jats:sup> km<jats:sup>-1<\/jats:sup>), lower salinity (&lt;35), and temperature between 15 and 17\u00b0C from April through June, months corresponding with annual peak spawning. Positive Winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO<jats:sub>W<\/jats:sub>) was also associated with years with strong anchovy recruitment. It is likely that local oceanographic features such as the Iberian Poleward Current and the Western Iberia Buoyant Plume contribute to a higher onshore retention of anchovy larvae, promoting life cycle closure and higher survival. The average lower salinity levels observed during spawning seasons since 2009 support this hypothesis. Moreover, random forest models suggested that years with relatively strong anchovy recruitment tended to be those with low abundance of European sardine <jats:italic>Sardina pilchardus<\/jats:italic>, suggesting that intra-guild processes such as foraging competition and egg predation are also important in establishing recruitment potential. We highlight future avenues of research needed to gain a mechanistic understanding of recruitment drivers of anchovy in this region to provide robust, science-based advice to managers and improve projections of the potential impacts of climate change.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3354\/meps14594","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,4,22]],"date-time":"2024-04-22T14:25:37Z","timestamp":1713795937000},"page":"315-330","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3354\/policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":5,"title":["Anchovy on the rise: Investigating environmental drivers of recruitment strength in the northern Canary Current"],"prefix":"10.3354","volume":"741","author":[{"given":"A","family":"Ferreira","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"MARE - Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre\/ARNET - Aquatic Research Network, Faculdade de Ci\u00eancias, Universidade de Lisboa, Campo Grande, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal"}]},{"given":"AC","family":"Brito","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"MARE - Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre\/ARNET - Aquatic Research Network, Faculdade de Ci\u00eancias, Universidade de Lisboa, Campo Grande, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal"},{"name":"Departamento de Biologia Vegetal, Faculdade de Ci\u00eancias, Universidade de Lisboa, Campo Grande, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal"}]},{"given":"JL","family":"Costa","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"MARE - Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre\/ARNET - Aquatic Research Network, Faculdade de Ci\u00eancias, Universidade de Lisboa, Campo Grande, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal"}]},{"given":"V","family":"Brotas","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"MARE - Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre\/ARNET - Aquatic Research Network, Faculdade de Ci\u00eancias, Universidade de Lisboa, Campo Grande, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal"},{"name":"Departamento de Biologia Vegetal, Faculdade de Ci\u00eancias, Universidade de Lisboa, Campo Grande, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal"}]},{"given":"A","family":"Teles-Machado","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere - IPMA, Av. Doutor Alfredo Magalh\u00e3es Ramalho, 6, 1495-165 Lisboa, Portugal"},{"name":"IDL - Instituto Dom Luiz, Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere, Av. Doutor Alfredo Magalh\u00e3es Ramalho, 6, 1495-165 Lisboa, Portugal"}]},{"given":"S","family":"Garrido","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"MARE - Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre\/ARNET - Aquatic Research Network, Faculdade de Ci\u00eancias, Universidade de Lisboa, Campo Grande, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal"},{"name":"Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere - IPMA, Av. Doutor Alfredo Magalh\u00e3es Ramalho, 6, 1495-165 Lisboa, Portugal"}]}],"member":"1913","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,7,30]]},"reference":[{"key":"Ref1","unstructured":"Abdi H (2010) Holm\u2019s sequential Bonferroni procedure. In: Salkind NJ (ed) Encyclopedia of research design. 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