{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,14]],"date-time":"2026-09-14T20:02:16Z","timestamp":1789416136879,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":28,"publisher":"Frontiers Media SA","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,11]],"date-time":"2025-09-11T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1757548800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["frontiersin.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Front. Dent. Med."],"abstract":"<jats:sec><jats:title>Objective<\/jats:title><jats:p>This study aims to assess the burden and long-term trends of periodontal disease at the global level, and to predict future trends.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>Age-standardized YLD rates (ASYRs) of periodontal disease were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study database. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated. The time trend of ASYRs caused by periodontal disease was quantified. ARIMA and ES models were used to predict the future trend of periodontal disease.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>In 2021, DALYs and YLDs caused by periodontal disease at the global level were 173.97 person-years and 173.97 person-years, respectively. The number of cases was 5,077,653, the prevalence rate was 27,093\/100,000, and the incidence rate was 1,855\/100,000. From 1990 to 2021, the burden of periodontal disease showed a downward trend. DALYS, YLDs and prevalence were the highest in low SDI and low-middle SDI areas, but the incidence was lower. In 2021, the incidence rate was the highest in tropical Latin America, and the DALY burden was the heaviest in high-income and low-income areas of the Commonwealth, showing the same trend globally. There was a negative correlation between periodontal disease burden and sociodemographic index (SDI). Based on the ARIMA model, the age-standardized incidence of periodontal disease is expected to decrease to 1,854.07\/100,000 by 2050. The age-standardized incidence of periodontal disease will be reduced to 1,858.60\/100,000. The ES model is more conservative, and it is expected that by 2050, the age-standardized incidence of periodontal disease will be reduced to 1,828.73\/100,000. The age-standardized incidence of periodontal disease will be reduced to 1,841.50\/100,000.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title><jats:p>ASYRs caused by global periodontal disease have decreased slightly, but they will continue to cause huge losses to healthy life in the future due to population aging and longer life expectancy. It is suggested that the prevention and treatment of periodontal disease should be carried out effectively in combination with the distribution characteristics and causes of periodontal disease in the world.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.3389\/fdmed.2025.1643049","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,11]],"date-time":"2025-09-11T05:24:31Z","timestamp":1757568271000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":6,"title":["Epidemiological trends and incidence prediction of periodontal disease based on the Global Burden of Disease study 2021"],"prefix":"10.3389","volume":"6","author":[{"given":"Keke","family":"Zhang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yingyi","family":"Ma","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jinfang","family":"Shi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yudong","family":"Geng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1965","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,11]]},"reference":[{"key":"B1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"S23","DOI":"10.1111\/jphd.12296","article-title":"From high definition precision healthcare to precision public oral health: opportunities and challenges","volume":"80","author":"Slavkin","year":"2020","journal-title":"J Public Health Dent"},{"key":"B2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"32","DOI":"10.1902\/annals.1999.4.1.32","article-title":"Periodontitis","volume":"4","author":"Flemmig","year":"1999","journal-title":"Ann Periodontol"},{"key":"B3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"S11","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1834-7819.2009.01140.x","article-title":"Diagnosis and classification of periodontal disease","volume":"54","author":"Highfield","year":"2009","journal-title":"Aust Dent J"},{"key":"B4","first-page":"209","article-title":"Views on oral health care strategies","volume":"11","author":"Beiruti","year":"2005","journal-title":"East Mediterr Health J"},{"key":"B5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2187","DOI":"10.1902\/jop.2005.76.12.2187","article-title":"Strengthening the prevention of periodontal disease: the WHO approach","volume":"76","author":"Petersen","year":"2005","journal-title":"J Periodontol"},{"key":"B6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"609","DOI":"10.1111\/odi.12428","article-title":"Global burden of oral diseases: emerging concepts, management and interplay with systemic health","volume":"22","author":"Jin","year":"2016","journal-title":"Oral Dis"},{"key":"B7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3492","DOI":"10.4103\/jfmpc.jfmpc_866_19","article-title":"Metabolic syndrome and periodontal disease: an overview for physicians","volume":"8","author":"Srivastava","year":"2019","journal-title":"J Family Med Prim Care"},{"key":"B8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"20","DOI":"10.1016\/S1532-3382(12)70006-4","article-title":"State of the science: chronic periodontitis and systemic health","volume":"12","author":"Otomo-Corgel","year":"2012","journal-title":"J Evid Based Dent Pract"},{"key":"B9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"793898","DOI":"10.1155\/2015\/793898","article-title":"The two-way association of periodontal infection with systemic disorders: an overview","volume":"2015","author":"Nagpal","year":"2015","journal-title":"Mediators Inflamm"},{"key":"B10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1289","DOI":"10.1902\/jop.2006.050459","article-title":"Diabetes mellitus and periodontal diseases","volume":"77","author":"Mealey","year":"2006","journal-title":"J Periodontol"},{"key":"B11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"197","DOI":"10.1016\/S0020-6539(20)33890-9","article-title":"Periodontal diseases and cardiovascular events: meta-analysis of observational studies","volume":"59","author":"Blaizot","year":"2009","journal-title":"Int Dent J"},{"key":"B12","first-page":"379","article-title":"Effects of periodontal health and related factors on the oral health-related quality of life in type 2 diabetic patients with chronic periodontitis","volume":"29","author":"Li","year":"2011","journal-title":"Hua Xi Kou Qiang Yi Xue Za Zhi"},{"key":"B13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2019","DOI":"10.1038\/s41591-022-01990-1","article-title":"The Global Burden of Disease study at 30 years","volume":"28","author":"Murray","year":"2022","journal-title":"Nat Med"},{"key":"B14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"14975","DOI":"10.1007\/s11356-022-22810-6","article-title":"Assessment of social vulnerability to groundwater pollution using K-means cluster analysis","volume":"30","author":"Uzcategui-Salazar","year":"2023","journal-title":"Environ Sci Pollut Res Int"},{"key":"B15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.21010\/Ajidv17i1.1","article-title":"Arima model in predicting of COVID-19 epidemic for the Southern Africa region","volume":"17","author":"Claris","year":"2023","journal-title":"Afr J Infect Dis"},{"key":"B16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2309","DOI":"10.1186\/s12889-023-17218-x","article-title":"Application of exponential smoothing method and SARIMA model in predicting the number of admissions in a third-class hospital in Zhejiang province","volume":"23","author":"Yang","year":"2023","journal-title":"BMC Public Health"},{"key":"B17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1445","DOI":"10.1002\/JPER.21-0469","article-title":"Global, regional, and national burden of periodontitis from 1990 to 2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019","volume":"93","author":"Wu","year":"2022","journal-title":"J Periodontol"},{"key":"B18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"545","DOI":"10.3724\/zdxbyxb-2021-0321","article-title":"Global burden of periodontal disease and its relation with socioeconomic development during 1990\u20132019","volume":"50","author":"Wei","year":"2021","journal-title":"Zhejiang Da Xue Xue Bao Yi Xue Ban"},{"key":"B19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"624","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph22040624","article-title":"The global burden of periodontal disease: a narrative review on unveiling socioeconomic and health challenges","volume":"22","author":"Hashim","year":"2025","journal-title":"Int J Environ Res Public Health"},{"key":"B20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"486","DOI":"10.1186\/s12903-025-05864-z","article-title":"Global burden and trends of oral disorders among adolescent and young adult (10\u201324 years old) from 1990 to 2021","volume":"25","author":"Dai","year":"2025","journal-title":"BMC Oral Health"},{"key":"B21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2","DOI":"10.1111\/jcpe.12823","article-title":"Global smoking-attributable burden of periodontal disease in 186 countries in the year 2015","volume":"45","author":"Schwendicke","year":"2018","journal-title":"J Clin Periodontol"},{"key":"B22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"15579883211016361","DOI":"10.1177\/15579883211016361","article-title":"Men and oral health: a review of sex and gender differences","volume":"15","author":"Lipsky","year":"2021","journal-title":"Am J Mens Health"},{"key":"B23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e37","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268822000036","article-title":"Spatial epidemiological characteristics and exponential smoothing model application of tuberculosis in Qinghai Plateau, China","volume":"150","author":"Shang","year":"2022","journal-title":"Epidemiol Infect"},{"key":"B24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"879","DOI":"10.1186\/s12879-023-08864-y","article-title":"A hybrid model for hand-foot-mouth disease prediction based on ARIMA-EEMD-LSTM","volume":"23","author":"Wan","year":"2023","journal-title":"BMC Infect Dis"},{"key":"B25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1316","DOI":"10.1186\/s12889-025-22566-x","article-title":"Global burden of periodontal diseases among the working-age population from 1990 to 2021: results from the global burden of disease study 2021","volume":"25","author":"Fu","year":"2025","journal-title":"BMC Public Health"},{"key":"B26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"861","DOI":"10.1186\/s12903-025-06271-0","article-title":"Burden of severe periodontitis: new insights based on a systematic analysis from the global burden of disease study 2021","volume":"25","author":"Wu","year":"2025","journal-title":"BMC Oral Health"},{"key":"B27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1308","DOI":"10.1186\/s12903-025-06669-w","article-title":"The impact of social and commercial determinants on the unequal increase of oral disorder disease burdens across global, regional, and national contexts","volume":"25","author":"Lai","year":"2025","journal-title":"BMC Oral Health"},{"key":"B28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"122","DOI":"10.3290\/j.qi.b1763677","article-title":"Inequities in periodontal disease prevalence, prevention, and management","volume":"53","author":"Mills","year":"2022","journal-title":"Quintessence Int"}],"container-title":["Frontiers in Dental Medicine"],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/articles\/10.3389\/fdmed.2025.1643049\/full","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,11]],"date-time":"2025-09-11T05:24:32Z","timestamp":1757568272000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/articles\/10.3389\/fdmed.2025.1643049\/full"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,11]]},"references-count":28,"alternative-id":["10.3389\/fdmed.2025.1643049"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/fdmed.2025.1643049","relation":{},"ISSN":["2673-4915"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2673-4915","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,11]]},"article-number":"1643049"}}