{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,12]],"date-time":"2026-04-12T06:23:46Z","timestamp":1775975026330,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":33,"publisher":"Frontiers Media SA","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,2,24]],"date-time":"2023-02-24T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1677196800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["frontiersin.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Front. Endocrinol."],"abstract":"<jats:sec><jats:title>Background<\/jats:title><jats:p>Conditional survival (CS) is defined as the possibility of further survival after patients have survived for several years since diagnosis. This may be highly valuable for real-time prognostic monitoring, especially when considering individualized factors. Such prediction tools were lacking for non-metastatic triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). Therefore, this study estimated CS and developed a novel CS-nomogram for real-time prediction of 10-year survival.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>We recruited 32,836 non-metastatic TNBC patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database (2010-2019), who were divided into training and validation groups according to a 7:3 ratio. The Kaplan-Meier method estimated overall survival (OS), and the CS was calculated using the formula CS(y|x) =OS(y+x)\/OS(x), where OS(x) and OS(y+x) were the survival of x- and (x+y)-years, respectively. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression identified predictors to develop the CS-nomogram.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>CS analysis reported gradual improvement in real-time survival over time since diagnosis, with 10-year OS updated annually from an initial 69.9% to 72.8%, 78.1%, 83.0%, 87.0%, 90.3%, 93.0%, 95.0%, 97.0%, and 98.9% (after 1-9 years of survival, respectively). The LASSO regression identified age, marriage, race, T status, N status, chemotherapy, surgery, and radiotherapy as predictors of CS-nomogram development. This model had a satisfactory predictive performance with a stable 10-year time-dependent area under the curves (AUCs) between 0.75 and 0.86.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title><jats:p>Survival of non-metastatic TNBC survivors improved dynamically and non-linearly with survival time. The study developed a CS-nomogram that provided more accurate prognostic data than traditional nomograms, aiding clinical decision-making and reducing patient anxiety.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.3389\/fendo.2023.1119105","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,2,24]],"date-time":"2023-02-24T07:59:21Z","timestamp":1677225561000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":26,"title":["A novel conditional survival nomogram for monitoring real-time prognosis of non-metastatic triple-negative breast cancer"],"prefix":"10.3389","volume":"14","author":[{"given":"Xiangdi","family":"Meng","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Yuanyuan","family":"Cai","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Xiaolong","family":"Chang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Yinghua","family":"Guo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1965","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,2,24]]},"reference":[{"key":"B1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3892\/ijo.2020.5135","article-title":"Triple\u2212Negative breast cancer therapy: Current and future perspectives (Review)","volume":"57","author":"Won","year":"2020","journal-title":"Int J Oncol"},{"key":"B2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fmolb.2022.836417","article-title":"Triple-negative breast cancer: A brief review about epidemiology, risk factors, signaling pathways, treatment and role of artificial intelligence","volume":"9","author":"Almansour","year":"2022","journal-title":"Front Mol Biosci"},{"key":"B3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2078","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph17062078","article-title":"Triple-negative breast cancer: A review of conventional and advanced therapeutic strategies","volume":"17","author":"Medina","year":"2020","journal-title":"Int J Environ Res Public Health"},{"key":"B4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/jnci\/djv048","article-title":"Annual report to the nation on the status of cancer, 1975-2011, featuring incidence of breast cancer subtypes by Race\/Ethnicity, poverty, and state","volume":"107","author":"Kohler","year":"2015","journal-title":"J Natl Cancer Institute"},{"key":"B5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1432","DOI":"10.1186\/s13058-020-01296-5","article-title":"Triple-negative breast cancer molecular subtyping and treatment progress","volume":"22","author":"Yin","year":"2020","journal-title":"Breast Cancer Res BCR"},{"key":"B6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.12688\/f1000research.18888.1","article-title":"Triple-negative breast cancer: Recent treatment advances","volume":"8","author":"Bergin","year":"2019","journal-title":"F1000Research"},{"key":"B7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1200\/jco.2007.14.4147","article-title":"Response to neoadjuvant therapy and long-term survival in patients with triple-negative breast cancer","volume":"26","author":"Liedtke","year":"2008","journal-title":"J Clin Oncol Off J Am Soc Clin Oncol"},{"key":"B8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"17","DOI":"10.1016\/j.clon.2018.09.006","article-title":"Outcomes for patients with non-metastatic triple-negative breast cancer in new Zealand","volume":"31","author":"James","year":"2019","journal-title":"Clin Oncol (Royal Coll Radiologists (Great Britain))"},{"key":"B9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10549-020-06030-5","article-title":"A clinical calculator to predict disease outcomes in women with triple-negative breast cancer","volume":"185","author":"Polley","year":"2021","journal-title":"Breast Cancer Res Treat"},{"key":"B10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1158\/1078-0432.Ccr-14-2154","article-title":"Conditional survival: A useful concept to provide information on how prognosis evolves over time","volume":"21","author":"Hieke","year":"2015","journal-title":"Clin Cancer Res an Off J Am Assoc Cancer Res"},{"key":"B11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/cncr.28273","article-title":"Dynamic prognostication using conditional survival estimates","volume":"119","author":"Zabor","year":"2013","journal-title":"Cancer"},{"key":"B12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijsu.2021.106013","article-title":"Nomogram of conditional survival probability of long-term survival for metastatic colorectal cancer: A real-world data retrospective cohort study from seer database","volume":"92","author":"Han","year":"2021","journal-title":"Int J Surg (London England)"},{"key":"B13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1200\/jco.2009.23.0573","article-title":"Conditional survival and the choice of conditioning set for patients with colon cancer: An analysis of nsabp trials c-03 through c-07","volume":"28","author":"Zamboni","year":"2010","journal-title":"J Clin Oncol Off J Am Soc Clin Oncol"},{"key":"B14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1245\/s10434-012-2723-6","article-title":"Conditional probability of survival nomogram for 1-, 2-, and 3-year survivors after an R0 resection for gastric cancer","volume":"20","author":"Dikken","year":"2013","journal-title":"Ann Surg Oncol"},{"key":"B15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jso.26049","article-title":"Conditional survival analysis of hepatocellular carcinoma","author":"Shah","year":"2020","journal-title":"J Surg Oncol"},{"key":"B16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/bjs.11476","article-title":"Conditional survival after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and surgery for oesophageal cancer","volume":"107","author":"Hagens","year":"2020","journal-title":"Br J Surg"},{"key":"B17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/cam4.3917","article-title":"Stage-dependent conditional survival and failure hazard of non-metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma after intensity-modulated radiation therapy: Clinical implications for treatment strategies and surveillance","volume":"10","author":"Wang","year":"2021","journal-title":"Cancer Med"},{"key":"B18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2147\/cmar.S324543","article-title":"Conditional survival and annual hazard estimates of classical Hodgkin lymphoma","volume":"13","author":"Nuersulitan","year":"2021","journal-title":"Cancer Manage Res"},{"key":"B19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1245\/s10434-020-08235-w","article-title":"Conditional survival after resection for pancreatic cancer: A population-based study and prediction model","volume":"27","author":"Latenstein","year":"2020","journal-title":"Ann Surg Oncol"},{"key":"B20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fmed.2021.705515","article-title":"Risk stratification model for predicting the overall survival of elderly triple-negative breast cancer patients: A population-based study","volume":"8","author":"Liu","year":"2021","journal-title":"Front Med"},{"key":"B21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.18632\/aging.203360","article-title":"A combined hypoxia and immune gene signature for predicting survival and risk stratification in triple-negative breast cancer","volume":"13","author":"Yang","year":"2021","journal-title":"Aging"},{"key":"B22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7717\/peerj.12383","article-title":"Establishment and validation of an individualized macrophage-related gene signature to predict overall survival in patients with triple negative breast cancer","volume":"9","author":"Su","year":"2021","journal-title":"PeerJ"},{"key":"B23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00330-021-08291-0","article-title":"Development and validation of a nomogram based on pretreatment dynamic contrast-enhanced mri for the prediction of pathologic response after neoadjuvant chemotherapy for triple-negative breast cancer","volume":"32","author":"Li","year":"2022","journal-title":"Eur Radiol"},{"key":"B24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fonc.2020.608334","article-title":"Nomogram for predicting lymph node involvement in triple-negative breast cancer","volume":"10","author":"Cui","year":"2020","journal-title":"Front Oncol"},{"key":"B25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fonc.2021.690336","article-title":"A nomogram to predict disease-free survival following neoadjuvant chemotherapy for triple negative breast cancer","volume":"11","author":"Zhu","year":"2021","journal-title":"Front Oncol"},{"key":"B26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fonc.2022.829045","article-title":"Construction and validation of a prognostic risk model for triple-negative breast cancer based on autophagy-related genes","volume":"12","author":"Yan","year":"2022","journal-title":"Front Oncol"},{"key":"B27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"8","DOI":"10.1016\/j.breast.2022.08.011","article-title":"Nomogram for predicting overall survival in patients with triple-negative apocrine breast cancer: Surveillance, epidemiology, and end results-based analysis","volume":"66","author":"Xu","year":"2022","journal-title":"Breast (Edinburgh Scotland)"},{"key":"B28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nrclinonc.2016.66","article-title":"Triple-negative breast cancer: Challenges and opportunities of a heterogeneous disease","volume":"13","author":"Bianchini","year":"2016","journal-title":"Nat Rev Clin Oncol"},{"key":"B29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ctrv.2021.102223","article-title":"Precision medicine in breast cancer: From clinical trials to clinical practice","volume":"98","author":"Crimini","year":"2021","journal-title":"Cancer Treat Rev"},{"key":"B30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00428-019-02722-6","article-title":"Cd73 expression and pathologic response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in triple negative breast cancer","volume":"476","author":"Cerbelli","year":"2020","journal-title":"Virchows Archiv an Int J Pathol"},{"key":"B31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"57","DOI":"10.1007\/s11912-021-01038-6","article-title":"Emerging therapeutics for patients with triple-negative breast cancer","volume":"23","author":"Agostinetto","year":"2021","journal-title":"Curr Oncol Rep"},{"key":"B32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1200\/jco.2014.55.1713","article-title":"Prognosis and conditional disease-free survival among patients with ovarian cancer","volume":"32","author":"Kurta","year":"2014","journal-title":"J Clin Oncol Off J Am Soc Clin Oncol"},{"key":"B33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1200\/jco.2009.25.9697","article-title":"Clinical relevance of conditional survival of cancer patients in Europe: Age-specific analyses of 13 cancers","volume":"28","author":"Janssen-Heijnen","year":"2010","journal-title":"J Clin Oncol Off J Am Soc Clin Oncol"}],"container-title":["Frontiers in Endocrinology"],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/articles\/10.3389\/fendo.2023.1119105\/full","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,2,24]],"date-time":"2023-02-24T07:59:22Z","timestamp":1677225562000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/articles\/10.3389\/fendo.2023.1119105\/full"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2023,2,24]]},"references-count":33,"alternative-id":["10.3389\/fendo.2023.1119105"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/fendo.2023.1119105","relation":{},"ISSN":["1664-2392"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1664-2392","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2023,2,24]]},"article-number":"1119105"}}