{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,28]],"date-time":"2026-07-28T15:26:45Z","timestamp":1785252405525,"version":"3.55.0"},"reference-count":20,"publisher":"Frontiers Media SA","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,12,19]],"date-time":"2024-12-19T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1734566400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["frontiersin.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Front. Endocrinol."],"abstract":"<jats:sec><jats:title>Objective<\/jats:title><jats:p>To build a prediction nomogram for early prediction of live birth probabilities according to number of oocytes retrieved in women \u2264 35 years of age.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>A prediction model was built including 9265 infertile women \u2264 35 years of age accepting their first ovum pick-up cycle from January 2018 to December 2022. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was performed to identify independent predictors and establish a nomogram to predict reproductive outcomes. Both discrimination and calibration were assessed by bootstrapping with 1000 resamples.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>The critical threshold for the number of retrieved oocytes associated with cumulative live birth was determined as 10.5 (AUC: 0.824). Consequently, a nomogram was constructed to predict the likelihood of obtaining fewer than 10 oocytes at one oocyte retrieval cycle. There were five indicators significantly related to the risk of obtaining less than 10 oocytes at one oocyte retrieval cycle, including age, antral follicle count (AFC), anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH), follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH), and FSH to luteinizing hormone ratio. These factors were subsequently used to develop a nomogram prediction model. The model\u2019s performance was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC), concordance index (C-index), and calibration curves, which indicated fair predictive ability and good calibration.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title><jats:p>We developed and validated a nomogram based on five ovarian reserve indicators to predict the risk of retrieving fewer than 10 oocytes at one oocyte retrieval cycle in women \u2264 35 years of age. The model demonstrated good discrimination and calibration, indicating its reliability for clinical application. This nomogram offers a practical and accurate tool for early identification of young women with potentially decreased ovarian reserve, enabling timely intervention and personalized management strategies.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.3389\/fendo.2024.1401385","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,12,19]],"date-time":"2024-12-19T05:10:34Z","timestamp":1734585034000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4,"title":["A nomogram model to predict the high risk of lower live birth probability in young women undergoing the first IVF-ET cycle: a retrospective study"],"prefix":"10.3389","volume":"15","author":[{"given":"Chang","family":"Liu","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Peipei","family":"Pan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Beihai","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yili","family":"Teng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1965","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,12,19]]},"reference":[{"key":"B1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"591","DOI":"10.1007\/s10815-022-02439-7","article-title":"Revisiting selected ethical aspects of current clinical in vitro fertilization (IVF) practice","volume":"39","author":"von Schondorf-Gleicher","year":"2022","journal-title":"J Assisted Reprod Genet"},{"key":"B2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.fertnstert.2013.12.032","article-title":"Female age-related fertility decline","volume":"101","year":"2014","journal-title":"Fertility and sterility"},{"key":"B3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"15","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ogc.2014.09.005","article-title":"Age-related infertility","volume":"42","author":"Crawford","year":"2015","journal-title":"Obstet Gynecol Clinics North Am"},{"key":"B4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"65","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2021.4788","article-title":"Diagnosis and management of infertility: A review","volume":"326","author":"Carson","year":"2021","journal-title":"Jama"},{"key":"B5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/humrep\/dead147","article-title":"Using serum anti-M\u00fcllerian hormone levels to predict the chance of live birth after spontaneous or assisted conception: a systematic review and meta-analysis","volume":"38","author":"Peign\u00e9","year":"2023","journal-title":"Hum Reprod (Oxford England)"},{"key":"B6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01443615.2021.1922996","article-title":"Effect of chronological age of patients with diminished ovarian reserve on in vitro fertilization outcome","volume":"42","author":"Li","year":"2022","journal-title":"J Obstet Gynaecol"},{"key":"B7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11357-023-00768-8","article-title":"Ovarian aging in humans: potential strategies for extending reproductive lifespan","volume":"45","author":"Cavalcante","year":"2023","journal-title":"GeroScience"},{"key":"B8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0300060517704140","article-title":"Predicting the outcome of different protocols of in vitro fertilization with anti-Mu\u00fcllerian hormone levels in patients with polycystic ovary syndrome","volume":"45","author":"Chen","year":"2017","journal-title":"J Int Med Res"},{"key":"B9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/humrep\/dex234","article-title":"The international glossary on infertility and fertility care, 2017","volume":"32","author":"Zegers-Hochschild","year":"2017","journal-title":"Hum Reprod (Oxford England)"},{"key":"B10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"15426","DOI":"10.3390\/ijms232315426","article-title":"Ovarian reserve disorders, can we prevent them? 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