{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,11]],"date-time":"2026-08-11T04:34:45Z","timestamp":1786422885232,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":42,"publisher":"Frontiers Media SA","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,15]],"date-time":"2025-10-15T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1760486400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["frontiersin.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Front. Endocrinol."],"abstract":"<jats:sec><jats:title>Background<\/jats:title><jats:p>This study aimed to comprehensively assess the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on the global burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) using data from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2021.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>Age-standardized T2DM prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were analyzed from Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2021. Pre-pandemic (2010\u20132019) and post-pandemic (2020\u20132021) periods were defined to capture pandemic onset, with 2020\u20132021 as the earliest available global post-pandemic data. Expected annual percentage changes (EAPC) were derived to assess the magnitude and direction of trends over the study period, adjusting for age, sex, and sociodemographic index. Post-pandemic projections to 2030 employed a Bayesian model with pre-\/post-pandemic slope comparisons.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>Global T2DM prevalence (ages \u226520) rose from 6,887.07 per 100,000 in 2010 to 9,545.42 per 100,000 in 2021. Post-pandemic acceleration was observed: EAPC increased from 2.90% (95% CI: 2.86\u20132.94) pre-pandemic to 3.52% (95% CI: 3.14\u20133.90) post-pandemic. Mortality and DALYs showed similar accelerations. Despite continued increases in incidence, mortality, and DALYs, the EAPC decreased in the post-pandemic period. Projections using pre-pandemic data (up to 2019) estimated type 2 diabetes prevalence at 10368.23 per 100,000 population by 2030. However, incorporating post-pandemic data (up to 2021) increased the projected 2030 prevalence to 10694.79 per 100,000, indicating a rise of 326.56 per 100,000 attributed to the pandemic\u2019s impact. The prevalence, incidence, deaths, and DALYs of CKD due to T2DM all showed an upward trend from 2010 to 2021.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title><jats:p>A rapid increase in the burden of T2DM is found post-COVID-19 pandemic. Enhanced public health interventions are required for the prevention, screening, and management of diabetes.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.3389\/fendo.2025.1600333","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,15]],"date-time":"2025-10-15T04:24:41Z","timestamp":1760502281000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":7,"title":["The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global burden of type 2 diabetes: a study based on GBD 2021 data"],"prefix":"10.3389","volume":"16","author":[{"given":"Xiaoqin","family":"Chen","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hui","family":"Lin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yinlian","family":"Wu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mingfang","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Su","family":"Lin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jiaofeng","family":"Huang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1965","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,15]]},"reference":[{"key":"B1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/s0140-6736(23)01301-6","article-title":"Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021","volume":"402","year":"2023","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"B2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/s0140-6736(24)00757-8","article-title":"Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021","volume":"403","year":"2024","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"B3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/s0140-6736(24)00933-4","article-title":"Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021","volume":"403","year":"2024","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"B4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"Itc81","DOI":"10.7326\/aitc202406180","article-title":"Type 2 diabetes","volume":"177","author":"Crawford","year":"2024","journal-title":"Ann Intern Med"},{"key":"B5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1161\/circulationaha.118.037885","article-title":"Age at diagnosis of type 2 diabetes mellitus and associations with cardiovascular and mortality risks","volume":"139","author":"Sattar","year":"2019","journal-title":"Circulation"},{"key":"B6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1161\/hypertensionaha.122.19744","article-title":"Blood pressure and cardiorenal outcomes with finerenone in chronic kidney disease in type 2 diabetes","volume":"79","author":"Ruilope","year":"2022","journal-title":"Hypertension"},{"key":"B7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1753-0407.70098","article-title":"Global, regional, and national prevalence of chronic type 2 diabetic kidney disease from 1990 to 2021: A trend and health inequality analyses based on the global burden of disease study 2021","volume":"17","author":"He","year":"2025","journal-title":"J Diabetes"},{"key":"B8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"10222","DOI":"10.3390\/ijms251810222","article-title":"Novel insights into diabetic kidney disease","volume":"25","author":"M\u0142ynarska","year":"2024","journal-title":"Int J Mol Sci"},{"key":"B9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2020.12839","article-title":"Pathophysiology, transmission, diagnosis, and treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): A review","volume":"324","author":"Wiersinga","year":"2020","journal-title":"Jama"},{"key":"B10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1105","DOI":"10.3390\/children10071105","article-title":"Increase of prevalence of obesity and metabolic syndrome in children and adolescents in korea during the COVID-19 pandemic: A cross-sectional study using the KNHANES","volume":"10","author":"Choi","year":"2023","journal-title":"Children (Basel)"},{"key":"B11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1159\/000525298","article-title":"Weight gain in children during the COVID-19 pandemic and the protective effect of lifestyle intervention in children with obesity","volume":"15","author":"Lubrecht","year":"2022","journal-title":"Obes Facts"},{"key":"B12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00125-022-05833-z","article-title":"Diabetes and the COVID-19 pandemic","volume":"66","author":"Khunti","year":"2023","journal-title":"Diabetologia"},{"key":"B13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fcimb.2021.753721","article-title":"The impact of ACE2 polymorphisms on COVID-19 disease: susceptibility, severity, and therapy","volume":"11","author":"Chen","year":"2021","journal-title":"Front Cell Infect Microbiol"},{"key":"B14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"11","DOI":"10.1038\/s41387-023-00241-7","article-title":"Severe COVID-19 associated hyperglycemia is caused by beta cell dysfunction: a prospective cohort study","volume":"13","author":"Gojda","year":"2023","journal-title":"Nutr Diabetes"},{"key":"B15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fimmu.2020.01582","article-title":"The effects of type 2 diabetes mellitus on organ metabolism and the immune system","volume":"11","author":"Daryabor","year":"2020","journal-title":"Front Immunol"},{"key":"B16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3803\/EnM.2024.1951","article-title":"Glucocorticoid-induced hyperglycemia: A neglected problem","volume":"39","author":"Cho","year":"2024","journal-title":"Endocrinol Metab (Seoul)"},{"key":"B17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00125-022-05670-0","article-title":"Incidence of newly diagnosed diabetes after Covid-19","volume":"65","author":"Rathmann","year":"2022","journal-title":"Diabetologia"},{"key":"B18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1068","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cmet.2020.04.021","article-title":"Association of blood glucose control and outcomes in patients with COVID-19 and pre-existing type 2 diabetes","volume":"31","author":"Zhu","year":"2020","journal-title":"Cell Metab"},{"key":"B19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/s1473-3099(21)00448-5","article-title":"Global burden and trends of sexually transmitted infections from 1990 to 2019: an observational trend study","volume":"22","author":"Zheng","year":"2022","journal-title":"Lancet Infect Dis"},{"key":"B20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10654-016-0149-3","article-title":"Statistical tests, P values, confidence intervals, and power: a guide to misinterpretations","volume":"31","author":"Greenland","year":"2016","journal-title":"Eur J Epidemiol"},{"key":"B21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1565","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cmet.2021.05.013","article-title":"SARS-CoV-2 infects human pancreatic \u03b2 cells and elicits \u03b2 cell impairment","volume":"33","author":"Wu","year":"2021","journal-title":"Cell Metab"},{"key":"B22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"78","DOI":"10.59556\/japi.71.0340","article-title":"Incidence of New-onset Hypertension and New-onset Type 2 Diabetes during or after SARS-CoV-2 Infection","volume":"71","author":"Gupta","year":"2023","journal-title":"J Assoc Physicians India"},{"key":"B23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"4","DOI":"10.17849\/insm-51-1-4-7.1","article-title":"Diabetes following COVID-19 infection: is it common","volume":"51","author":"Meagher","year":"2024","journal-title":"J Insur Med"},{"key":"B24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/s2213-8587(20)30238-2","article-title":"COVID-19 in people with diabetes: understanding the reasons for worse outcomes","volume":"8","author":"Apicella","year":"2020","journal-title":"Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol"},{"key":"B25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/s2213-8587(22)00044-4","article-title":"Risks and burdens of incident diabetes in long COVID: a cohort study","volume":"10","author":"Xie","year":"2022","journal-title":"Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol"},{"key":"B26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"444","DOI":"10.1186\/s12916-022-02656-y","article-title":"Risk for newly diagnosed diabetes after COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis","volume":"20","author":"Zhang","year":"2022","journal-title":"BMC Med"},{"key":"B27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jmv.28100","article-title":"Bidirectional causal associations between type 2 diabetes and COVID-19","volume":"95","author":"Cao","year":"2023","journal-title":"J Med Virol"},{"key":"B28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/obr.13550","article-title":"Obesity and weight change during the COVID-19 pandemic in children and adults: A systematic review and meta-analysis","volume":"24","author":"Anderson","year":"2023","journal-title":"Obes Rev"},{"key":"B29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/s0140-6736(23)02750-2","article-title":"Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults","volume":"403","year":"2024","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"B30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"298","DOI":"10.1017\/s0007114521000921","article-title":"Systematic review of the effects of pandemic confinements on body weight and their determinants","volume":"127","author":"Khan","year":"2022","journal-title":"Br J Nutr"},{"key":"B31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"88","DOI":"10.1038\/nrendo.2017.151","article-title":"Global aetiology and epidemiology of type 2 diabetes mellitus and its complications","volume":"14","author":"Zheng","year":"2018","journal-title":"Nat Rev Endocrinol"},{"key":"B32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.pcd.2021.01.003","article-title":"Impact of lockdown COVID-19 on metabolic control in type 2 diabetes mellitus and healthy people","volume":"15","author":"Karatas","year":"2021","journal-title":"Prim Care Diabetes"},{"key":"B33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/dom.14380","article-title":"Effects of the COVID-19 lockdown on glycaemic control in subjects with type 2 diabetes: the glycalock study","volume":"23","author":"D'Onofrio","year":"2021","journal-title":"Diabetes Obes Metab"},{"key":"B34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2337\/dc21-0930","article-title":"Risks of and from SARS-coV-2 infection and COVID-19 in people with diabetes: A systematic review of reviews","volume":"44","author":"Hartmann-Boyce","year":"2021","journal-title":"Diabetes Care"},{"key":"B35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2196\/47436","article-title":"Design and early use of the nationally implemented healthier you national health service digital diabetes prevention programme: mixed methods study","volume":"25","author":"Ross","year":"2023","journal-title":"J Med Internet Res"},{"key":"B36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/s2213-8587(17)30412-6","article-title":"Cardiovascular outcomes with glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists in patients with type 2 diabetes: a meta-analysis","volume":"6","author":"Bethel","year":"2018","journal-title":"Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol"},{"key":"B37","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/21501327211044888","article-title":"The impact of COVID-19 lockdown on diabetes complication and diabetes management in people with diabetes in Indonesia","volume":"12","author":"Kshanti","year":"2021","journal-title":"J Prim Care Community Health"},{"key":"B38","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"100","DOI":"10.1186\/s12933-015-0260-x","article-title":"Delay in treatment intensification increases the risks of cardiovascular events in patients with type 2 diabetes","volume":"14","author":"Paul","year":"2015","journal-title":"Cardiovasc Diabetol"},{"key":"B39","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2522\/ptj.20080020","article-title":"Epidemiology of diabetes and diabetes-related complications","volume":"88","author":"Deshpande","year":"2008","journal-title":"Phys Ther"},{"key":"B40","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/edm2.81","article-title":"Prevalence of diabetes and cardio-metabolic risk factors in young men in the United Arab Emirates: A cross-sectional national survey","volume":"2","author":"Alzaabi","year":"2019","journal-title":"Endocrinol Diabetes Metab"},{"key":"B41","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"194","DOI":"10.1038\/s41574-022-00793-1","article-title":"Applying the WHO global targets for diabetes mellitus","volume":"19","author":"Cheng","year":"2023","journal-title":"Nat Rev Endocrinol"},{"key":"B42","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2337\/dc19-1425","article-title":"Early outcomes from the english national health service diabetes prevention programme","volume":"43","author":"Valabhji","year":"2020","journal-title":"Diabetes Care"}],"container-title":["Frontiers in Endocrinology"],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/articles\/10.3389\/fendo.2025.1600333\/full","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,15]],"date-time":"2025-10-15T04:24:42Z","timestamp":1760502282000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/articles\/10.3389\/fendo.2025.1600333\/full"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,15]]},"references-count":42,"alternative-id":["10.3389\/fendo.2025.1600333"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/fendo.2025.1600333","relation":{},"ISSN":["1664-2392"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1664-2392","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,15]]},"article-number":"1600333"}}