{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,3]],"date-time":"2026-08-03T20:58:27Z","timestamp":1785790707748,"version":"3.56.0"},"reference-count":34,"publisher":"Frontiers Media SA","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,11,25]],"date-time":"2022-11-25T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1669334400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100010269","name":"Wellcome Trust","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100010269","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["frontiersin.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Front. Epidemiol."],"abstract":"<jats:sec><jats:title>Background<\/jats:title><jats:p>Determining the reproductive rate and how it varies over time and space (R<jats:sub>T<\/jats:sub>) provides important insight to understand transmission of a given disease and inform optimal strategies for controlling or eliminating it. Estimating R<jats:sub>T<\/jats:sub> for malaria is difficult partly due to the widespread use of interventions and immunity to disease masking incident infections. A malaria outbreak in Praia, Cabo Verde in 2017 provided a unique opportunity to estimate R<jats:sub>T<\/jats:sub> directly, providing a proxy for the intensity of vector-human contact and measure the impact of vector control measures.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>Out of 442 confirmed malaria cases reported in 2017 in Praia, 321 (73%) were geolocated and informed this analysis. R<jats:sub>T<\/jats:sub> was calculated using the joint likelihood of transmission between two cases, based on the time (serial interval) and physical distance (spatial interval) between them. Log-linear regression was used to estimate factors associated with changes in R<jats:sub>T<\/jats:sub>, including the impact of vector control interventions. A geostatistical model was developed to highlight areas receptive to transmission where vector control activities could be focused in future to prevent or interrupt transmission.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>The R<jats:sub>T<\/jats:sub> from individual cases ranged between 0 and 11 with a median serial- and spatial-interval of 34 days [interquartile range (IQR): 17\u201352] and 1,347 m (IQR: 832\u20131,985 m), respectively. The number of households receiving indoor residual spraying (IRS) 4 weeks prior was associated with a reduction in R<jats:sub>T<\/jats:sub> by 0.84 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.80\u20130.89; <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>-value &amp;lt;0.001] in the peak-and post-epidemic compared to the pre-epidemic period.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title><jats:p>Identifying the effect of reduced human-vector contact through IRS is essential to determining optimal intervention strategies that modify the likelihood of malaria transmission and can inform optimal intervention strategies to accelerate time to elimination. The distance within which two cases are plausibly linked is important for the potential scale of any reactive interventions as well as classifying infections as imported or introduced and confirming malaria elimination.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.3389\/fepid.2022.1031230","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,11,25]],"date-time":"2022-11-25T04:48:14Z","timestamp":1669351694000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Factors related to human-vector contact that modify the likelihood of malaria transmission during a contained Plasmodium falciparum outbreak in Praia, Cabo Verde"],"prefix":"10.3389","volume":"2","author":[{"given":"Gillian","family":"Stresman","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Adilson Jos\u00e9","family":"DePina","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Luca","family":"Nelli","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Davidson D. S.","family":"Monteiro","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Silv\u00e2nia da Veiga","family":"Leal","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ant\u00f3nio Lima","family":"Moreira","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ullardina Domingos","family":"Furtado","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jerlie C. Loko","family":"Roka","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"John","family":"Neatherlin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Carolina","family":"Gomes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Abderrahmane Kharchi","family":"Tfeil","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kimberly A.","family":"Lindblade","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1965","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,11,25]]},"reference":[{"key":"B1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e1002588","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.ppat.1002588","article-title":"Ross, Macdonald, and a theory for the dynamics and control of mosquito-transmitted pathogens","volume":"8","author":"Smith","year":"2012","journal-title":"PLoS Pathog."},{"key":"B2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"102","DOI":"10.1007\/978-90-481-2313-1_5","article-title":"The effective reproduction number as a prelude to statistical estimation of time-dependent epidemic trends","volume-title":"Mathematical and Statistical Estimation Approaches in Epidemiolog","author":"Nishiura","year":"2009"},{"key":"B3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"113","DOI":"10.1007\/s00285-020-01503-z","article-title":"Long-lasting insecticidal nets and the quest for malaria eradication: a mathematical modeling approach","volume":"81","author":"Enahoro","year":"2020","journal-title":"J Math Biol."},{"key":"B4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1525","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.20-0250","article-title":"Malaria transmission, infection, and disease following sustained indoor residual spraying of insecticide in Tororo, Uganda","volume":"103","author":"Nankabirwa","year":"2020","journal-title":"Am J Trop Med Hyg."},{"key":"B5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e42","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pbio.0050042","article-title":"Revisiting the basic reproductive number for malaria and its implications for malaria control","volume":"5","author":"Smith","year":"2007","journal-title":"PLoS Biol."},{"key":"B6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"207","DOI":"10.1038\/nature15535","article-title":"The effect of malaria control on Plasmodium falciparum in Africa between 2000 and 2015","volume":"526","author":"Bhatt","year":"2015","journal-title":"Nature."},{"key":"B7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"181","DOI":"10.1186\/s12936-022-04192-9","article-title":"The Centres for Disease Control light trap (CDC-LT) and the human decoy trap (HDT) compared to the human landing catch (HLC) for measuring Anopheles biting in rural Tanzania","volume":"21","author":"Namango","year":"2022","journal-title":"Malar J."},{"key":"B8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e35832","DOI":"10.7554\/eLife.35832.045","article-title":"Quantification of anti-parasite and anti-disease immunity to malaria as a function of age and exposure","author":"Rodriguez-Barraquer","year":"2018","journal-title":"eLife"},{"key":"B9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"928","DOI":"10.3389\/fimmu.2020.00928","article-title":"Selection of antibody responses associated with Plasmodium falciparum infections in the context of malaria elimination","volume":"11","author":"van den Hoogen","year":"2020","journal-title":"Front Immunol."},{"key":"B10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"953","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(20)30059-1","article-title":"Association between the proportion of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax infections detected by passive surveillance and the magnitude of the asymptomatic reservoir in the community: a pooled analysis of paired health facility and community data","volume":"20","author":"Stresman","year":"2020","journal-title":"Lancet Infect Dis."},{"key":"B11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"236","DOI":"10.1186\/s12936-018-2376-4","article-title":"Achievement of malaria pre-elimination in Cape Verde according to the data collected from 2010 to 2016","volume":"17","author":"DePina","year":"2018","journal-title":"Malar J."},{"key":"B12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"380","DOI":"10.1186\/s12936-020-03455-7","article-title":"Updates on malaria epidemiology and profile in Cabo Verde from 2010 to 2019: the goal of elimination","volume":"19","author":"DePina","year":"2020","journal-title":"Malar J."},{"key":"B13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"480","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2020.00480","article-title":"Comparison of commercial ELISA kits to confirm the absence of transmission in malaria elimination settings","volume":"8","author":"van den Hoogen","year":"2020","journal-title":"Front Public Health."},{"key":"B14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"172","DOI":"10.1186\/s12936-021-03708-z","article-title":"Drug resistance profile and clonality of Plasmodium falciparum parasites in Cape Verde: the 2017 Malaria Outbreak","volume":"20","author":"Da Veiga Leal","year":"2021","journal-title":"Malar J."},{"key":"B15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3","DOI":"10.1186\/s41182-018-0127-4","article-title":"Spatiotemporal characterisation and risk factor analysis of malaria outbreak in Cabo Verde in 2017","volume":"47","author":"DePina","year":"2019","journal-title":"Trop Med Health."},{"key":"B16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2476","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-018-04577-y","article-title":"Estimating spatiotemporally varying malaria reproduction numbers in a near elimination setting","volume":"9","author":"Routledge","year":"2018","journal-title":"Nat Commun."},{"key":"B17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"14495","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-021-93238-0","article-title":"Inference of malaria reproduction numbers in three elimination settings by combining temporal data and distance metrics","volume":"11","author":"Routledge","year":"2021","journal-title":"Sci Rep."},{"key":"B18","volume-title":"TanDEM-X Ground Segment - DEM Products Specification Document","author":"Wessel","year":"2018"},{"key":"B19","first-page":"18","article-title":"Classification and regression by randomForest","volume":"2","author":"Liaw","year":"2002","journal-title":"R News."},{"key":"B20","author":"Therneau","year":"2019","journal-title":"Recursive partitioning and regression trees"},{"key":"B21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"378","DOI":"10.32614\/RJ-2017-066","article-title":"glmmTMB Balances speed and flexibility among packages for zero-inflated generalized linear mixed modeling","volume":"9","author":"Brooks","year":"2017","journal-title":"R J."},{"key":"B22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e1001885","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1001885","article-title":"The reporting of studies conducted using observational routinely-collected health data (RECORD) statement","volume":"12","author":"Benchimol","year":"2015","journal-title":"PLoS Med."},{"key":"B23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"377","DOI":"10.1128\/CMR.00051-10","article-title":"Epidemiology and infectivity of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax gametocytes in relation to malaria control and elimination","volume":"24","author":"Bousema","year":"2011","journal-title":"Clin Microbiol Rev."},{"key":"B24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e09520","DOI":"10.7554\/eLife.09520","article-title":"Mapping residual transmission for malaria elimination","volume":"4","author":"Reiner","year":"2015","journal-title":"Elife."},{"key":"B25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"579","DOI":"10.1093\/jmedent\/34.6.579","article-title":"Mosquito (Diptera: Culicidae) dispersal\u2013the long and short of it","volume":"34","author":"Service","year":"1997","journal-title":"J Med Entomol."},{"key":"B26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"404","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586-019-1622-4","article-title":"Windborne long-distance migration of malaria mosquitoes in the Sahel","volume":"574","author":"Huestis","year":"2019","journal-title":"Nature."},{"key":"B27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1568","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(21)00072-4","article-title":"Sources of persistent malaria transmission in a setting with effective malaria control in eastern Uganda: a longitudinal, observational cohort study","volume":"21","author":"Andolina","year":"2021","journal-title":"Lancet Infect Dis."},{"key":"B28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e1003370","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1003370","article-title":"Quantifying Plasmodium falciparum infections clustering within households to inform household-based intervention strategies for malaria control programs: an observational study and meta-analysis from 41 malaria-endemic countries","volume":"17","author":"Stresman","year":"2020","journal-title":"PLoS Med."},{"key":"B29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"452","DOI":"10.1186\/s12936-020-03527-8","article-title":"Prevention of re-establishment of malaria: historical perspective and future prospects","volume":"19","author":"Nasir","year":"2020","journal-title":"Malar J"},{"key":"B30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"511","DOI":"10.1016\/j.pt.2009.08.002","article-title":"Predicting changing malaria risk after expanded insecticide-treated net coverage in Africa","volume":"25","author":"Smith","year":"2009","journal-title":"Trends Parasitol."},{"key":"B31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"38","DOI":"10.1080\/20477724.2021.1951556","article-title":"Epidemiological profile of imported malaria cases in the prevention of reestablishment phase in Sri Lanka","volume":"116","author":"Dharmawardena","year":"2022","journal-title":"Pathog Glob Health"},{"key":"B32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1230","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1251449","article-title":"Public health. Measuring the path toward malaria elimination","volume":"344","author":"Churcher","year":"2014","journal-title":"Science."},{"key":"B33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"338","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.94.1.338","article-title":"Heterogeneities in the transmission of infectious agents: implications for the design of control programs","volume":"94","author":"Woolhouse","year":"1997","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A."},{"key":"B34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"185","DOI":"10.1093\/trstmh\/tru026","article-title":"Recasting the theory of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control","volume":"108","author":"Smith","year":"2014","journal-title":"Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg."}],"container-title":["Frontiers in Epidemiology"],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/articles\/10.3389\/fepid.2022.1031230\/full","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2022,11,25]],"date-time":"2022-11-25T04:48:20Z","timestamp":1669351700000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/articles\/10.3389\/fepid.2022.1031230\/full"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2022,11,25]]},"references-count":34,"alternative-id":["10.3389\/fepid.2022.1031230"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/fepid.2022.1031230","relation":{},"ISSN":["2674-1199"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2674-1199","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2022,11,25]]},"article-number":"1031230"}}