{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,3]],"date-time":"2026-09-03T07:15:27Z","timestamp":1788419727371,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":20,"publisher":"Frontiers Media SA","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,3]],"date-time":"2026-09-03T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1788393600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000076","name":"Directorate for Biological Sciences","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000076","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["frontiersin.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Front. Epidemiol."],"abstract":"<jats:p>To understand the nature of the current measles outbreaks taking place across the United States in 2026, we analyzed historical surveillance data dating back to 1997 using four distinct forecasting models. By withholding data from the first four months of 2026 for out-of-sample validation, we evaluated how well traditional trend tracking and temporal dependence could anticipate this year's trajectory. While models incorporating short-term patterns performed best overall, every single model underestimated the cumulative cases recorded by May 1, 2026. This systematic underprediction reveals that the ongoing resurgence cannot be explained merely as a continuation of past trends or 2025 outbreak effects. Instead, 2026 represents a distinct, more severe outbreak regime, as the projected annual burden was already reached by May. These findings indicate that public health tracking must adapt to this heightened risk environment, and warn that the final 2026 case burden will substantially exceed that of previous years.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3389\/fepid.2026.1921780","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,3]],"date-time":"2026-09-03T06:41:19Z","timestamp":1788417679000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Insights on United States cumulative measles cases during the 2026 outbreak using ARIMA and generalized linear models"],"prefix":"10.3389","volume":"6","author":[{"given":"Antonio","family":"Gondim","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Mathematics, University of Miami","place":["Coral Gables, FL, United States"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Chidozie W.","family":"Chukwu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Mathematical Sciences, Georgia Southern University","place":["Statesboro, GA, United States"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Folashade B.","family":"Agusto","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Kansas","place":["Lawrence, KS, United States"]},{"name":"Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, North-West University","place":["Potchefstroom, South Africa"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Joshua","family":"Ologbonyo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Mathematics and Statistics, Mercer University","place":["Macon, GA, United States"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1965","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,3]]},"reference":[{"key":"B1","first-page":"120","article-title":"Measles-United States, 2000","volume":"51","year":"2002","journal-title":"MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep"},{"key":"B2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1520","DOI":"10.1086\/656914","article-title":"Measles in the United States during the postelimination era","volume":"202","author":"Fiebelkorn","year":"2010","journal-title":"J Infect Dis"},{"key":"B3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4899-3242-6","volume-title":"Generalized Linear Models","author":"McCullagh","year":"1989"},{"key":"B4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511973420","volume-title":"Negative Binomial Regression","author":"Hilbe","year":"2011"},{"key":"B5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"547","DOI":"10.2307\/2983331","article-title":"A statistical algorithm for the early detection of outbreaks of infectious disease","volume":"159","author":"Farrington","year":"1996","journal-title":"J R Stat Soc Ser A"},{"key":"B6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"187","DOI":"10.1191\/1471082X05st098oa","article-title":"A statistical framework for the analysis of multivariate infectious disease surveillance counts","volume":"5","author":"Held","year":"2005","journal-title":"Stat Modell"},{"key":"B7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.18637\/jss.v082.i05","article-title":"tscount: an R package for analysis of count time series following generalized linear models","volume":"82","author":"Liboschik","year":"2017","journal-title":"J Stat Softw"},{"key":"B8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1093\/oso\/9780198545996.001.0001","volume-title":"Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control","author":"Anderson","year":"1991"},{"key":"B9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"893","DOI":"10.15585\/mmwr.mm6840e2","article-title":"National update on measles cases and outbreaks-United States, January 1\u2013October 1, 2019","volume":"68","author":"Patel","year":"2019","journal-title":"MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep"},{"key":"B10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"233","DOI":"10.15585\/mmwr.mm7414a1","article-title":"Measles update-United States, January 1-April 17, 2025","volume":"74","author":"Mathis","year":"2025","journal-title":"MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep"},{"key":"B11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"23","DOI":"10.26443\/mjgh.v14i1.1548","article-title":"Time series analysis of measles incidence in Nigeria using surveillance data from 2011 to 2022","volume":"14","author":"Ojasanya","year":"2025","journal-title":"McGill J Glob Health"},{"key":"B12","volume-title":"Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control","author":"Box","year":"2015"},{"key":"B13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.18637\/jss.v027.i03","article-title":"Automatic time series forecasting: the forecast package for R","volume":"27","author":"Hyndman","year":"2008","journal-title":"J Stat Softw"},{"key":"B14","volume-title":"Forecasting: Principles and Practice","author":"Hyndman","year":"2021"},{"key":"B15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"530","DOI":"10.1186\/s12879-026-12720-0","article-title":"Forecasting and quantifying the role of vaccination strategies in the 2025 Texas measles outbreak: a modeling and time series analysis approach","volume":"26","author":"Chukwu","year":"2026","journal-title":"BMC Infect Dis"},{"key":"B16","year":""},{"key":"B17","year":""},{"key":"B18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"100778","DOI":"10.1016\/j.mlwa.2025.100778","article-title":"Time series modeling of monkeypox incidence in Central Africa\u2019s endemic regions","volume":"22","author":"Chukwu","year":"2025","journal-title":"Mach Learn Appl"},{"key":"B19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"562","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph22040562","article-title":"Predictive modeling for pandemic forecasting: a COVID-19 study in New Zealand and partner countries","volume":"22","author":"Baker","year":"2025","journal-title":"Int J Environ Res Public Health"},{"key":"B20","author":"Baker","year":""}],"container-title":["Frontiers in Epidemiology"],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/articles\/10.3389\/fepid.2026.1921780\/full","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,3]],"date-time":"2026-09-03T06:41:21Z","timestamp":1788417681000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/articles\/10.3389\/fepid.2026.1921780\/full"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,3]]},"references-count":20,"alternative-id":["10.3389\/fepid.2026.1921780"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/fepid.2026.1921780","relation":{},"ISSN":["2674-1199"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2674-1199","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,3]]},"article-number":"1921780"}}