{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,9]],"date-time":"2026-10-09T04:44:47Z","timestamp":1791521087652,"version":"4.3.4"},"reference-count":48,"publisher":"Frontiers Media SA","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,1,20]],"date-time":"2022-01-20T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1642636800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["frontiersin.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Front. Immunol."],"abstract":"<jats:sec><jats:title>Objective<\/jats:title><jats:p>This study aimed to develop a risk of psoriatic arthritis (PsA) predictive model for plaque psoriasis patients based on the available features.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>Patients with plaque psoriasis or PsA were recruited. The characteristics, skin lesions, and nail clinical manifestations of the patients have been collected. The least absolute shrinkage was used to optimize feature selection, and logistic regression analysis was applied to further select features and build a PsA risk predictive model. Calibration, discrimination, and clinical utility of the prediction model were evaluated by using the calibration plot, C-index, the area under the curve (AUC), and decision curve analysis. Internal validation was performed using bootstrapping validation. The model was subjected to external validation with two separate cohorts.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>Age at onset, duration, nail involvement, erythematous lunula, onychorrhexis, oil drop, and subungual hyperkeratosis were presented as predictors to perform the prediction nomogram. The predictive model showed good calibration and discrimination (C-index: 0.759; 95% CI: 0.707\u20130.811). The AUC of this prediction model was 0.7578092. Excellent performances of the C-index were reached in the internal validation and external cohort validation (0.741, 0.844, and 0.845). The decision curve indicated good effect of the PsA nomogram in guiding clinical practice.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title><jats:p>This novel PsA nomogram could assess the risk of PsA in plaque psoriasis patients with good efficiency.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.3389\/fimmu.2021.740968","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,1,20]],"date-time":"2022-01-20T05:09:53Z","timestamp":1642655393000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":31,"title":["Predicting the Risk of Psoriatic Arthritis in Plaque Psoriasis Patients: Development and Assessment of a New Predictive Nomogram"],"prefix":"10.3389","volume":"12","author":[{"given":"Panpan","family":"Liu","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yehong","family":"Kuang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Li","family":"Ye","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Cong","family":"Peng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Wangqing","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Minxue","family":"Shen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mi","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Wu","family":"Zhu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Chengzhi","family":"Lv","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Xiang","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1965","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,1,20]]},"reference":[{"key":"B1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(14)61909-7","article-title":"Psoriasis","volume":"386","author":"Boehncke","year":"2015","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"B2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(07)61128-3","article-title":"Pathogenesis and Clinical Features of Psoriasis","volume":"370","author":"Griffiths","year":"2007","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"B3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMra1505557","article-title":"Psoriatic Arthritis","volume":"376","author":"Ritchlin","year":"2017","journal-title":"N Engl J Med"},{"key":"B4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(18)30830-4","article-title":"The Pathogenesis of Psoriatic Arthritis","volume":"391","author":"Veale","year":"2018","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"B5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(18)30949-8","article-title":"Clinical Management of Psoriatic Arthritis","volume":"391","author":"Van den Bosch","year":"2018","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"B6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s12016-017-8630-7","article-title":"Clinical Features of Psoriatic Arthritis: A Comprehensive Review of Unmet Clinical Needs","volume":"55","author":"McArdle","year":"2018","journal-title":"Clin Rev Allergy Immunol"},{"key":"B7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/ard.2011.150938","article-title":"Do Patients With Psoriatic Arthritis Who Present Early Fare Better Than Those Presenting Later in the Disease","volume":"70","author":"Gladman","year":"2011","journal-title":"Ann Rheum Dis"},{"key":"B8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/annrheumdis-2012-202608","article-title":"Smoking and Delay to Diagnosis Are Associated With Poorer Functional Outcome in Psoriatic Arthritis","volume":"72","author":"Tillett","year":"2013","journal-title":"Ann Rheum Dis"},{"key":"B9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/annrheumdis-2013-204858","article-title":"Diagnostic Delay of More Than 6 Months Contributes to Poor Radiographic and Functional Outcome in Psoriatic Arthritis","volume":"74","author":"Haroon","year":"2015","journal-title":"Ann Rheum Dis"},{"key":"B10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/annrheumdis-2012-201972","article-title":"Early Psoriatic Arthritis: Short Symptom Duration, Male Gender and Preserved Physical Functioning at Presentation Predict Favourable Outcome at 5-Year Follow-Up. 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