{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,29]],"date-time":"2026-04-29T18:08:55Z","timestamp":1777486135911,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":22,"publisher":"Frontiers Media SA","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,2]],"date-time":"2025-07-02T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1751414400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["frontiersin.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Front. Med."],"abstract":"<jats:sec><jats:title>Background<\/jats:title><jats:p>Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a common acute abdominal disease. The early identification of patients at risk of progression to severe AP (SAP) is crucial for developing effective therapeutic and nursing measures. Although many scoring systems exist for SAP risk assessment, none is widely accepted. Systemic inflammatory grade (SIG) is a novel systemic inflammation-based scoring system, but its relationship with AP, as well as the SAP risk prediction model involving SIG, has not been reported.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methodology<\/jats:title><jats:p>The demographic information, clinical data, and laboratory results of patients diagnosed with AP were collected. Baseline comparisons were made using the Wilcoxon rank-sum test, chi-square test and Fisher\u2019s exact test. Logistic regression analyses were used to identify independent predictors of SAP; these factors were then used to establish a nomogram model. The model\u2019s predictive efficacy and threshold values were evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration curve. The decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curve (CIC) were used to further evaluate the benefit of the model.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>Five hundred and ninety-two patients aged 18\u201392\u202fyears (median, 43\u202fyears) were included. In two stepwise regressions, SIG, C-reactive protein (CRP), prognostic nutritional index (PNI), and white blood cell (WBC) were all considered independent risk factors for SAP (<jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic> &amp;lt;\u202f0.05). A nomogram prediction model was constructed using these four factors, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.940 (95% CI: 0.907\u20130.972, <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic> &amp;lt;\u202f0.01). The AUC-ROC for 10-fold cross-validation was 0.942\u202f\u00b1\u202f0.065. The results of the Hosmer and Lemeshow goodness of fit (GoF) test (<jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>-value\u202f=\u202f0.596) and the Brier score (0.031, 95% CI 0.020\u20130.042), as well as the calibration curve, all demonstrated that the model exhibits good accuracy. DCA and CIC curves showed that the model provided good predictive value.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title><jats:p>SIG, CRP, PNI, and WBC represent promising early prognostic markers for severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). A nomogram prediction model utilizing these markers offers effective early prediction for SAP.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.3389\/fmed.2025.1564742","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,2]],"date-time":"2025-07-02T05:53:52Z","timestamp":1751435632000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["Development and validation of a visual prediction model for severe acute pancreatitis: a retrospective study"],"prefix":"10.3389","volume":"12","author":[{"given":"Xiaoli","family":"Huang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jia","family":"Xu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Xiaogang","family":"Hu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Juntao","family":"Yang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Menggang","family":"Liu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1965","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,2]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"388","DOI":"10.1186\/s12916-020-01859-5","article-title":"The global, regional, and national burden of pancreatitis in 195 countries and territories, 1990\u20132017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017","volume":"18","author":"Ouyang","year":"2020","journal-title":"BMC Med"},{"key":"ref2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"726","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(20)31310-6","article-title":"Acute pancreatitis","volume":"396","author":"Boxhoorn","year":"2020","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"ref3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"787","DOI":"10.3390\/medicina58060787","article-title":"Predicting severity of acute pancreatitis","volume":"58","author":"Lee","year":"2022","journal-title":"Medicina"},{"key":"ref4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"129","DOI":"10.4149\/BLL_2022_020","article-title":"Comparison of the predictive values of CRP, CRP\/albumin, RDW, neutrophil\/lymphocyte, and platelet\/lymphocyte levels in determining the severity of acute pancreatitis in patients with acute pancreatitis according to the BISAP score","volume":"123","author":"Karabuga","year":"2022","journal-title":"Bratisl Lek Listy"},{"key":"ref5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"77","DOI":"10.14744\/ijmb.2022.20981","article-title":"Monocyte to high-density lipoprotein and derived neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio in patients with acute pancreatitis are associated with the severity of the disease","volume":"5","author":"Erdinc","year":"2022","journal-title":"Int J Med Biochem"},{"key":"ref6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"9483","DOI":"10.2147\/IJGM.S343110","article-title":"Systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) can be an early indicator for predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis: a retrospective study","volume":"14","author":"Liu","year":"2021","journal-title":"Int J Gen Med"},{"key":"ref7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1613","DOI":"10.1080\/08941939.2022.2084187","article-title":"Systemic inflammation response index and systemic immune inflammation index are associated with clinical outcomes in patients with acute pancreatitis?","volume":"35","author":"Biyik","year":"2022","journal-title":"J Investig Surg"},{"key":"ref8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"70","DOI":"10.3390\/medicina59010070","article-title":"Controlling nutritional status (CONUT) score and prognostic nutritional index (PNI) are good candidates for prognostic markers for acute pancreatitis","volume":"59","author":"Akkuzu","year":"2022","journal-title":"Medicina"},{"key":"ref9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/MPA.0000000000002507","article-title":"Impact of etiology on predictive models for acute pancreatitis severity: a retrospective study","author":"Barrera Gutierrez","year":"2025","journal-title":"Pancreas"},{"key":"ref10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e1004432","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1004432","article-title":"A systematic review of machine learning-based prognostic models for acute pancreatitis: towards improving methods and reporting quality","volume":"22","author":"Critelli","year":"2025","journal-title":"PLoS Med"},{"key":"ref11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1828","DOI":"10.1038\/s41416-021-01308-x","article-title":"The prognostic value of combined measures of the systemic inflammatory response in patients with colon cancer: an analysis of 1700 patients","volume":"124","author":"Golder","year":"2021","journal-title":"Br J Cancer"},{"key":"ref12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"362","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jvs.2023.04.018","article-title":"The prognostic value of preoperative systemic inflammation-based scoring in patients undergoing endovascular repair of abdominal aortic aneurysm","volume":"78","author":"Bradley","year":"2023","journal-title":"J Vasc Surg"},{"key":"ref13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"102","DOI":"10.1136\/gutjnl-2012-302779","article-title":"Classification of acute pancreatitis\u20142012: revision of the Atlanta classification and definitions by international consensus","volume":"62","author":"Banks","year":"2013","journal-title":"Gut"},{"key":"ref14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2586","DOI":"10.1177\/0962280215601873","article-title":"A new approach to categorising continuous variables in prediction models: proposal and validation","volume":"26","author":"Barrio","year":"2017","journal-title":"Stat Methods Med Res"},{"key":"ref15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"273","DOI":"10.3109\/10408363.2015.1051659","article-title":"Laboratory markers predicting severity of acute pancreatitis","volume":"52","author":"Staubli","year":"2015","journal-title":"Crit Rev Clin Lab Sci"},{"key":"ref16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e19265","DOI":"10.7759\/cureus.19265","article-title":"C-reactive protein as a predictor of complicated acute pancreatitis: reality or a myth?","volume":"13","author":"Ahmad","year":"2021","journal-title":"Cureus"},{"key":"ref17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"9731854","DOI":"10.1155\/2020\/9731854","article-title":"Diagnostic value of neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio for predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis: a meta-analysis","volume":"2020","author":"Kong","year":"2020","journal-title":"Dis Markers"},{"key":"ref18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"4793","DOI":"10.2147\/JIR.S432408","article-title":"NLR48 is better than CRP, and mCTSI, and similar to BISAP and SOFA scores for mortality prediction in acute pancreatitis: a comparison of 6 scores","volume":"16","author":"Cazacu","year":"2023","journal-title":"J Inflamm Res"},{"key":"ref19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1314","DOI":"10.1097\/MPA.0000000000000432","article-title":"The acute physiology and chronic health evaluation IV, a new scoring system for predicting mortality and complications of severe acute pancreatitis","volume":"44","author":"Mok","year":"2015","journal-title":"Pancreas"},{"key":"ref20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"335","DOI":"10.1016\/j.pan.2014.07.007","article-title":"A prospective study of the Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) score in acute pancreatitis: an Indian perspective","volume":"14","author":"Senapati","year":"2014","journal-title":"Pancreatology"},{"key":"ref21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"595","DOI":"10.5754\/hge12770","article-title":"Hepcidin as a predictor of disease severity in acute pancreatitis: a single center prospective study","volume":"60","author":"Arabul","year":"2013","journal-title":"Hepatogastroenterology"},{"key":"ref22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"29351","DOI":"10.18632\/oncotarget.25486","article-title":"Comparison of the prognostic impact and combination of preoperative inflammation-based and\/or nutritional markers in patients with stage II gastric cancer","volume":"9","author":"Toyokawa","year":"2018","journal-title":"Oncotarget"}],"container-title":["Frontiers in Medicine"],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/articles\/10.3389\/fmed.2025.1564742\/full","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,2]],"date-time":"2025-07-02T05:53:53Z","timestamp":1751435633000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/articles\/10.3389\/fmed.2025.1564742\/full"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,2]]},"references-count":22,"alternative-id":["10.3389\/fmed.2025.1564742"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/fmed.2025.1564742","relation":{},"ISSN":["2296-858X"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2296-858X","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,2]]},"article-number":"1564742"}}