{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,25]],"date-time":"2026-09-25T16:31:41Z","timestamp":1790353901593,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":46,"publisher":"Frontiers Media SA","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,14]],"date-time":"2025-10-14T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1760400000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["frontiersin.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Front. Microbiol."],"abstract":"<jats:p>This study examines the spatiotemporal dynamics of <jats:italic>Bacillus anthracis<\/jats:italic>, the causative agent of anthrax, under climate change scenarios using advanced machine learning techniques. Climate change is increasingly recognized as a critical factor influencing the distribution and transmission dynamics of infectious diseases, particularly those reliant on environmental reservoirs. Our research employs Maximum Entropy (Maxent) modeling to forecast the current global distribution of <jats:italic>B. anthracis<\/jats:italic> based on climatic factors and to predict future habitat suitability under various Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) scenarios (RCP-2.6 and RCP-8.5) for the 2050\u2019s and 2070\u2019s. We identify high-risk areas where climate change may enhance the suitability for <jats:italic>B. anthracis<\/jats:italic>, emphasizing the need for proactive monitoring and early-warning systems. The findings indicate potential shifts in anthrax-endemic zones, with new regions becoming conducive to the establishment of <jats:italic>B. anthracis<\/jats:italic> due to the changing climate. Our results demonstrate the applicability of machine learning in predicting disease risk, providing a framework for public health preparedness in light of evolving environmental challenges. These insights are critical for developing targeted surveillance strategies and mitigating the introduction of zoonotic diseases in a warming environment.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3389\/fmicb.2025.1659876","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,14]],"date-time":"2025-10-14T05:25:54Z","timestamp":1760419554000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4,"title":["Spatiotemporal dynamics of Bacillus anthracis under climate change: a machine learning approach"],"prefix":"10.3389","volume":"16","author":[{"given":"Sameh M. H.","family":"Khalaf","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Monerah S. M.","family":"Alqahtani","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yousef A.","family":"Selim","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kenoz O.","family":"Elsayed","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hager A.","family":"Bendary","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1965","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,14]]},"reference":[{"key":"B1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"845","DOI":"10.3390\/d14100845","article-title":"Biogeography of black mold Aspergillus niger: Global situation and future perspective under several climate change scenarios using MaxEnt modeling.","volume":"14","author":"Alkhalifah","year":"2022","journal-title":"Diversity"},{"key":"B2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"468","DOI":"10.3390\/microorganisms11020468","article-title":"Fungus under a changing climate: Modeling the current and future global distribution of Fusarium oxysporum using geographical information system data.","volume":"11","author":"Alkhalifah","year":"2023","journal-title":"Microorganisms"},{"key":"B3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"11457","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-025-87534-2","article-title":"Evaluation of ecological consequences on the global distribution of Staphylococcus aureus Rosenbach 1884 due to climate change, using Maxent modeling.","volume":"15","author":"Alqahtani","year":"2025","journal-title":"Sci. Rep."},{"key":"B4","year":"2025","journal-title":"GBIF occurrence download."},{"key":"B5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e0004689","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0004689","article-title":"Redefining the Australian anthrax belt: Modeling the ecological niche and predicting the geographic distribution of Bacillus anthracis.","volume":"10","author":"Barro","year":"2016","journal-title":"PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis."},{"key":"B6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e02242-20","DOI":"10.1128\/AEM.02242-20","article-title":"Spatiotemporal persistence of Bacillus anthracis in the country of Georgia.","volume":"87","author":"Bezymennyi","year":"2021","journal-title":"Appl. Environ. Microbiol."},{"key":"B7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1103","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.2007.77.1103","article-title":"Modeling the geographic distribution of Bacillus anthracis, the causative agent of anthrax disease, for the contiguous United States using predictive ecological niche modeling.","volume":"77","author":"Blackburn","year":"2007","journal-title":"Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg."},{"key":"B8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"91","DOI":"10.1089\/vbz.2016.2004","article-title":"The necrophagous fly anthrax transmission pathway: Empirical and genetic evidence from wildlife epizootics.","volume":"17","author":"Blackburn","year":"2017","journal-title":"Vector-Borne Zoonotic Dis."},{"key":"B9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1111\/ddi.12144","article-title":"BIOCLIM: The first species distribution modelling package, its early applications, and relevance to most current MaxEnt studies.","volume":"20","author":"Booth","year":"2014","journal-title":"Divers. Distribut."},{"key":"B10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"555","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586-022-04788-w","article-title":"Climate change increases cross-species viral transmission risk.","volume":"607","author":"Carlson","year":"2022","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"B11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1337","DOI":"10.1038\/s41564-019-0435-4","article-title":"The global distribution of Bacillus anthracis and associated anthrax risk to humans, livestock, and wildlife.","volume":"4","author":"Carlson","year":"2019","journal-title":"Nat. Microbiol."},{"key":"B12","first-page":"148","article-title":"Climate change and plant diseases caused by Fusarium species.","volume":"112","author":"Chakraborty","year":"2022","journal-title":"Phytopathology"},{"key":"B13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"27","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1600-0587.2012.07348.x","article-title":"Collinearity: A review of methods to deal with it and a simulation study evaluating their performance.","volume":"36","author":"Dormann","year":"2013","journal-title":"Ecography"},{"key":"B14","first-page":"295","article-title":"The ecology of anthrax spores: Tough but not invincible.","volume":"36","author":"Dragon","year":"1995","journal-title":"Can. Vet. J."},{"key":"B15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"677","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.ecolsys.110308.120159","article-title":"Species distribution models: Ecological explanation and prediction across space and time.","volume":"40","author":"Elith","year":"2009","journal-title":"Ann. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst."},{"key":"B16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"43","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1472-4642.2010.00725.x","article-title":"A statistical explanation of MaxEnt for ecologists.","volume":"17","author":"Elith","year":"2011","journal-title":"Divers. Distribut."},{"key":"B17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1174","DOI":"10.3389\/fmicb.2016.01174","article-title":"Advances and limitations of disease biogeography using ecological niche modeling.","volume":"7","author":"Escobar","year":"2016","journal-title":"Front. Microbiol."},{"key":"B18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"39150","DOI":"10.1038\/srep39150","article-title":"Declining prevalence of disease vectors under climate change.","volume":"6","author":"Escobar","year":"2016","journal-title":"Sci. Rep."},{"key":"B19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1937","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd-9-1937-2016","article-title":"Overview of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization.","volume":"9","author":"Eyring","year":"2016","journal-title":"Geosci. Model Dev."},{"key":"B20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"318","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vetmic.2010.02.022","article-title":"Anthrax undervalued zoonosis.","volume":"140","author":"Fasanella","year":"2013","journal-title":"Vet. Microbiol."},{"key":"B21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1217","DOI":"10.1111\/ddi.12125","article-title":"Species distribution models in conservation biogeography: Developments and challenges.","volume":"19","author":"Franklin","year":"2013","journal-title":"Divers. Distribut."},{"key":"B22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e302","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(19)30161-6","article-title":"The effect of global change on mosquito-borne disease.","volume":"19","author":"Franklinos","year":"2019","journal-title":"Lancet Infect. Dis."},{"key":"B23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"212","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2015.02.010","article-title":"Transmission of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in China and the role of climate factors: A review.","volume":"33","author":"Hansen","year":"2019","journal-title":"Int. J. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"B24","author":"Hijmans","year":"2017","journal-title":"DIVA-GIS: A geographic information system for the analysis of species distribution data"},{"key":"B25","author":"Hijmans","year":"2012","journal-title":"DIVA-GIS (Version 7.5)."},{"key":"B26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"4947","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-020-61962-8","article-title":"Modeling current and future global distribution of Chrysomya bezziana under changing climate.","volume":"10","author":"Hosni","year":"2020","journal-title":"Sci. Rep."},{"key":"B27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"356","DOI":"10.1016\/j.mam.2009.08.003","article-title":"The ecology of Bacillus anthracis.","volume":"30","author":"Hugh-Jones","year":"2009","journal-title":"Mol. Aspects Med."},{"key":"B28","article-title":"Climate change 2021: The physical science basis","year":"2021","journal-title":"Report of the contribution of working group i to the Sixth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change."},{"key":"B29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e41017","DOI":"10.1016\/j.heliyon.2024.e41017","article-title":"Using MaxEnt modeling to analyze climate change impacts on Pseudomonas syringae van Hall, 1904 distribution on the global scale.","volume":"10","author":"Khalaf","year":"2024","journal-title":"Heliyon"},{"key":"B30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"386","DOI":"10.1016\/j.mam.2009.07.004","article-title":"Bacillus anthracis physiology and genetics.","volume":"30","author":"Koehler","year":"2009","journal-title":"Mol. Aspects Med."},{"key":"B31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1423","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vaccine.2017.01.049","article-title":"Changing livestock vaccination policy alters the epidemiology of human anthrax, Kazakhstan, 2000-2013.","volume":"35","author":"Kracalik","year":"2017","journal-title":"Vaccine"},{"key":"B32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"854","DOI":"10.1038\/s41564-019-0376-y","article-title":"Past and future spread of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus.","volume":"4","author":"Kraemer","year":"2020","journal-title":"Nat. Microbiol."},{"key":"B33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1058","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1600-0587.2013.07872.x","article-title":"A practical guide to MaxEnt for modeling species\u2019 distributions: What it does, and why inputs and settings matter.","volume":"36","author":"Merow","year":"2013","journal-title":"Ecography"},{"key":"B34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"647","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.micro.55.1.647","article-title":"Anthrax.","volume":"55","author":"Mock","year":"2001","journal-title":"Ann. Rev. Microbiol."},{"key":"B35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"869","DOI":"10.1038\/s41558-022-01426-1","article-title":"Over half of known human pathogenic diseases can be aggravated by climate change.","volume":"12","author":"Mora","year":"2022","journal-title":"Nat. Climate Change"},{"key":"B36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"23","DOI":"10.1186\/s12898-015-0054-8","article-title":"Spatio-temporal patterns of an anthrax outbreak in white-tailed deer, Odocoileus virginanus, and associated genetic diversity of Bacillus anthracis","volume":"15","author":"Mullins","year":"2015","journal-title":"BMC Ecology"},{"key":"B37","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e0247820","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0247820","article-title":"Ecological niche modeling of Bacillus anthracis on three continents: Evidence for genetic-ecological divergence?","volume":"16","author":"Mullins","year":"2021","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"B38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.23943\/princeton\/9780691136868.001.0001","author":"Peterson","year":"2011","journal-title":"Ecological niches and geographic distributions."},{"key":"B39","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"231","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2005.03.026","article-title":"Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions.","volume":"190","author":"Phillips","year":"2006","journal-title":"Ecol. Modell."},{"key":"B40","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"479","DOI":"10.1038\/s41590-020-0648-y","article-title":"Climate change: An enduring challenge for vector-borne disease prevention and control.","volume":"21","author":"Rockl\u00f6v","year":"2020","journal-title":"Nat. Immunol."},{"key":"B41","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"565","DOI":"10.1111\/2041-210X.13140","article-title":"The area under the precision-recall curve as a performance metric for rare binary events.","volume":"10","author":"Sofaer","year":"2019","journal-title":"Methods Ecol. Evol."},{"key":"B42","author":"Turnbull","year":"2008","journal-title":"Anthrax in humans and animals."},{"key":"B43","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"703","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envint.2018.09.042","article-title":"Human infectious diseases and the changing climate in the Arctic.","volume":"121","author":"Waits","year":"2018","journal-title":"Environ. Int."},{"key":"B44","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3216","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-022-07096-5","article-title":"Climatic influence on anthrax suitability in warming northern latitudes.","volume":"12","author":"Walsh","year":"2022","journal-title":"Sci. Rep."},{"key":"B45","first-page":"1123456","article-title":"Predicting the global distribution of Phytophthora infestans under climate change.","volume":"14","author":"Wang","year":"2023","journal-title":"Front. Microbiol."},{"key":"B46","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3228","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1312330110","article-title":"The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP): Project framework.","volume":"111","author":"Warszawski","year":"2021","journal-title":"Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A."}],"container-title":["Frontiers in Microbiology"],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/articles\/10.3389\/fmicb.2025.1659876\/full","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,14]],"date-time":"2025-10-14T05:25:56Z","timestamp":1760419556000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/articles\/10.3389\/fmicb.2025.1659876\/full"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,14]]},"references-count":46,"alternative-id":["10.3389\/fmicb.2025.1659876"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/fmicb.2025.1659876","relation":{},"ISSN":["1664-302X"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1664-302X","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,14]]},"article-number":"1659876"}}