{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,3]],"date-time":"2026-09-03T06:22:26Z","timestamp":1788416546962,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":47,"publisher":"Frontiers Media SA","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,26]],"date-time":"2025-02-26T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1740528000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["frontiersin.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Front. Oncol."],"abstract":"<jats:sec><jats:title>Background<\/jats:title><jats:p>Colorectal cancer (CRC) ranks among the highest in incidence and mortality rates globally. A significant portion of Colorectal cancer cases and deaths can be attributed to modifiable risk factors, with smoking, alcohol use, and high body mass index (BMI) being the three most prominent. However, the impact of these risk factors on Colorectal cancer across regions, genders, and age groups remains insufficiently characterized.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>Utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019, restrictive cubic splines (RCS) and quantile regression analyses are applied to explore the relationship between the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) and ASMR or ASDR. Additionally, gender differences, changes across different SDI levels, and age group trends in smoking, alcohol use, and high BMI over the 30-year period are analyzed. The Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model is employed to predict mortality trends from 2020 to 2030, aiming to explore the epidemiological and sociodemographic transitions in the Colorectal cancer disease burden attributed to smoking, alcohol use, and high BMI.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>In 2019, the number of colorectal cancer deaths globally attributable to risk factors as smoking, alcohol consumption, and obesity increased to 142,931, 52,495, and 85,882 cases respectively, collectively accounting for approximately one-third of all Colorectal cancer-related deaths. Notably, there is an upward trend in early-onset Colorectal cancer mortality associated with these factors.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Discussion<\/jats:title><jats:p>To reduce the burden of Colorectal cancer, it is recommended to enhance health education, promote smoking cessation and alcohol moderation, and increase the coverage and participation in Colorectal cancer screening, which are crucial for lowering Colorectal cancer mortality rates. These findings are vital for the development of public health policies and intervention measures to reduce the global disease burden. They provide guidance for Colorectal cancer prevention across different regions, genders, and age groups worldwide.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.3389\/fonc.2025.1524308","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,26]],"date-time":"2025-02-26T05:12:49Z","timestamp":1740546769000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":12,"title":["Global, Regional, and National Disease Burden and Prediction Analysis of Colorectal Cancer Attributable to Tobacco, Alcohol, and Obesity From 1990 to 2030"],"prefix":"10.3389","volume":"15","author":[{"given":"Yuqi","family":"Deng","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yajie","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jinsai","family":"Yang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Xinyu","family":"Luo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jieya","family":"Qiu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Rou","family":"Long","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Chaohui","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jiale","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Guiyang","family":"Tang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Lili","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jianhong","family":"Zuo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1965","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,26]]},"reference":[{"key":"B1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/cells9030618","article-title":"Immunotherapy, inflammation and colorectal cancer","volume":"9","author":"Lichtenstern","year":"2020","journal-title":"Cells"},{"key":"B2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tranon.2024.101984","article-title":"Global trends and projections of colorectal, esophageal and stomach cancer burden among youth associated with diet: A analysis of 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019 and until 2040","volume":"46","author":"He","year":"2024","journal-title":"Trans Oncol"},{"key":"B3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/JS9.0000000000001071","article-title":"Global, regional, and national burden of inguinal, femoral, and abdominal hernias: a systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, deaths, and DALYs with projections to 2030","volume":"110","author":"Wang","year":"2024","journal-title":"Int J Surg"},{"key":"B4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41575-023-00841-9","article-title":"Changing epidemiology of colorectal cancer \u2014 birth cohort effects and emerging risk factors","volume":"21","author":"Murphy","year":"2024","journal-title":"Nat Rev Gastroenterol Hepatol"},{"key":"B5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3322\/caac.21858","article-title":"Proportion and number of cancer cases and deaths attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors in the United States, 2019","volume":"74","author":"Islami","year":"2024","journal-title":"CA A Cancer J Clin"},{"key":"B6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e239556","DOI":"10.1001\/jamanetworkopen.2023.9556","article-title":"Association of overweight, obesity, and recent weight loss with colorectal cancer risk","volume":"6","author":"Mandic","year":"2023","journal-title":"JAMA Netw Open"},{"key":"B7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"13825","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-024-64813-y","article-title":"Unhealthy lifestyle factors and the risk of colorectal cancer: a Mendelian randomization study","volume":"14","author":"Li","year":"2024","journal-title":"Sci Rep"},{"key":"B8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41575-019-0189-8","article-title":"Global burden of colorectal cancer: emerging trends, risk factors and prevention strategies","volume":"16","author":"Keum","year":"2019","journal-title":"Nat Rev Gastroenterol Hepatol"},{"key":"B9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.canlet.2021.09.034","article-title":"Incidence, mortality, survival, risk factor and screening of colorectal cancer: A comparison among China, Europe, and northern America","volume":"522","author":"Li","year":"2021","journal-title":"Cancer Lett"},{"key":"B10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(24)00933-4","article-title":"Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021","volume":"403","year":"2024","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"B11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s40779-024-00551-6","article-title":"Epidemiological trends of subarachnoid hemorrhage at global, regional, and national level: a trend analysis study from 1990 to 2021","volume":"11","author":"Lv","year":"2024","journal-title":"Mil Med Res"},{"key":"B12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/gutjnl-2022-327736","article-title":"Global burden of colorectal cancer in 2020 and 2040: incidence and mortality estimates from GLOBOCAN","volume":"72","author":"Morgan","year":"2023","journal-title":"Gut"},{"key":"B13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1941","DOI":"10.1097\/CM9.0000000000001619","article-title":"Colorectal cancer incidence and mortality: the current status, temporal trends and their attributable risk factors in 60 countries in 2000\u20132019","volume":"134","author":"Lu","year":"2021","journal-title":"Chin Med J"},{"key":"B14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"216","DOI":"10.1186\/s12939-021-01545-9","article-title":"Measuring health-related social deprivation in small areas: development of an index and examination of its association with cancer mortality","volume":"20","author":"Wang","year":"2021","journal-title":"Int J Equity Health"},{"key":"B15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/20503121211016156","article-title":"Wealth index and other behavioral and sociodemographic characteristics associated with body mass index in Ethiopia","volume":"9","author":"Tesfaw","year":"2021","journal-title":"SAGE Open Med"},{"key":"B16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1212\/WNL.0000000000207218","article-title":"Burden of common neurologic diseases in Asian countries, 1990-2019: an analysis for the global burden of disease study 2019","volume":"100","author":"Wang","year":"2023","journal-title":"Neurology"},{"key":"B17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3322\/caac.21772","article-title":"Colorectal cancer statistics, 2023","volume":"73","author":"Siegel","year":"2023","journal-title":"CA Cancer J Clin"},{"key":"B18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa2208375","article-title":"Effect of colonoscopy screening on risks of colorectal cancer and related death","volume":"387","author":"Bretthauer","year":"2022","journal-title":"N Engl J Med"},{"key":"B19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41591-022-01990-1","article-title":"The Global Burden of Disease Study at 30 years","volume":"28","author":"Murray","year":"2022","journal-title":"Nat Med"},{"key":"B20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1135","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(20)31404-5","article-title":"Five insights from the global burden of disease study 2019","volume":"396","year":"2020","journal-title":"Lancet (London England)"},{"key":"B21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41380-023-02228-3","article-title":"Incidence, prevalence, and global burden of ADHD from 1990 to 2019 across 204 countries: data, with critical re-analysis, from the Global Burden of Disease study","volume":"28","author":"Cortese","year":"2023","journal-title":"Mol Psychiatry"},{"key":"B22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(12)61729-2","article-title":"Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010","volume":"380","author":"Vos","year":"2012","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"B23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/ijc.35084","article-title":"A historical cohort study with 27,754 individuals on the association between meat consumption and gastrointestinal tract and colorectal cancer incidence","volume":"155","author":"Dankner","year":"2024","journal-title":"Intl J Cancer"},{"key":"B24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"88","DOI":"10.14283\/jpad.2023.63","article-title":"Lifestyle and socioeconomic transition and health consequences of Alzheimer\u2019s disease and other dementias in global, from 1990 to 2019","volume":"11","author":"Cui","year":"2024","journal-title":"J Prev Alzheimers Dis"},{"key":"B25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"212","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-023-35886-6","article-title":"Assessing and advancing the safety of CRISPR-Cas tools: from DNA to RNA editing","volume":"14","author":"Tao","year":"2023","journal-title":"Nat Commun"},{"key":"B26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/jcm12051828","article-title":"The global burden of glaucoma: findings from the global burden of disease 2019 study and predictions by Bayesian age\u2013period\u2013cohort analysis","volume":"12","author":"Lin","year":"2023","journal-title":"JCM"},{"key":"B27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e45943","DOI":"10.2196\/45943","article-title":"Global, regional, and national prevalence of gout from 1990 to 2019: age-period-cohort analysis with future burden prediction","volume":"9","author":"He","year":"2023","journal-title":"JMIR Public Health Surveill"},{"key":"B28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41416-022-02070-4","article-title":"A comprehensive systematic review of colorectal cancer screening clinical practices guidelines and consensus statements","volume":"128","author":"Maes-Carballo","year":"2023","journal-title":"Br J Cancer"},{"key":"B29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/apt.16622","article-title":"Systematic review with meta-analysis: the prevalence of post-colonoscopy colorectal cancers using the World Endoscopy Organization nomenclature","volume":"54","author":"Kang","year":"2021","journal-title":"Aliment Pharmacol Ther"},{"key":"B30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fonc.2023.1033154","article-title":"Survival rate of colorectal cancer in China: A systematic review and meta-analysis","volume":"13","author":"Wang","year":"2023","journal-title":"Front Oncol"},{"key":"B31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/jcm11040913","article-title":"Cigarette smoking associated with colorectal cancer survival: A nationwide, population-based cohort study","volume":"11","author":"Huang","year":"2022","journal-title":"J Clin Med"},{"key":"B32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.14309\/ajg.0000000000000803","article-title":"Smoking and colorectal cancer risk, overall and by molecular subtypes: A meta-analysis","volume":"115","author":"Botteri","year":"2020","journal-title":"Am J Gastroenterol"},{"key":"B33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7326\/AITC202404160","article-title":"Screening for colorectal cancer","volume":"177","author":"Patel","year":"2024","journal-title":"Ann Intern Med"},{"key":"B34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"135","DOI":"10.1007\/s10654-022-00954-6","article-title":"Is the association of overweight and obesity with colorectal cancer underestimated? An umbrella review of systematic reviews and meta-analyses","volume":"38","author":"Mandic","year":"2023","journal-title":"Eur J Epidemiol"},{"key":"B35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.9745\/GHSP-D-21-00035","article-title":"Prioritizing health-sector interventions for noncommunicable diseases and injuries in low- and lower-middle income countries: national NCDI poverty commissions","volume":"9","author":"Gupta","year":"2021","journal-title":"Glob Health Sci Pract"},{"key":"B36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.31557\/APJCP.2024.25.8.2773","article-title":"Evolution of colorectal cancer trends and treatment outcomes: A comprehensive retrospective analysis (2019-2023) in West Kazakhstan","volume":"25","author":"Imanbayev","year":"2024","journal-title":"Asian Pac J Cancer Prev"},{"key":"B37","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1313","DOI":"10.1053\/j.gastro.2019.12.029","article-title":"Association between sulfur-metabolizing bacterial communities in stool and risk of distal colorectal cancer in men","volume":"158","author":"Nguyen","year":"2020","journal-title":"Gastroenterology"},{"key":"B38","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fnut.2024.1366553","article-title":"Global disease burden linked to diet high in red meat and colorectal cancer from 1990 to 2019 and its prediction up to 2030","volume":"11","author":"Yang","year":"2024","journal-title":"Front Nutr"},{"key":"B39","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41416-023-02351-6","article-title":"The underestimated impact of excess body weight on colorectal cancer risk: Evidence from the UK Biobank cohort","volume":"129","author":"Safizadeh","year":"2023","journal-title":"Br J Cancer"},{"key":"B40","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00432-023-05395-6","article-title":"Global burden of early-onset colorectal cancer among people aged 40\u201349 years from 1990 to 2019 and predictions to 2030","volume":"149","author":"Tang","year":"2023","journal-title":"J Cancer Res Clin Oncol"},{"key":"B41","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2088","DOI":"10.1186\/s12889-024-19190-6","article-title":"Global, regional, national epidemiology and trends of neglected tropical diseases in youths and young adults aged 15\u201339 years from 1990 to 2019: findings from the global burden of disease study 2019","volume":"24","author":"Lv","year":"2024","journal-title":"BMC Public Health"},{"key":"B42","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/ije\/dyaa273","article-title":"The combined impact of smoking, obesity and alcohol on life-expectancy trends in Europe","volume":"50","author":"Janssen","year":"2021","journal-title":"Int J Epidemiol"},{"key":"B43","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/ije\/dyaa273","article-title":"Strong combined impact of smoking, obesity, and alcohol on survival improvements in Europe","volume":"50","author":"Janssen","year":"2021","journal-title":"Int J Epidemiol."},{"key":"B44","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41571-020-00445-1","article-title":"Rising incidence of early-onset colorectal cancer - a call to action","volume":"18","author":"Akimoto","year":"2021","journal-title":"Nat Rev Clin Oncol"},{"key":"B45","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41575-022-00612-y","article-title":"Current and future colorectal cancer screening strategies","volume":"19","author":"Shaukat","year":"2022","journal-title":"Nat Rev Gastroenterol Hepatol"},{"key":"B46","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.31557\/APJCP.2021.22.S2.71","article-title":"Implementation of MPOWER package in the South-East Asia region: evidence from the WHO report on the global tobacco epidemic (2009-2021)","volume":"22","author":"Kaur","year":"2021","journal-title":"Asian Pac J Cancer Prev"},{"key":"B47","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"78","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ypmed.2018.12.004","article-title":"Progress of colorectal cancer screening in United States: Past achievements and future challenges","volume":"120","author":"Montminy","year":"2019","journal-title":"Prev Med"}],"container-title":["Frontiers in Oncology"],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/articles\/10.3389\/fonc.2025.1524308\/full","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,26]],"date-time":"2025-02-26T05:12:52Z","timestamp":1740546772000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/articles\/10.3389\/fonc.2025.1524308\/full"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,26]]},"references-count":47,"alternative-id":["10.3389\/fonc.2025.1524308"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/fonc.2025.1524308","relation":{},"ISSN":["2234-943X"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2234-943X","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,26]]},"article-number":"1524308"}}