{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,27]],"date-time":"2026-06-27T11:10:35Z","timestamp":1782558635727,"version":"3.54.5"},"reference-count":27,"publisher":"Frontiers Media SA","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,9]],"date-time":"2025-07-09T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1752019200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["frontiersin.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Front. Pediatr."],"abstract":"<jats:sec><jats:title>Objective<\/jats:title><jats:p>This study aimed to develop a nomogram to predict the probability of spontaneous reduction of intussusception (SROI) in pediatric patients.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>Clinical data of children diagnosed with intussusception and admitted to two hospitals in China from May 2023 to December 2024 were retrospectively analyzed. The eligible patients were randomly divided into the training and validation cohorts in a 7:3 ratio. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and multivariable logistic regression analyses were employed to identify essential variables for the development of the nomogram. The nomogram's performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA).<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>A total of 290 cases were included, of whom 114 patients underwent spontaneous reduction. The study identified six predictors of SROI: age, presence of bloody stool (bleed), comorbidities, mode of birth (MOB), intussusception region (right, left, and mid-abdomen), and length. The results demonstrate that older age and short-segment intussusception are significantly associated with an enhanced possibility of SROI. The nomogram demonstrated high discriminatory power with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.922 in the training cohort and 0.932 in the validation cohort. Calibration curves showed good agreement between predicted and observed outcomes. DCA indicated that the nomogram provided substantial net benefits for clinical application.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title><jats:p>The developed nomogram is a reliable and precise tool for predicting the likelihood of SROI in pediatric patients. It can assist clinicians in making treatment decisions, potentially reducing unnecessary invasive interventions and optimizing healthcare resource utilization.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.3389\/fped.2025.1571203","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,10]],"date-time":"2025-07-10T05:44:11Z","timestamp":1752126251000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["Nomogram for spontaneous reduction in pediatric intussusception: a retrospective study"],"prefix":"10.3389","volume":"13","author":[{"given":"Guangyu","family":"Wang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Zhongce","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Guangqi","family":"Duan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Bangzhi","family":"Sui","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Zhiyuan","family":"Jin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Zhenjie","family":"Chu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Rui","family":"Tang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Xiao","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Honglong","family":"Ma","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Shiqin","family":"Qi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jie","family":"Liu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1965","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,9]]},"reference":[{"key":"B1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"473","DOI":"10.1542\/peds.2007-0035","article-title":"Three-year surveillance of intussusception in children in Switzerland","volume":"120","author":"Buettcher","year":"2007","journal-title":"Pediatrics"},{"key":"B2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"587","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jpedsurg.2020.09.055","article-title":"Management of intussusception in children: a systematic review","volume":"56","author":"Kelley-Quon","year":"2021","journal-title":"J Pediatr Surg"},{"key":"B3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"143","DOI":"10.1186\/s12887-023-03961-y","article-title":"Epidemiology, clinical characteristics, and treatment of children with acute intussusception: a case series","volume":"23","author":"Li","year":"2023","journal-title":"BMC Pediatr"},{"key":"B4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1537","DOI":"10.1007\/s00431-019-03455-z","article-title":"Can intussusceptions of small bowel and colon be transient? A prospective study","volume":"178","author":"Wang","year":"2019","journal-title":"Eur J Pediatr"},{"key":"B5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"259","DOI":"10.1016\/S0002-9610(40)90646-8","article-title":"Spontaneous reduction of acute intussusception in children","volume":"49","author":"Goldman","year":"1940","journal-title":"Am J Surg"},{"key":"B6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"58","DOI":"10.1007\/s002470050015","article-title":"Spontaneous reduction of intussusception: clinical spectrum, management and outcome","volume":"30","author":"Kornecki","year":"2000","journal-title":"Pediatr Radiol"},{"key":"B7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e110","DOI":"10.1097\/PEC.0000000000001503","article-title":"Management and outcome of pediatric patients with transient small bowel\u2013small bowel intussusception","volume":"37","author":"Melvin","year":"2021","journal-title":"Pediatr Emerg Care"},{"key":"B8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"191","DOI":"10.1002\/ajum.12352","article-title":"Transient intussusception\u2014what the sonographer needs to know","volume":"26","author":"Necas","year":"2023","journal-title":"Australas J Ultrasound Med"},{"key":"B9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1627","DOI":"10.1097\/JS9.0000000000000993","article-title":"Nomogram for soiling prediction in postsurgery hirschsprung children: a retrospective study","volume":"110","author":"Wang","year":"2024","journal-title":"Int J Surg"},{"key":"B10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"721","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jpedsurg.2020.06.014","article-title":"Accurately distinguishing pediatric ileocolic intussusception from small-bowel intussusception using ultrasonography","volume":"56","author":"Zhang","year":"2021","journal-title":"J Pediatr Surg"},{"key":"B11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e173","DOI":"10.1016\/S1470-2045(14)71116-7","article-title":"Nomograms in oncology: more than meets the eye","volume":"16","author":"Balachandran","year":"2015","journal-title":"Lancet Oncol"},{"key":"B12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"8081","DOI":"10.1007\/s00330-021-07935-5","article-title":"Predictors of failed enema reduction in children with intussusception: a systematic review and meta-analysis","volume":"31","author":"Kim","year":"2021","journal-title":"Eur Radiol"},{"key":"B13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"877358","DOI":"10.3389\/fped.2022.877358","article-title":"Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting pathological intussusceptions in children prior to surgical intervention","volume":"10","author":"Ting","year":"2022","journal-title":"Front Pediatr"},{"key":"B14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"286","DOI":"10.1038\/nrgastro.2012.32","article-title":"The enteric nervous system and neurogastroenterology","volume":"9","author":"Furness","year":"2012","journal-title":"Nat Rev Gastroenterol Hepatol"},{"key":"B15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"594","DOI":"10.1007\/s002470000261","article-title":"The impact of imaging in the management of intussusception owing to pathologic lead points in children","volume":"30","author":"Navarro","year":"2000","journal-title":"Pediatr Radiol"},{"key":"B16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1155\/2009\/579501","article-title":"Ileocecal intussusception with histomorphological features of inflammatory neuropathy in adenovirus infection","volume":"2009","author":"Kaemmerer","year":"2009","journal-title":"Gastroenterol Res Pract"},{"key":"B17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"30","DOI":"10.1055\/s-0036-1593429","article-title":"Intestinal intussusception: etiology, diagnosis, and treatment","volume":"30","author":"Marsicovetere","year":"2016","journal-title":"Clin Colon Rectal Surg"},{"key":"B18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"155","DOI":"10.1136\/gutjnl-2015-309151","article-title":"The role of mast cells in functional GI disorders","volume":"65","author":"Wouters","year":"2016","journal-title":"Gut"},{"key":"B19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"349","DOI":"10.5056\/jnm.2011.17.4.349","article-title":"The immune system in irritable bowel syndrome","volume":"17","author":"Barbara","year":"2011","journal-title":"J Neurogastroenterol Motil"},{"key":"B20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"250","DOI":"10.1038\/nm.4039","article-title":"Partial restoration of the microbiota of cesarean-born infants via vaginal microbial transfer","volume":"22","author":"Dominguez-Bello","year":"2016","journal-title":"Nat Med"},{"key":"B21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1772","DOI":"10.1053\/j.gastro.2010.01.053","article-title":"Short-chain fatty acids regulate the enteric neurons and control gastrointestinal motility in rats","volume":"138","author":"Soret","year":"2010","journal-title":"Gastroenterology"},{"key":"B22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"117","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586-019-1560-1","article-title":"Stunted microbiota and opportunistic pathogen colonization in caesarean-section birth","volume":"574","author":"Shao","year":"2019","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"B23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"313","DOI":"10.2147\/TCRM.S463086","article-title":"Developing a nomogram for predicting surgical intervention in pediatric intussusception after pneumatic reduction: a multicenter study from China","volume":"20","author":"Liu","year":"2024","journal-title":"Ther Clin Risk Manag"},{"key":"B24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"S140","DOI":"10.1007\/s00247-009-1178-9","article-title":"Intussusception in children: evidence-based diagnosis and treatment","volume":"39","author":"Applegate","year":"2009","journal-title":"Pediatr Radiol"},{"key":"B25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1035","DOI":"10.1007\/s00423-011-0742-6","article-title":"Sonographic findings predictive of the need for surgical management in pediatric patients with small bowel intussusceptions","volume":"396","author":"Zhang","year":"2011","journal-title":"Langenbecks Arch Surg"},{"key":"B26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"167","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jss.2018.08.002","article-title":"Radiographic and clinical factors in pediatric patients with surgical small-bowel intussusception","volume":"233","author":"Vandewalle","year":"2019","journal-title":"J Surg Res"},{"key":"B27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"m441","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.m441","article-title":"Calculating the sample size required for developing a clinical prediction model","volume":"368","author":"Riley","year":"2020","journal-title":"Br Med J"}],"container-title":["Frontiers in Pediatrics"],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/articles\/10.3389\/fped.2025.1571203\/full","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,10]],"date-time":"2025-07-10T13:39:04Z","timestamp":1752154744000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/articles\/10.3389\/fped.2025.1571203\/full"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,9]]},"references-count":27,"alternative-id":["10.3389\/fped.2025.1571203"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/fped.2025.1571203","relation":{},"ISSN":["2296-2360"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2296-2360","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,9]]},"article-number":"1571203"}}