{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,23]],"date-time":"2026-09-23T07:01:15Z","timestamp":1790146875840,"version":"4.0.1"},"reference-count":46,"publisher":"Frontiers Media SA","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,23]],"date-time":"2026-09-23T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1790121600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["frontiersin.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Front. Plant Sci."],"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Introduction<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Climate change is expected to affect crop production and grain quality by altering the environmental conditions that define crop climatic niches. However, the spatial distribution and future dynamics of climatic suitability for test-weight-defined high-quality wheat in China remain insufficiently understood. This study aimed to characterize the climatic suitability of high-test-weight (High-TW) wheat and assess its potential changes under future climate scenarios.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      High-TW wheat was defined as wheat with a test weight (TW) \u2265 750 g L\n                      <jats:sup>-1<\/jats:sup>\n                      . Long-term wheat quality monitoring records, WorldClim bioclimatic variables, BCC-CSM2-MR-based future climate projections, and an optimized MaxEnt model were used to characterize the baseline suitability pattern, identify dominant climatic predictors, and project changes under four future climate scenarios.\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The model showed strong discrimination under random holdout evaluation, with a mean test AUC of 0.936 and a continuous Boyce index of 0.9702. The minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6) was the dominant predictor, contributing 55.3% to the model, indicating the importance of winter thermal conditions in the climatic niche associated with High-TW wheat. Under the 1970\u20132000 baseline climate, high-suitability areas were mainly concentrated in the north-central Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, broadly corresponding to traditional production regions of strong- and medium-strong-gluten wheat. Under the BCC-CSM2-MR projections, the broad spatial pattern remained relatively stable, while changes occurred mainly in the composition and peripheral distribution of suitability classes. By 2081\u20132100, high-suitability area increased under all four scenarios, with the largest relative increase under SSP126 (+12.35%). Centroid shifts were modest and scenario-dependent rather than proportional to emission intensity, with the largest late-century displacement reaching approximately 48 km under SSP370.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Discussion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Future climate change may primarily reorganize the internal structure of climatic suitability while maintaining the broad national-scale pattern of High-TW wheat suitability. These findings provide a national-scale climatic-suitability perspective for High-TW wheat zoning, regional adaptation, and future production-planning assessments in China.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.3389\/fpls.2026.1834560","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,23]],"date-time":"2026-09-23T06:16:12Z","timestamp":1790144172000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Climatic suitability and future dynamics of test-weight-defined high-quality wheat in China under climate change"],"prefix":"10.3389","volume":"17","author":[{"given":"Yuncheng","family":"Zhao","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Henan Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Support and Applied Technique","place":["Henan, China"]},{"name":"National Meteorological Center","place":["Beijing, China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Lei","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Meteorological Center","place":["Beijing, China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Qing","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Haidian District Meteorological Bureau","place":["Beijing, China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Cong","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Agricultural Economics and Technology, Hubei Academy of Agricultural Science","place":["Wuhan, China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1965","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,23]]},"reference":[{"key":"B1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"541","DOI":"10.1111\/ecog.01132","article-title":"SpThin: An R package for spatial thinning of species occurrence records for use in ecological niche models","volume":"38","author":"Aiello-Lammens","year":"2015","journal-title":"Ecography"},{"key":"B2","first-page":"1156","volume-title":"Modeling current and future potential land distribution dynamics of wheat, rice, and maize under climate change scenarios using MaxEnt. Land","author":"Ali","year":"2024"},{"key":"B3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"143","DOI":"10.1038\/nclimate2470","article-title":"Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production","volume":"5","author":"Asseng","year":"2015","journal-title":"Nat. Clim. Change"},{"key":"B4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1052","DOI":"10.3390\/plants10061052","article-title":"Climate change, crop yields, and grain quality of c3 cereals: A meta-analysis of [CO2], temperature, and drought effects","volume":"10","author":"Ben Mariem","year":"2021","journal-title":"Plants"},{"key":"B5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1344","DOI":"10.1111\/jbi.12894","article-title":"A quantitative synthesis of the importance of variables used in MaxEnt species distribution models","volume":"44","author":"Bradie","year":"2017","journal-title":"J. Biogeogr."},{"key":"B6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.compag.2024.109474","article-title":"Quantitative assessment of the effects of rising temperature on the grain protein of winter wheat in China and its adaptive strategies","volume":"226","author":"Cao","year":"2024","journal-title":"Comput. Electron. Agric."},{"key":"B7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"27","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1600-0587.2012.07348.x","article-title":"Collinearity: A review of methods to deal with it and a simulation study evaluating their performance","volume":"36","author":"Carsten","year":"2013","journal-title":"Ecography"},{"key":"B8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3142","DOI":"10.3864\/j.issn.0578-1752.2024.16.004","article-title":"Agricultural climatic factors and their thresholds for winter wheat cultivation in northern China","volume":"57","author":"Chen","year":"2024","journal-title":"Scientia Agricultura Sin."},{"key":"B9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7717\/peerj.6281","article-title":"Kuenm: An R package for detailed development of ecological niche models using Maxent","volume":"7","author":"Cobos","year":"2019","journal-title":"PeerJ"},{"key":"B10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"19651","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0901650106","article-title":"Hutchinson's duality: The once and future niche","volume":"106","author":"Colwell","year":"2009","journal-title":"Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci."},{"key":"B11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"133","DOI":"10.1016\/S0733-5210(03)00030-4","article-title":"Molecular and biochemical impacts of environmental factors on wheat grain development and protein synthesis","volume":"38","author":"Dupont","year":"2003","journal-title":"J. Cereal Sci."},{"key":"B12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"4302","DOI":"10.1002\/joc.5086","article-title":"WorldClim 2: New 1-km spatial resolution climate surfaces for global land areas","volume":"37","author":"Fick","year":"2017","journal-title":"Int. J. Climatol."},{"key":"B13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7717\/peerj.16459","article-title":"Future habitat changes of Bactrocera minax Enderlein along the Yangtze River Basin using the optimal MaxEnt model","volume":"11","author":"Fu","year":"2023","journal-title":"PeerJ"},{"key":"B14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.54085\/ap.2023.12.1.87","article-title":"Evaluation of physiological, enzymatic, biochemical, nutritional parameters and stress tests in wheat genotypes","volume":"856","author":"Gare","year":"2023","journal-title":"Ann. Phytomedicine An. Int. J."},{"key":"B15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fpls.2024.1410388","article-title":"Global wheat planting suitability under the 1.5\u00b0C and 2\u00b0C warming targets","volume":"15","author":"Guo","year":"2024","journal-title":"Front. Plant Sci."},{"key":"B16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"29","DOI":"10.1148\/radiology.143.1.7063747","article-title":"The meaning under a receiver characteristic and use of the area operating (ROC) curve","volume":"143","author":"Hanley","year":"1982","journal-title":"Radiology"},{"key":"B17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"109","DOI":"10.1038\/s41597-020-0453-3","article-title":"Version 4 of the CRU TS monthly high-resolution gridded multivariate climate dataset","volume":"7","author":"Harris","year":"2020","journal-title":"Sci. Data"},{"key":"B18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"331","DOI":"10.1038\/s43016-025-01135-w","article-title":"Climate change threatens crop diversity at low latitudes","volume":"6","author":"Heikonen","year":"2025","journal-title":"Nat. Food"},{"key":"B19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"873","DOI":"10.1016\/S0168-9452(03)00076-1","article-title":"Effect of temperature on expression of genes encoding enzymes for starch biosynthesis in developing wheat endosperm","volume":"164","author":"Hurkman","year":"2003","journal-title":"Plant Sci."},{"key":"B20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jnc.2017.10.011","article-title":"Reynoutria niche modelling and protected area prioritization for restoration and protection from invasion: A Southeastern Europe case study","volume":"41","author":"Jovanovi\u0107","year":"2018","journal-title":"J. Nat. Conserv."},{"key":"B21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"118","DOI":"10.11975\/j.issn.1002-6819.202210081","article-title":"Effects of climate change on the protein content of wheat grains in China using meta-analysis","volume":"11","author":"Kong","year":"2023","journal-title":"Trans. Chin. Soc. Agric. Eng. (Transactions CSAE)"},{"key":"B22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"494","DOI":"10.1080\/20964471.2024.2363552","article-title":"Long-term, (2013-2022) mapping of winter wheat in the North China Plain using Landsat data: Classification with optimal zoning strategy","volume":"8","author":"Liu","year":"2024","journal-title":"Big Earth Data"},{"key":"B23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"145","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1466-8238.2007.00358.x","article-title":"AUC: A misleading measure of the performance of predictive distribution models","volume":"17","author":"Lobo","year":"2008","journal-title":"Global Ecol. Biogeogr."},{"key":"B24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.fcr.2023.109112","article-title":"Planting suitability of China\u2019s main grain crops under future climate change","volume":"302","author":"Lv","year":"2023","journal-title":"Field Crops Res."},{"key":"B25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fpls.2021.638525","article-title":"Current situation and key parameters for improving wheat quality in China","volume":"12","author":"Ma","year":"2021","journal-title":"Front. Plant Sci."},{"key":"B26","volume-title":"China Statistical Yearbook 2024","year":"2024"},{"key":"B27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"231","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2005.03.026","article-title":"Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions","volume":"190","author":"Phillips","year":"2006","journal-title":"Ecol. Modell."},{"key":"B28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"181","DOI":"10.1890\/07-2153.1","article-title":"Sample selection bias and presence-only distribution models: Implications for background and pseudo-absence data","volume":"19","author":"Phillips","year":"2009","journal-title":"Ecol. Appl."},{"key":"B29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2021","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2005.1752","article-title":"Crop responses to climatic variation","volume":"360","author":"Porter","year":"2005","journal-title":"Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B. Biol. Sci."},{"key":"B30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1285","DOI":"10.1126\/science.3287615","article-title":"Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems","volume":"240","author":"Swets","year":"1988","journal-title":"Sci. (American Assoc. For. Advancement Science)"},{"key":"B31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"706","DOI":"10.3390\/plants13050706","article-title":"Analysis of the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of climate and its impact on winter wheat production in Shanxi Province, China 1964-2018","volume":"13","author":"Wang","year":"2024","journal-title":"Plants"},{"key":"B32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"335","DOI":"10.1890\/10-1171.1","article-title":"Ecological niche modeling in Maxent: The importance of model complexity and the performance of model selection criteria","volume":"21","author":"Warren","year":"2011","journal-title":"Ecol. Appl."},{"key":"B33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"95","DOI":"10.1071\/AR07185","article-title":"The influences of genotype, environment, and genotype \u00d7 environment interaction on wheat quality","volume":"59","author":"Williams","year":"2008","journal-title":"Aust. J. Agric. Res."},{"key":"B34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1573","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd-12-1573-2019","article-title":"The Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC-CSM): The main progress from CMIP5 to CMIP6","volume":"12","author":"Wu","year":"2019","journal-title":"Geosci. Model. Dev."},{"key":"B35","first-page":"14204","article-title":"Responses of wheat protein content and protein yield to future climate change in China during 2041\u20132060","volume-title":"Sustainability","author":"Xie","year":"2023"},{"key":"B36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1025","DOI":"10.1038\/s41597-024-03866-0","article-title":"The 500-meter long-term winter wheat grain protein content dataset for China from multi-source data","volume":"11","author":"Xu","year":"2024","journal-title":"Sci. Data"},{"key":"B37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2745","DOI":"10.1002\/jsfa.12289","article-title":"Impact of climate change on wheat grain composition and quality","volume":"103","author":"Zahra","year":"2023","journal-title":"J. Sci. Food Agric."},{"key":"B38","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2023.166147","article-title":"Future climate change impacts on wheat grain yield and protein in the North China Region","volume":"902","author":"Zhang","year":"2023","journal-title":"Sci. Total Environ."},{"key":"B39","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fpls.2023.1083665","article-title":"Detection of meteorological influence on bread wheat quality in Hebei province, China based on the gradient boosting decision tree","volume":"14","author":"Zhang","year":"2023","journal-title":"Front. Plant Sci."},{"key":"B40","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"9326","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1701762114","article-title":"Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates","volume":"114","author":"Zhao","year":"2017","journal-title":"Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci."},{"key":"B41","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"886","DOI":"10.7606\/j.issn.1009-1041.2010.05.019","article-title":"Study on chinese wheat planting regionalization(i)","volume":"5","author":"Zhao","year":"2010","journal-title":"J. Triticese Crops"},{"key":"B42","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"21245","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-024-71228-2","article-title":"Predicting possible distribution of rice leaf roller (Cnaphalocrocis medinalis) under climate change scenarios using MaxEnt model in China","volume":"14","author":"Zhao","year":"2024","journal-title":"Sci. Rep."},{"key":"B43","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/cli2.70","article-title":"The effects of adaptation on the phenological changes of winter wheat in the warmer North China Plain","volume":"4","author":"Zhao","year":"2025","journal-title":"Clim. Resilience Sustainability"},{"key":"B44","first-page":"449","article-title":"Assessing the impact of climate change on winter wheat production in the north China plain from 1980 to 2020","volume-title":"Agriculture","author":"Zheng","year":"2025"},{"key":"B45","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.agrformet.2025.110567","article-title":"Exploring the climate signal in the variation of winter wheat quality records in the North China Plain","volume":"369","author":"Zhou","year":"2025","journal-title":"Agric. For. Meteorol."},{"key":"B46","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"8","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jprot.2018.06.019","article-title":"Lysine acetylproteome profiling under water deficit reveals key acetylated proteins involved in wheat grain development and starch biosynthesis","volume":"185","author":"Zhu","year":"2018","journal-title":"J. Proteomics"}],"container-title":["Frontiers in Plant Science"],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/articles\/10.3389\/fpls.2026.1834560\/full","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,23]],"date-time":"2026-09-23T06:16:16Z","timestamp":1790144176000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/articles\/10.3389\/fpls.2026.1834560\/full"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,23]]},"references-count":46,"alternative-id":["10.3389\/fpls.2026.1834560"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/fpls.2026.1834560","relation":{},"ISSN":["1664-462X"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1664-462X","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,23]]},"article-number":"1834560"}}