{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,29]],"date-time":"2026-05-29T05:05:20Z","timestamp":1780031120972,"version":"3.53.1"},"reference-count":25,"publisher":"Frontiers Media SA","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,29]],"date-time":"2026-05-29T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1780012800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["frontiersin.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Front. Plant Sci."],"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Introduction<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Rice production is highly dependent on water availability and is increasingly exposed to climate-driven changes in evapotranspiration, precipitation patterns, and irrigation demand.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>This study evaluated future rice water footprint and water productivity responses using DSSAT-CERES-Rice outputs previously calibrated and validated for Mediterranean conditions in T\u00fcrkiye. The validation-year full-irrigation reference was used to represent future irrigated conditions in the present water footprint assessment. Simulations were evaluated using three GCMs, HadGEM2-ES, GFDL-ESM2M, and MPI-ESM-MR, two emission scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, and three projection periods: 2016\u20132040, 2041\u20132070, and 2071\u20132098.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>For irrigated conditions, mean green + blue water footprint was highest in 2016\u20132040, reaching 1250 m\u00b3 t\u207b\u00b9 for RCP 4.5 and 1056 m\u00b3 t\u207b\u00b9 for RCP 8.5, but remained lower in the late-future period, reaching 674 and 668 m\u00b3 t\u207b\u00b9, respectively, by 2071\u20132098. For rainfed conditions, mean green water footprint was considerably higher in the near-future period, reaching 6401 m\u00b3 t\u207b\u00b9 for RCP 4.5 and 4610 m\u00b3 t\u207b\u00b9 for RCP 8.5, mainly because limited growing-season rainfall and increased water stress reduced simulated yields under non-irrigated conditions. These values remained below the near-future levels in the late-future period, reaching 1869 and 2608 m\u00b3 t\u207b\u00b9, respectively, in 2071\u20132098. Irrigation water productivity ranged from 0.88 to 9.37 kg m\u207b\u00b3, indicating strong sensitivity to irrigation water use and yield response, particularly in scenarios with low simulated irrigation requirements.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Discussion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Overall, future rice water footprint was controlled not only by evapotranspiration, but also by yield response, irrigation regime, and GCM-specific climate responses. The study demonstrates that validated DSSAT outputs can be used not only for future yield projection, but also for water footprint assessment, providing a useful framework for future rice water management under climate change.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.3389\/fpls.2026.1872210","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,29]],"date-time":"2026-05-29T04:52:49Z","timestamp":1780030369000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Water footprint and water productivity dynamics of Mediterranean rice under climate change and water regime scenarios"],"prefix":"10.3389","volume":"17","author":[{"given":"Alper","family":"Baydar","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biosystems Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Siirt University","place":["Siirt, T\u00fcrkiye"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ye\u015fim","family":"Bozkurt \u00c7olak","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biosystems Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Malatya Turgut \u00d6zal University","place":["Malatya, T\u00fcrkiye"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Burak","family":"Dalk\u0131l\u0131\u00e7","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biosystems Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Malatya Turgut \u00d6zal University","place":["Malatya, T\u00fcrkiye"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yusuf","family":"\u00c7elik","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Plant and Animal Production, Silifke Vocational School, Mersin University","place":["Silifke, T\u00fcrkiye"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1965","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,29]]},"reference":[{"key":"B1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2020.137864","article-title":"Assessment of climate change impact on rice yield and water footprint of large-scale and individual farming in Thailand","volume":"726","author":"Arunrat","year":"2020","journal-title":"Sci. Total Environ."},{"key":"B2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7717\/peerj.20965","article-title":"Assessing rice yield responses to climate change scenarios using a crop simulation model","volume":"14","author":"Baydar","year":"2026","journal-title":"PeerJ"},{"key":"B3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"544","DOI":"10.1007\/s10661-023-11117-9","article-title":"Yield, water, and carbon footprint of rainfed rice production under the lens of mid-century climate change: a case study in the eastern coastal agro-climatic zone, Odisha, India","volume":"195","author":"Behera","year":"2023","journal-title":"Environ. Monit. Assess."},{"key":"B4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"223","DOI":"10.1016\/j.agsy.2015.07.009","article-title":"Impact of potential climate change on crop yield and water footprint of rice in the Po valley of Italy","volume":"139","author":"Bocchiola","year":"2015","journal-title":"Agric. Syst."},{"key":"B5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"749","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolecon.2010.11.012","article-title":"The blue, green and grey water footprint of rice from production and consumption perspectives","volume":"70","author":"Chapagain","year":"2011","journal-title":"Ecol. Econ."},{"key":"B6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"4877","DOI":"10.5194\/hess-19-4877-2015","article-title":"Green and blue water footprint reduction in irrigated agriculture: effect of irrigation techniques, irrigation strategies and mulching","volume":"19","author":"Chukalla","year":"2015","journal-title":"Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci."},{"key":"B7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2021.150991","article-title":"Future climate change could reduce irrigated and rainfed wheat water footprint in arid environments","volume":"807","author":"Deihimfard","year":"2022","journal-title":"Sci. Total Environ."},{"key":"B8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"22","DOI":"10.31807\/tjwsm.297183","article-title":"Climate change projections for Turkey: three models and two scenarios","volume":"1","author":"Demircan","year":"2017","journal-title":"Turkish J. Water Sci. Manage."},{"key":"B9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"955","DOI":"10.1007\/s00271-025-01019-8","article-title":"Projecting rice water footprint for different shared socioeconomic pathways under arid climate conditions","volume":"43","author":"Elsadek","year":"2025","journal-title":"Irrig. Sci."},{"key":"B10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"675","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1937.10503522","article-title":"The use of ranks to avoid the assumption of normality implicit in the analysis of variance","volume":"32","author":"Friedman","year":"1937","journal-title":"J. Am. Stat. Assoc."},{"key":"B11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0329509","article-title":"Study of the rice yield variations under water saving scenarios using DSSAT crop model","volume":"20","author":"Hsieh","year":"2025","journal-title":"PloS One"},{"key":"B12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"235","DOI":"10.1016\/S1161-0301(02)00107-7","article-title":"The DSSAT cropping system model","volume":"18","author":"Jones","year":"2003","journal-title":"Eur. J. Agron."},{"key":"B13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/srep37971","article-title":"Irrigation water productivity is more influenced by agronomic practice factors than by climatic factors in Hexi Corridor, Northwest China","volume":"6","author":"Li","year":"2016","journal-title":"Sci. Rep."},{"key":"B14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolind.2025.113739","article-title":"Assessing climate change impacts on water footprint of crop production and crop yield: a case study of the Wu River basin, Taiwan","volume":"177","author":"Lin","year":"2025","journal-title":"Ecol. Indic."},{"key":"B15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1577","DOI":"10.5194\/hess-15-1577-2011","article-title":"The green, blue and grey water footprint of crops and derived crop products","volume":"15","author":"Mekonnen","year":"2011","journal-title":"Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci."},{"key":"B16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"206","DOI":"10.1038\/s41597-024-03051-3","article-title":"Water footprints and crop water use of 175 individual crops for 1990\u20132019 simulated with a global crop model","volume":"11","author":"Mialyk","year":"2024","journal-title":"Sci. Data"},{"key":"B17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"47","DOI":"10.1016\/j.agwat.2017.09.014","article-title":"How water amounts and management options drive irrigation water productivity of rice. A multivariate analysis based on field experiment data","volume":"195","author":"Monaco","year":"2018","journal-title":"Agric. Water Manage."},{"key":"B18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"161","DOI":"10.1007\/s13201-020-01249-5","article-title":"Simulating water productivity of paddy rice under irrigation regimes using AquaCrop model in humid and semiarid regions of Iran","volume":"10","author":"Pirmoradian","year":"2020","journal-title":"Appl. Water Sci."},{"key":"B19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"689","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2017.05.028","article-title":"Quantifying the impact of climate change on crop yield and water footprint of rice in the Nam Oon Irrigation Project, Thailand","author":"Shrestha","year":"2017","journal-title":"Sci. Total Environ."},{"key":"B20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"80","DOI":"10.2307\/3001968","article-title":"Individual comparisons by ranking methods","volume":"1","author":"Wilcoxon","year":"1945","journal-title":"Biometrics Bull."},{"key":"B21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/su10020242","article-title":"Assessment of potential climate change effects on the rice yield and water footprint in the Nanliujiang Catchment, China","volume":"10","author":"Yang","year":"2018","journal-title":"Sustainability"},{"key":"B22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"4637","DOI":"10.5194\/hess-26-4637-2022","article-title":"Spatiotemporal responses of the crop water footprint and its associated benchmarks under different irrigation regimes to climate change scenarios in China","volume":"26","author":"Yue","year":"2022","journal-title":"Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci."},{"key":"B23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.agwat.2024.108815","article-title":"Yield response and water productivity of soybean (Glycine max L.) to deficit irrigation and sowing time in south-eastern Australia","volume":"296","author":"Zeleke","year":"2024","journal-title":"Agric. Water Manage."},{"key":"B24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2019.136190","article-title":"Assessment of climate change impact on the water footprint in rice production: historical simulation and future projections at two representative rice cropping sites of China","volume":"709","author":"Zheng","year":"2020","journal-title":"Sci. Total Environ."},{"key":"B25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fpls.2022.895402","article-title":"Shifting rice cropping systems mitigates ecological footprints and enhances grain yield in Central China","volume":"13","author":"Zhou","year":"2022","journal-title":"Front. Plant Sci."}],"container-title":["Frontiers in Plant Science"],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/articles\/10.3389\/fpls.2026.1872210\/full","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,29]],"date-time":"2026-05-29T04:52:53Z","timestamp":1780030373000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/articles\/10.3389\/fpls.2026.1872210\/full"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,29]]},"references-count":25,"alternative-id":["10.3389\/fpls.2026.1872210"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/fpls.2026.1872210","relation":{},"ISSN":["1664-462X"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1664-462X","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,29]]},"article-number":"1872210"}}