{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,9]],"date-time":"2026-09-09T11:08:53Z","timestamp":1788952133399,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":54,"publisher":"Frontiers Media SA","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,9]],"date-time":"2026-09-09T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1788912000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["frontiersin.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Front. Plant Sci."],"abstract":"<jats:p>\n                    Foxtail Millet (\n                    <jats:italic>Setaria italica<\/jats:italic>\n                    ) is one of China\u2019s earliest domesticated cereal crops and remains important for dryland farming, germplasm conservation, and climate-resilient agriculture. However, climate warming and altered precipitation regimes may reshape its agroclimatic suitability and challenge traditional production regions. Here, we integrated 1, 948 cleaned occurrence records with climatic, topographic, soil, and UV-B radiation variables, and used the biomod2 ensemble species distribution modelling framework to predict the potential suitable distribution of\n                    <jats:italic>S. italica<\/jats:italic>\n                    across China. Projections were conducted under the historical baseline and CMIP6 BCC-CSM2-MR future climate scenarios for SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 across the 2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s. The selected EMwmeanByTSS ensemble showed good discrimination ability and acceptable predictive performance, with validation ROC and TSS values of 0.863 \u00b1 0.011 and 0.581 \u00b1 0.022, respectively. Annual precipitation (bio12, 29.61%), elevation (elev, 28.07%), minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio06, 14.23%), and UV-B seasonality (uvb2, 10.93%) were the dominant predictors, jointly contributing 82.82%. Under the historical baseline, the total potential suitable area was 4.09 \u00d7 10\n                    <jats:sup>6<\/jats:sup>\n                    km\u00b2 (44.22% of China\u2019s land area), with highly suitable areas concentrated in the North China Plain, eastern Loess Plateau, and southern margin of Northeast China. Under future SSP scenarios, the total suitable area increased to 4.29 \u00d7 10\n                    <jats:sup>6<\/jats:sup>\n                    \u2013 4.87 \u00d7 10\n                    <jats:sup>6<\/jats:sup>\n                    km\u00b2, representing a 4.77%\u201318.87% increase. Expansion was mainly projected along the northern and peripheral margins of the current suitable region, while contraction occurred along southern, southwestern, and transitional margins. The suitability centroid shifted slightly northward to northwestward from northern Henan toward southern\u2013central Shanxi, with net displacement of 113.33\u2013232.79 km by the 2090s. Overall, future suitability is projected to show a pattern of stable core areas, marginal expansion, localized contraction, and limited centroid migration. These findings provide a spatial basis for stable production-region protection, regional variety trials, germplasm conservation, and climate-adaptive dryland agricultural planning.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3389\/fpls.2026.1882902","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,9]],"date-time":"2026-09-09T10:12:09Z","timestamp":1788948729000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Climate-driven redistribution of foxtail millet (Setaria italica) suitability in China revealed by biomod2 ensemble models: implications for dryland crop adaptation"],"prefix":"10.3389","volume":"17","author":[{"given":"Lina","family":"Chang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Ecological Restoration in Northern Shaanxi Mining Area, China College of Advanced Agricultural Sciences, Yulin University","place":["Yulin, China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jiakun","family":"Yan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Ecological Restoration in Northern Shaanxi Mining Area, China College of Advanced Agricultural Sciences, Yulin University","place":["Yulin, China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Xiaolin","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Ecological Restoration in Northern Shaanxi Mining Area, China College of Advanced Agricultural Sciences, Yulin University","place":["Yulin, China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Xiong","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Ecological Restoration in Northern Shaanxi Mining Area, China College of Advanced Agricultural Sciences, Yulin University","place":["Yulin, China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yuming","family":"Chang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"First Clinical Medical College, College of Information and Engineering, Wenzhou Medical University","place":["Wenzhou, China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ke","family":"Lu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Ecological Restoration in Northern Shaanxi Mining Area, China College of Advanced Agricultural Sciences, Yulin University","place":["Yulin, China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1965","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,9]]},"reference":[{"key":"B1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1223","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2664.2006.01214.x","article-title":"Assessing the accuracy of species distribution models: prevalence, kappa and the true skill statistic (TSS)","volume":"43","author":"Allouche","year":"2006","journal-title":"J. Appl. Ecol."},{"key":"B2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"869","DOI":"10.1007\/s13593-015-0285-2","article-title":"Agroecology and the design of climate change-resilient farming systems","volume":"35","author":"Altieri","year":"2015","journal-title":"Agron. Sustain. Dev."},{"key":"B3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"42","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tree.2006.09.010","article-title":"Ensemble forecasting of species distributions","volume":"22","author":"Araujo","year":"2007","journal-title":"Trends Ecol. Evol."},{"key":"B4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"226","DOI":"10.1039\/c0pp90035d","article-title":"Effects of solar ultraviolet radiation on terrestrial ecosystems. Patterns, mechanisms, and interactions with climate change","volume":"10","author":"Ballar\u00e9","year":"2011","journal-title":"Photochem. Photobiol. Sci."},{"key":"B5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"555","DOI":"10.1038\/nbt.2196","article-title":"Reference genome sequence of the model plant setaria","volume":"30","author":"Bennetzen","year":"2012","journal-title":"Nat. Biotechnol."},{"key":"B6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1111\/ddi.12144","article-title":"BIOCLIM: the first species distribution modelling package, its early applications and relevance to most current MAXENT studies","volume":"20","author":"Booth","year":"2014","journal-title":"Divers. Distrib."},{"key":"B7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"287","DOI":"10.1038\/nclimate2153","article-title":"A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation","volume":"4","author":"Challinor","year":"2014","journal-title":"Nat. Clim. Change"},{"key":"B8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0077080","article-title":"Engagement with HIV prevention treatment and care among female sex workers in Zimbabwe: a respondent driven sampling survey","volume":"8","author":"Cowan","year":"2013","journal-title":"PloS One"},{"key":"B9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"7271","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0903375106","article-title":"Agricultural origins in north China pushed back to the pleistocene\u2013holocene boundary","volume":"106","author":"Crawford","year":"2009","journal-title":"Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci."},{"key":"B10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"27","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1600-0587.2012.07348.x","article-title":"Collinearity: a review of methods to deal with it and a simulation study evaluating their performance","volume":"36","author":"Dormann","year":"2013","journal-title":"Ecography"},{"key":"B11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"129","DOI":"10.1111\/j.2006.0906-7590.04596.x","article-title":"Novel methods improve prediction of species\u2019 distributions from occurrence data","volume":"29","author":"Elith","year":"2006","journal-title":"Ecography"},{"key":"B12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"677","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.ecolsys.110308.120159","article-title":"Species distribution models: ecological explanation and prediction across space and time","volume":"40","author":"Elith","year":"2009","journal-title":"Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst."},{"key":"B13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1937","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd-9-1937-2016","article-title":"Overview of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization","volume":"9","author":"Eyring","year":"2016","journal-title":"Geosci. Model. Dev."},{"key":"B14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"4302","DOI":"10.1002\/joc.5086","article-title":"WorldClim 2: new 1-km spatial resolution climate surfaces for global land areas","volume":"37","author":"Fick","year":"2017","journal-title":"Int. J. Climatol."},{"key":"B15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"38","DOI":"10.1017\/S0376892997000088","article-title":"A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence\/absence models","volume":"24","author":"Fielding","year":"1997","journal-title":"Envir. Conserv."},{"key":"B16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"276","DOI":"10.1111\/geb.12268","article-title":"Is my species distribution model fit for purpose? Matching data and models to applications","volume":"24","author":"Guillera-Arroita","year":"2015","journal-title":"Global Ecol. Biogeogr."},{"key":"B17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"147","DOI":"10.1016\/S0304-3800(00)00354-9","article-title":"Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology","volume":"135","author":"Guisan","year":"2000","journal-title":"Ecol. Modell."},{"key":"B18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2272","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2486.2006.01256.x","article-title":"The ability of climate envelope models to predict the effect of climate change on species distributions","volume":"12","author":"Hijmans","year":"2006","journal-title":"Global Change Biol."},{"key":"B19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fpls.2023.1147756","article-title":"How ambient temperature affects the heading date of foxtail millet (setaria italica)","volume":"14","author":"Huang","year":"2023","journal-title":"Front. Plant Sci."},{"key":"B20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"5","DOI":"10.1007\/s00334-008-0187-1","article-title":"Millets across eurasia: chronology and context of early records of the genera panicum and setaria from archaeological sites in the old world","volume":"17","author":"Hunt","year":"2008","journal-title":"Veg. Hist. Archaeobot."},{"key":"B21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"873","DOI":"10.1038\/s43016-021-00400-y","article-title":"Climate impacts on global agriculture emerge earlier in new generation of climate and crop models","volume":"2","author":"J\u00e4germeyr","year":"2021","journal-title":"Nat. Food"},{"key":"B22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"131","DOI":"10.1016\/S1360-1385(98)01215-1","article-title":"Higher plants and UV-B radiation: balancing damage, repair and acclimation","volume":"3","author":"Jansen","year":"1998","journal-title":"Trends Plant Sci."},{"key":"B23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"407","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.arplant.59.032607.092953","article-title":"Signal transduction in responses to UV-B radiation","volume":"60","author":"Jenkins","year":"2009","journal-title":"Annu. Rev. Plant Biol."},{"key":"B24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"957","DOI":"10.1038\/ng.2673","article-title":"A haplotype map of genomic variations and genome-wide association studies of agronomic traits in foxtail millet (setaria italica)","volume":"45","author":"Jia","year":"2013","journal-title":"Nat. Genet."},{"key":"B25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1052","DOI":"10.3724\/SP.J.1006.2020.94144","article-title":"Photo-thermal interaction model under different photoperiod-temperature conditions and expression analysis of SiCCT gene in foxtail millet (setaria italica L.)","volume":"46","author":"Jia","year":"2020","journal-title":"Acta Agron. Sin."},{"key":"B26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"328","DOI":"10.3109\/07388551.2012.716809","article-title":"Foxtail millet: a model crop for genetic and genomic studies in bioenergy grasses","volume":"33","author":"Lata","year":"2013","journal-title":"Crit. Rev. Biotechnol."},{"key":"B27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3031","DOI":"10.1093\/jxb\/err096","article-title":"Setaria viridis and setaria italica, model genetic systems for the panicoid grasses","volume":"62","author":"Li","year":"2011","journal-title":"J. Exp. Bot."},{"key":"B28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"778","DOI":"10.1111\/jbi.12058","article-title":"Selecting thresholds for the prediction of species occurrence with presence-only data","volume":"40","author":"Liu","year":"2013","journal-title":"J. Biogeogr."},{"key":"B29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.agrformet.2020.108131","article-title":"A case study of climate-smart management in foxtail millet (setaria italica) production under future climate change in lishu county of jilin, China","author":"Liu","year":"2020","journal-title":"Agric. For. Meteorol."},{"key":"B30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"616","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1204531","article-title":"Climate trends and global crop production since 1980","volume":"333","author":"Lobell","year":"2011","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"B31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"7367","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0900158106","article-title":"Earliest domestication of common millet (panicum miliaceum) in east Asia extended to 10,000 years ago","volume":"106","author":"Lu","year":"2009","journal-title":"Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci."},{"key":"B32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"59","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1472-4642.2008.00491.x","article-title":"Evaluation of consensus methods in predictive species distribution modelling","volume":"15","author":"Marmion","year":"2009","journal-title":"Divers. Distrib."},{"key":"B33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1058","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1600-0587.2013.07872.x","article-title":"A practical guide to MaxEnt for modeling species\u2019 distributions: what it does, and why inputs and settings matter","volume":"36","author":"Merow","year":"2013","journal-title":"Ecography"},{"key":"B34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1198","DOI":"10.1111\/2041-210X.12261","article-title":"ENMeval: An R package for conducting spatially independent evaluations and estimating optimal model complexity for MAXENT ecological niche models","volume":"5","author":"Muscarella","year":"2014","journal-title":"Methods Ecol. Evol."},{"key":"B35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3461","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd-9-3461-2016","article-title":"The scenario model intercomparison project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6","volume":"9","author":"O\u2019Neill","year":"2016","journal-title":"Geosci. Model. Dev."},{"key":"B36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"195","DOI":"10.15302\/J-FASE-2015063","article-title":"Progress in NMR-based metabolomics of catharanthus roseus","volume":"2","author":"Pan","year":"2015","journal-title":"Front. Agric. Sci. Eng."},{"key":"B37","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"887","DOI":"10.1111\/ecog.03049","article-title":"Opening the black box: an open-source release of maxent","volume":"40","author":"Phillips","year":"2017","journal-title":"Ecography"},{"key":"B38","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"231","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2005.03.026","article-title":"Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions","volume":"190","author":"Phillips","year":"2006","journal-title":"Ecol. Modell."},{"key":"B39","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3268","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1222463110","article-title":"Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison","volume":"111","author":"Rosenzweig","year":"2014","journal-title":"Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci."},{"key":"B40","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"175","DOI":"10.1038\/nclimate1152","article-title":"Crop\u2013climate models need an overhaul","volume":"1","author":"R\u00f6tter","year":"2011","journal-title":"Nat. Clim. Change"},{"key":"B41","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"369","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1600-0587.2008.05742.x","article-title":"BIOMOD \u2013 a platform for ensemble forecasting of species distributions","volume":"32","author":"Thuiller","year":"2009","journal-title":"Ecography"},{"key":"B42","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2156-11-90","article-title":"Population genetics of foxtail millet and its wild ancestor","volume":"11","author":"Wang","year":"2010","journal-title":"BMC Genet."},{"key":"B43","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"607","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1600-0587.2009.06142.x","article-title":"ENMTools: a toolbox for comparative studies of environmental niche models","volume":"33","author":"Warren","year":"2010","journal-title":"Ecography"},{"key":"B44","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"508","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1239402","article-title":"Climate change impacts on global food security","volume":"341","author":"Wheeler","year":"2013","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"B45","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.agrformet.2023.109799","article-title":"Impacts of record-breaking compound heatwave and drought events in 2022 China on vegetation growth","volume":"344","author":"Xu","year":"2024","journal-title":"Agric. For. Meteorol."},{"key":"B46","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0301751","article-title":"Potential global distribution of setaria italica, an important species for dryland agriculture in the context of climate change","volume":"19","author":"Yang","year":"2024","journal-title":"PloS One"},{"key":"B47","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3726","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1115430109","article-title":"Early millet use in northern China","volume":"109","author":"Yang","year":"2012","journal-title":"Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci."},{"key":"B48","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"62","DOI":"10.15302\/J-FASE-2014027","article-title":"Fighting for the poverty: a case study for human migration in the context of sustainable dryland farming development in the southern ningxia hilly area","volume":"1","author":"Yongqing","year":"2014","journal-title":"Front. Agric. Sci. Eng."},{"key":"B49","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2844","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-019-10775-z","article-title":"Global impacts of future cropland expansion and intensification on agricultural markets and biodiversity","volume":"10","author":"Zabel","year":"2019","journal-title":"Nat. Commun."},{"key":"B50","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.agwat.2022.107485","article-title":"Changes and driving factors of compound agricultural droughts and hot events in eastern China","volume":"263","author":"Zhang","year":"2022","journal-title":"Agric. Water Manage."},{"key":"B51","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"549","DOI":"10.1038\/nbt.2195","article-title":"Genome sequence of foxtail millet (setaria italica) provides insights into grass evolution and biofuel potential","volume":"30","author":"Zhang","year":"2012","journal-title":"Nat. Biotechnol."},{"key":"B52","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolind.2021.108256","article-title":"Analysis of the distribution pattern of Chinese Ziziphus jujuba under climate change based on optimized biomod2 and MaxEnt models","volume":"132","author":"Zhao","year":"2021","journal-title":"Ecol. Indic."},{"key":"B53","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jenvman.2022.115092","article-title":"The impact of high temperature and drought stress on the yield of major staple crops in northern China","volume":"314","author":"Zhu","year":"2022","journal-title":"J. Environ. Manage."},{"key":"B54","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"744","DOI":"10.1111\/2041-210X.13152","article-title":"CoordinateCleaner: Standardized cleaning of occurrence records from biological collection databases","volume":"10","author":"Zizka","year":"2019","journal-title":"Methods Ecol. Evol."}],"container-title":["Frontiers in Plant Science"],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/articles\/10.3389\/fpls.2026.1882902\/full","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,9]],"date-time":"2026-09-09T10:12:11Z","timestamp":1788948731000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/articles\/10.3389\/fpls.2026.1882902\/full"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,9]]},"references-count":54,"alternative-id":["10.3389\/fpls.2026.1882902"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/fpls.2026.1882902","relation":{},"ISSN":["1664-462X"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1664-462X","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,9]]},"article-number":"1882902"}}