{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,20]],"date-time":"2026-10-20T21:51:07Z","timestamp":1792533067961,"version":"4.5.0"},"reference-count":56,"publisher":"Frontiers Media SA","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,25]],"date-time":"2026-08-25T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1787616000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["frontiersin.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Front. Plant Sci."],"abstract":"<jats:p>\n                    In arid-region wheat breeding, environmental fluctuations are large, and screening based on single traits or single-year data is often inaccurate. To address these challenges, this study constructed a multi-model collaborative evaluation system to accurately screen advanced lines for high yield potential and inter-annual consistency. Based on 10 yield traits evaluated in 52 advanced wheat lines over two growing seasons, we utilized systematic clustering to classify lines and stepwise regression to pinpoint core contributing traits. Subsequently, principal component analysis (PCA), membership functions, and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) were integrated for joint validation, enabling the robust identification of lines with superior and inter-annually consistent yield potential. The results showed that: (1) TD-48 and TD-26 ranked among the top ten across all three evaluation methods in both experimental years, showing strong potential for high yield and inter-annual consistency. (2) Cluster analysis divided all tested lines into six categories: High-yield and inter-annually consistent type, High-yield but inter-annually fluctuating type, High-yield type, Medium-yield type, Low-yield type, and Low-yield sensitive type. TD-48 and TD-26 were classified into the high-yield and inter-annually consistent group. (3) A predictive regression model was established via stepwise regression: D\u00a0=\u00a00.16\u00a0+\u00a00.294GY+0.123GWS+0.064TKW+0.107GNP+0.054SNP+0.018BSSN (R\n                    <jats:sup>2<\/jats:sup>\n                    =0.983, P&amp;lt;0.001). Accordingly, grain yield (GY in t\/ha), grain weight per spike (GWS in g), thousand kernel weight (TKW in g), grain number per plant (GNP), spike number per plant (SNP), and basal sterile spikelet number (BSSN) were identified as the core evaluation indicators. The multi-model consensus screening system established in this study can effectively overcome the limitations of a single-method evaluation. Providing reliable methodological support and valuable candidate germplasm resources for the accurate evaluation and efficient screening of breeding materials in arid regions.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3389\/fpls.2026.1907156","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,25]],"date-time":"2026-08-25T05:34:38Z","timestamp":1787636078000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Joint validation of yield and inter-annual consistency and elite lines selection in 52 advanced wheat lines based on a PCA-membership function-TOPSIS collaborative system"],"prefix":"10.3389","volume":"17","author":[{"given":"Yinghao","family":"Zhang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Agriculture, Tarim University","place":["Alar, China"]},{"name":"Key Laboratory of Genetic Improvement and Efficient Production for Specialty Crops in Arid Southern Xinjiang of Xinjiang Corps","place":["Alar, China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mingjun","family":"Ai","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Agriculture, Tarim University","place":["Alar, China"]},{"name":"Key Laboratory of Genetic Improvement and Efficient Production for Specialty Crops in Arid Southern Xinjiang of Xinjiang Corps","place":["Alar, China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Shuaiguo","family":"Ma","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Agriculture, Tarim University","place":["Alar, China"]},{"name":"Key Laboratory of Genetic Improvement and Efficient Production for Specialty Crops in Arid Southern Xinjiang of Xinjiang Corps","place":["Alar, China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Fangyuan","family":"Xu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Agriculture, Tarim University","place":["Alar, China"]},{"name":"Key Laboratory of Genetic Improvement and Efficient Production for Specialty Crops in Arid Southern Xinjiang of Xinjiang Corps","place":["Alar, China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Qi","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Agriculture, Tarim University","place":["Alar, China"]},{"name":"Key Laboratory of Genetic Improvement and Efficient Production for Specialty Crops in Arid Southern Xinjiang of Xinjiang Corps","place":["Alar, China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hongna","family":"Guo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Agriculture, Tarim University","place":["Alar, China"]},{"name":"Key Laboratory of Genetic Improvement and Efficient Production for Specialty Crops in Arid Southern Xinjiang of Xinjiang Corps","place":["Alar, China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yin-Gang","family":"Hu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory for Crop Stress Resistance and High-Efficiency Production, College of Agronomy, Northwest A&F University, Yangling","place":["Shaanxi, China"]},{"name":"Institute of Water Saving Agriculture in Arid Regions of China, Northwest A&F University, Yangling","place":["Shaanxi, China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Qian","family":"Liu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Agriculture, Tarim University","place":["Alar, China"]},{"name":"Key Laboratory of Genetic Improvement and Efficient Production for Specialty Crops in Arid Southern Xinjiang of Xinjiang Corps","place":["Alar, China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Qinglin","family":"Wen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Agriculture, Tarim University","place":["Alar, China"]},{"name":"Key Laboratory of Genetic Improvement and Efficient Production for Specialty Crops in Arid Southern Xinjiang of Xinjiang Corps","place":["Alar, China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1965","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,25]]},"reference":[{"key":"B1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"88","DOI":"10.1093\/jxb\/erad373","article-title":"Grain yield trade-offs in spike-branching wheat can be mitigated by elite alleles affecting sink capacity and post-anthesis source activity","volume":"75","author":"Abbai","year":"2024","journal-title":"J. Exp. Bot."},{"key":"B2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/plants9050609","article-title":"Field screening of rice germplasm (oryza sativa L. ssp. japonica) based on days to flowering for drought escape","volume":"9","author":"Ahmad","year":"2020","journal-title":"Plants"},{"key":"B3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0318559","article-title":"AMMI analysis of elite bread wheat (triticum aestivum L.) selections for genotype by environment interaction and stability of grain yield in southern Ethiopia","volume":"20","author":"Alemayehu","year":"2025","journal-title":"PloS One"},{"key":"B4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/land13111915","article-title":"Evaluating wheat cultivation potential in Ethiopia under the current and future climate change scenarios","volume":"13","author":"Alemayehu","year":"2024","journal-title":"Land"},{"key":"B5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2135\/cropsci1964.0011183X000400050021x","article-title":"Implications of genotype-environmental interactions in applied plant breeding","volume":"4","author":"Allard","year":"1964","journal-title":"Crop Sci."},{"key":"B6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"82","DOI":"10.1016\/j.eja.2017.11.007","article-title":"Analysis of sink\/source relations in bread wheat recombinant inbred lines and commercial cultivars under a high yield potential environment","volume":"93","author":"Alonso","year":"2018","journal-title":"Eur. J. Agron."},{"key":"B7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/plants12142664","article-title":"Performance and stability analysis of selected durum wheat genotypes differing in their kernel characteristics","volume":"12","author":"Al-Sayaydeh","year":"2023","journal-title":"Plants"},{"key":"B8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7717\/peerj.19341","article-title":"Genetic variability and trait associations for physiological and agronomic characteristics in bread wheat genotypes under drought stress and well-watered conditions","volume":"13","author":"Alshaharni","year":"2025","journal-title":"PeerJ"},{"key":"B9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2078","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-026-69936-6","article-title":"Maintenance breeding and breeding for yield potential both contribute to genetic improvement in wheat yield","volume":"17","author":"Andrade","year":"2026","journal-title":"Nat. Commun."},{"key":"B10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fpls.2021.718611","article-title":"Response to early generation genomic selection for yield in wheat","volume":"12","author":"Bonnett","year":"2021","journal-title":"Front. Plant Sci."},{"key":"B11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"337","DOI":"10.1007\/s10681-007-9378-6","article-title":"Returns to investment in new breeding technologies","volume":"157","author":"Brennan","year":"2007","journal-title":"Euphytica"},{"key":"B12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"195","DOI":"10.1016\/j.fcr.2012.09.008","article-title":"Evaluation of 14 morphological, yield-related and physiological traits as indicators of drought tolerance in Chinese winter bread wheat revealed by analysis of the membership function value of drought tolerance (MFVD)","volume":"137","author":"Chen","year":"2012","journal-title":"Field Crops Res."},{"key":"B13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"195","DOI":"10.1016\/j.fcr.2012.09.008","article-title":"Evaluation of 14 morphological, yield-related and physiological traits as indicators of drought tolerance in Chinese winter bread wheat revealed by analysis of the membership function value of drought tolerance (MFVD)","volume":"137","author":"Chen","year":"2012","journal-title":"Field Crops Res."},{"key":"B14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fpls.2025.1672228","article-title":"Comprehensive evaluation and screening of drought resistance in maize at germination and seedling stages","volume":"16","author":"Du","year":"2025","journal-title":"Front. Plant Sci."},{"key":"B15","unstructured":"Faostat\n          \n          \n          \n          2023"},{"key":"B16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/plants14050791","article-title":"Decoding the saline-alkaline tolerance nexus in soybean: a dual-method evaluation model coupled with co-expression networks identifies core regulatory genes","volume":"16","author":"Fei","year":"2025","journal-title":"Front. Plant Sci."},{"key":"B17","volume-title":"Crop Yields and Global Food Security: Will Yield Increase Continue to Feed the World?","author":"Fischer","year":"2014"},{"key":"B18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"611","DOI":"10.1007\/s12892-022-00156-2","article-title":"Assessment of Iranian wheat germplasm for salinity tolerance using analysis of the membership function value of salinity tolerance (MFVS)","volume":"25","author":"Gholizadeh","year":"2022","journal-title":"J. Crop Sci. Biotechnol."},{"key":"B19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"36","DOI":"10.1007\/s11032-025-01554-4","article-title":"Association analysis of response to take-all disease with agronomic traits and molecular markers and selection ideal genotypes in bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) genotypes","volume":"45","author":"Gholizadeh Vazvani","year":"2025","journal-title":"Mol. Breed."},{"key":"B20","first-page":"1","article-title":"A mixed method using AHP-TOPSIS for dryland agriculture crops selection problem","author":"Hadikurniawati","year":"2019"},{"key":"B21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/plants14050791","article-title":"A comprehensive evaluation of soybean germplasm resources for salt tolerance during germination","volume":"14","author":"Han","year":"2025","journal-title":"Plants"},{"key":"B22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.fcr.2025.109889","article-title":"Adaptation progress and challenges of winter wheat breeding in China under climate warming","volume":"326","author":"Han","year":"2025","journal-title":"Field Crops Res."},{"key":"B23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0329681","article-title":"Identification of novel marker-trait associations for agronomic traits in bread wheat under WANA environments through GWAS","volume":"20","author":"Henkrar","year":"2025","journal-title":"PloS One"},{"key":"B24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"744","DOI":"10.1038\/s41587-019-0152-9","article-title":"Breeding crops to feed 10 billion","volume":"37","author":"Hickey","year":"2019","journal-title":"Nat. Biotechnol."},{"key":"B25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.3897\/ejfa.2024.122521","article-title":"Comprehensive assessment of salt-alkali tolerance of different soybean varieties at the maturation stage","volume":"36","author":"Hu","year":"2024","journal-title":"Emir J. Food Agric."},{"key":"B26","unstructured":"Facts and Figures on Food and Biodiversity\n          \n          \n          \n          2010"},{"key":"B27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"140","DOI":"10.1079\/9781789240214.0140","article-title":"Genotype-environment interaction and stability analyses: an update","volume-title":"Quantitative Genetics, Genomics and Plant Breeding","author":"Kang","year":"2020"},{"key":"B28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"22943","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-026-54504-1","article-title":"Genome-wide association mapping and haplotype analysis reveal the genetic architecture of sodicity tolerance in bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)","volume":"16","author":"Kumar","year":"2026","journal-title":"Sci. Rep."},{"key":"B29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.5897\/JPBCS11.093","article-title":"Application of principal component analysis for rice germplasm characterization and evaluation","volume":"4","author":"Maji","year":"2012","journal-title":"J. Plant Breed. Crop Sci."},{"key":"B30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1710","DOI":"10.1186\/s12870-025-07581-9","article-title":"Yield performance and stability of durum wheat varieties in northwestern Ethiopia","volume":"25","author":"Menzir","year":"2025","journal-title":"BMC Plant Biol."},{"key":"B31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.heliyon.2024.e32918","article-title":"Genotype-by-environment interaction and stability analysis of grain yield of bread wheat (triticum aestivum L.) genotypes using AMMI and GGE biplot analyses","volume":"10","author":"Mullualem","year":"2024","journal-title":"Heliyon"},{"key":"B32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"72","DOI":"10.1093\/jxb\/erac415","article-title":"A \u2018wiring diagram\u2019 for source strength traits impacting wheat yield potential","volume":"74","author":"Murchie","year":"2023","journal-title":"J. Exp. Bot."},{"key":"B33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2949","DOI":"10.2134\/agronj2019.03.0220","article-title":"Mean performance and stability in multi-environment trials I: combining features of AMMI and BLUP techniques","volume":"111","author":"Olivoto","year":"2019","journal-title":"Agron. J."},{"key":"B34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2961","DOI":"10.2134\/agronj2019.03.0221","article-title":"Mean performance and stability in multi-environment trials II: selection based on multiple traits","volume":"111","author":"Olivoto","year":"2019","journal-title":"Agron. J."},{"key":"B35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/nu12103045","article-title":"Dietary fibre from whole grains and their benefits on metabolic health","volume":"12","author":"P","year":"2020","journal-title":"Nutrients"},{"key":"B36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0066428","article-title":"Yield trends are insufficient to double global crop production by 2050","volume":"8","author":"Ray","year":"2013","journal-title":"PloS One"},{"key":"B37","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"991","DOI":"10.1534\/genetics.119.302134","article-title":"Heritability in plant breeding on a genotype-difference basis","volume":"212","author":"Schmidt","year":"2019","journal-title":"Genetics"},{"key":"B38","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"178","DOI":"10.1002\/fes3.64","article-title":"The contribution of wheat to human diet and health","volume":"4","author":"Shewry","year":"2015","journal-title":"Food Energy Secur"},{"key":"B39","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2299","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jia.2024.12.029","article-title":"Multi-dimensional comprehensive evaluation reveals the quality trait characteristics of wheat cultivars in the Huang-Huai wheat region of China","volume":"25","author":"Shi","year":"2026","journal-title":"J. Integr. Agric."},{"key":"B40","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"71","DOI":"10.1016\/j.fcr.2013.12.004","article-title":"Coarse and fine regulation of wheat yield components in response to genotype and environment","volume":"157","author":"Slafer","year":"2014","journal-title":"Field Crops Res."},{"key":"B41","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/horticulturae9121264","article-title":"Comprehensive evaluation of nutritional qualities of Chinese cabbage (Brassica rapa ssp. pekinensis) varieties based on multivariate statistical analysis","volume":"9","author":"Song","year":"2023","journal-title":"Horticulturae"},{"key":"B42","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/agronomy9050245","article-title":"Consistency of yield ranking and adaptability patterns of winter wheat cultivars between multi-environmental trials and farmer surveys","volume":"9","author":"Studnicki","year":"2019","journal-title":"Agronomy"},{"key":"B43","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fpls.2021.619926","article-title":"Screening of key drought tolerance indices for cotton at the flowering and boll setting stage using the dimension reduction method","volume":"12","author":"Sun","year":"2021","journal-title":"Front. Plant Sci."},{"key":"B44","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"70","DOI":"10.1007\/s11738-018-2645-4","article-title":"Screening of rice landraces (oryza sativa L.) for seedling stage salinity tolerance using morpho-physiological and molecular markers","volume":"40","author":"Tahjib-Ul-Arif","year":"2018","journal-title":"Acta Physiol. Plant"},{"key":"B45","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"818","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1183700","article-title":"Breeding technologies to increase crop production in a changing world","volume":"327","author":"Tester","year":"2010","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"B46","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7717\/peerj.16838","article-title":"Screening of salt tolerance of maize (Zea mays L.) lines using membership function value and GGE biplot analysis","volume":"12","author":"Tian","year":"2024","journal-title":"PeerJ"},{"key":"B47","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/plants14142191","article-title":"Screening and comprehensive evaluation of drought resistance in cotton germplasm resources at the germination stage","volume":"14","author":"Wang","year":"2025","journal-title":"Plants"},{"key":"B48","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/plants13223201","article-title":"Screening and evaluation of salt-tolerant wheat germplasm based on the main morphological indices at the germination and seedling stages","volume":"13","author":"Xu","year":"2024","journal-title":"Plants"},{"key":"B49","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1201\/9781420040371","volume-title":"GGE Biplot Analysis: A Graphical Tool for Breeders, Geneticists, and Agronomists","author":"Yan","year":"2002"},{"key":"B50","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"643","DOI":"10.2135\/cropsci2006.06.0374","article-title":"GGE biplot vs. AMMI analysis of genotype-by-environment data","volume":"47","author":"Yan","year":"2007","journal-title":"Crop Sci."},{"key":"B51","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"294","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envpol.2013.04.033","article-title":"Influence of plant root morphology and tissue composition on phenanthrene uptake: Stepwise multiple linear regression analysis","volume":"179","author":"Zhan","year":"2013","journal-title":"Environ. pollut."},{"key":"B52","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/agronomy11081569","article-title":"Comprehensive evaluation of salt tolerance in rice (oryza sativa L.) germplasm at the germination stage","volume":"11","author":"Zhang","year":"2021","journal-title":"Agronomy"},{"key":"B53","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fpls.2025.1660834","article-title":"Optimizing source-sink relationships and photoprotective mechanisms in wheat to enhance photosynthetic efficiency and nitrogen management","volume":"16","author":"Zhang","year":"2025","journal-title":"Front. Plant Sci."},{"key":"B54","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/su16177366","article-title":"Screening and physiological responses of maize inbred lines to drought stress in south China","volume":"16","author":"Zhang","year":"2024","journal-title":"Sustainability"},{"key":"B55","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"213","DOI":"10.1007\/s00122-023-04459-y","article-title":"A major QTL simultaneously increases the number of spikelets per spike and thousand-kernel weight in a wheat line","volume":"136","author":"Zhao","year":"2023","journal-title":"Theor. Appl. Genet."},{"key":"B56","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/plants12183259","article-title":"Phenotypic variation analysis and excellent clone selection of Alnus cremastogyne from different provenances","volume":"12","author":"Zheng","year":"2023","journal-title":"Plants"}],"container-title":["Frontiers in Plant Science"],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/articles\/10.3389\/fpls.2026.1907156\/full","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,25]],"date-time":"2026-08-25T05:34:40Z","timestamp":1787636080000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/articles\/10.3389\/fpls.2026.1907156\/full"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,25]]},"references-count":56,"alternative-id":["10.3389\/fpls.2026.1907156"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/fpls.2026.1907156","relation":{},"ISSN":["1664-462X"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1664-462X","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,25]]},"article-number":"1907156"}}