{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,13]],"date-time":"2026-08-13T04:30:34Z","timestamp":1786595434829,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":71,"publisher":"Frontiers Media SA","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,13]],"date-time":"2026-08-13T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1786579200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["frontiersin.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Front. Psychol."],"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Objective<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The influence of social welfare and psychological factors is becoming increasingly prominent in China\u2019s people-oriented new-type urbanization. However, how macro-level public service provision translates into urbanization outcomes through psychological mechanisms remains poorly understood.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Materials and methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>This study introduces migrants\u2019 settlement intention (MSI), a psychological construct capturing expectations, social belonging, and future-oriented decisions, as a mediator between basic public service provision (BPSP) and population urbanization (PU) in China. Using panel data from 291 Chinese prefectural cities and the China Migrants Dynamic Survey (2014\u20132018), this study employs a moderated mediation model to examine how BPSP affects PU through MSI.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      Findings indicate that MSI partially and positively mediates the BPSP-PU relationship after overcoming the endogeneity issues, with significant and positive paths from BPSP to MSI (\n                      <jats:italic>\u03b2<\/jats:italic>\n                      =\u202f0.368,\n                      <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\n                      &amp;lt;\u202f0.01) and from MSI to PU (\n                      <jats:italic>\u03b2<\/jats:italic>\n                      =\u202f0.005,\n                      <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\n                      &amp;lt;\u202f0.05). Besides, housing price negatively moderates this mediation (\n                      <jats:italic>\u03b2<\/jats:italic>\n                      =\u202f\u22120.149,\n                      <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\n                      \u202f&amp;lt;\u202f0.05;\n                      <jats:italic>\u03b2<\/jats:italic>\n                      =\u202f\u22120.035,\n                      <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\n                      \u202f&amp;lt;\u202f0.05), while hukou restrictions negatively moderate the BPSP-MSI link (\n                      <jats:italic>\u03b2<\/jats:italic>\n                      =\u202f\u22120.296,\n                      <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\n                      \u202f&amp;lt;\u202f0.01) but positively moderate the MSI-PU link (\n                      <jats:italic>\u03b2<\/jats:italic>\n                      =\u202f0.242,\n                      <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\n                      \u202f&amp;lt;\u202f0.01). These mediating and moderating effects remain reliable and consistent across a series of robustness checks. Heterogeneity analyses further reveal that: First, livelihood-related services not only amplify the mediating effect of MSI between BPSP and PU, but also enhance the negative moderating effect of hukou restrictions. Second, MSI shows a suppression effect on PU in Central China and has a significant positive mediating effect in Northeast China. Moreover, housing price and hukou restrictions moderate the mediation most strongly in Eastern and Western China, respectively. Third, MSI mediates the BPSP-PU link more positively and significantly in peripheral cities. Housing price moderates more negatively in central cities, and hukou restrictions moderate more strongly in peripheral cities.\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>By identifying MSI as a forward-looking psychological conduit, this study advances a psychological account of urbanization and underscores the value of integrating urban psychology with public policy to foster sustainable, human-centered urban development.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.3389\/fpsyg.2026.1887684","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,13]],"date-time":"2026-08-13T04:23:35Z","timestamp":1786595015000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["The psychological mechanism of basic public service provision affecting population urbanization in China: a moderated mediation model based on migrants\u2019 settlement intention"],"prefix":"10.3389","volume":"17","author":[{"given":"Zerui","family":"Ni","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Administration, Huaiyin Normal University","place":["Huai'an, China"]},{"name":"School of Social Development and Public Policy, Fudan University","place":["Shanghai, China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yan","family":"Jin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Marxism, Shanghai Lixin University of Accounting and Finance","place":["Shanghai, China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1965","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,13]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1177\/09500170261425857","article-title":"The role of settlement intentions (un-)certainty in the labour market integration of Ukrainian refugees in Germany","author":"Adunts","year":"2026","journal-title":"Work Employ. 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