{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,24]],"date-time":"2026-07-24T11:01:26Z","timestamp":1784890886457,"version":"3.55.0"},"reference-count":30,"publisher":"Frontiers Media SA","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,24]],"date-time":"2026-07-24T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1784851200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["frontiersin.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Front. Psychiatry"],"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Introduction<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Neurodevelopmental disorders are increasingly straining health systems. However, how these disorders are distributed across populations, or whether their occurrence is increasing, is still not fully understood. This study examined registry-based prevalence, temporal trends, geographic variation, and associated systemic factors in a Central Asian setting.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>We analysed national electronic health-registry data from Kazakhstan for children aged \u226415 years from 2014 to 2024 using a repeated cross-sectional design. The register is a prevalent \u201con-the-register\u201d stock registry, and the unit of analysis is the registry record per child-year; the pooled total of 214,904 records therefore represents child-year observations rather than unique children. Annual registry-based prevalence was calculated against official population denominators. Temporal trends were modelled with negative-binomial regression and summarized as annual percent change (APC) and segmented regression; regional differences and associated factors were examined with Bayesian hierarchical and mixed-effects models.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Among the 214,904 registered records, intellectual disability made up the largest share at 60.8%, followed by autism spectrum disorder at 20.9%, other developmental disorders at 17.1%, and attention-deficit\/hyperactivity disorder at 1.1%. Registry-based ASD prevalence rose steeply from 16.8 to 190.5 per 100,000 (APC +27.0%\/year), accelerating after the 2021 policy expansion. In contrast, other developmental disorders (\u22127.8%\/year) and ADHD (\u221210.2%\/year) declined, while intellectual-disability prevalence remained essentially stable (APC \u22120.7%\/year, not statistically significant). The decline in the share of intellectual disability therefore reflects a compositional shift driven by the increase in ASD. Marked geographic differences were observed, with higher registry-based ASD prevalence in metropolitan areas and northern and eastern regions, together with strong differences related to the diagnosing specialist.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Discussion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>These patterns indicate that registered neurodevelopmental diagnoses in Kazakhstan are shaped not only by epidemiology but heavily by changing diagnostic practices, specialist availability, reimbursement policy, and the organization of services. Registry-based estimates should therefore be interpreted as measures of ascertainment rather than of true population prevalence. This study offers a national perspective on registry-based trends in developing regions and emphasizes the importance of systemic factors when planning services and estimating the true burden of these disorders.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.3389\/fpsyt.2026.1880419","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,24]],"date-time":"2026-07-24T10:10:38Z","timestamp":1784887838000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Diverging trends in neurodevelopmental disorder diagnoses among children aged below 16 years in Kazakhstan (2014\u20132024): a national registry study"],"prefix":"10.3389","volume":"17","author":[{"given":"Amir","family":"Baikatov","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Brain Institute, Farabi Kazakh National University","place":["Almaty, Kazakhstan"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ayat","family":"Assemov","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Clinical Diagnostic Laboratory OLYMP","place":["Astana, Kazakhstan"]},{"name":"Salidat Kairbekova National Scientific Center for Health Development of the Ministry of Health of the Republic of Kazakhstan","place":["Astana, Kazakhstan"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Dias","family":"Alimbetov","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Brain Institute, Farabi Kazakh National University","place":["Almaty, Kazakhstan"]},{"name":"Department of Biophysics, Biomedicine, and Neuroscience, Farabi Kazakh National University","place":["Almaty, Kazakhstan"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Almira","family":"Kustubayeva","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Brain Institute, Farabi Kazakh National University","place":["Almaty, Kazakhstan"]},{"name":"Department of Biophysics, Biomedicine, and Neuroscience, Farabi Kazakh National University","place":["Almaty, Kazakhstan"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1965","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,24]]},"reference":[{"key":"B1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2147\/CEOR.S370311","article-title":"The cost of neurodevelopmental disability: Scoping review of economic evaluation methods","volume":"14","author":"Kularatna","year":"2022","journal-title":"Clinicoecon Outcomes Res"},{"key":"B2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5409\/wjcp.v11.i2.120","article-title":"Classification, prevalence and integrated care for neurodevelopmental and child mental health disorders: A brief overview for paediatricians","volume":"11","author":"Ogundele","year":"2022","journal-title":"World J Clin Pediatr"},{"key":"B3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"5","DOI":"10.1038\/s41572-019-0138-4","article-title":"Autism spectrum disorder","volume":"6","author":"Lord","year":"2020","journal-title":"Nat Rev Dis Primers"},{"key":"B4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"17254","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-023-44472-1","article-title":"Prevalence and trends of developmental disabilities among US children and adolescents aged 3 to 17 years, 2018\u20132021","volume":"13","author":"Li","year":"2023","journal-title":"Sci Rep"},{"key":"B5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S2045796022000701","article-title":"Significant regional inequalities in the prevalence of intellectual disability and trends from 1990 to 2019: A systematic analysis of GBD 2019","volume":"31","author":"Nair","year":"2022","journal-title":"Epidemiol Psychiatr Sci"},{"key":"B6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S2215-0366(24)00363-8","article-title":"The global epidemiology and health burden of the autism spectrum: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021","volume":"12","author":"Santomauro","year":"2025","journal-title":"Lancet Psychiatry"},{"key":"B7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41380-025-03178-8","article-title":"Prevalence of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder\/hyperkinetic disorder of pediatric and adult populations in clinical settings: a systematic review, meta-analysis and meta-regression","volume":"31","author":"Johnson","year":"2026","journal-title":"Mol Psychiatry"},{"key":"B8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/YCO.0000000000000229","article-title":"Updated findings on neurodevelopmental disorders in Taiwan: Impact of the institutionalized national healthcare system on prevalence and health outcomes","volume":"29","author":"Wang","year":"2016","journal-title":"Curr Opin Psychiatry"},{"key":"B9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e68","DOI":"10.1192\/j.eurpsy.2024.1786","article-title":"Prevalence of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD): systematic review and meta-analysis","volume":"67","author":"Popit","year":"2024","journal-title":"Eur Psychiatry"},{"key":"B10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/acps.13368","article-title":"Male to female ratios in autism spectrum disorders by age, intellectual disability and attention-deficit\/hyperactivity disorder","volume":"144","author":"Posserud","year":"2021","journal-title":"Acta Psychiatr Scand"},{"key":"B11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(24)00757-8","article-title":"Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990\u20132021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021","volume":"403","author":"Ferrari","year":"2024","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"B12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2025.1609254","article-title":"Trends and cross-country inequalities in the global burden of neurodevelopmental disorders among children aged 0\u201314 from 1990 to 2021","volume":"13","author":"Jia","year":"2025","journal-title":"Front Public Health"},{"key":"B13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jped.2025.101478","article-title":"Warning signs for identifying neurodevelopmental disorders: a systematic literature review","volume":"102","author":"Ara\u00fajo","year":"2026","journal-title":"J Pediatr (Rio J)"},{"key":"B14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/srep36566","article-title":"Heterogeneity of executive functions among comorbid neurodevelopmental disorders","volume":"6","author":"Dajani","year":"2016","journal-title":"Sci Rep"},{"key":"B15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"260","DOI":"10.1002\/wps.20727","article-title":"Intellectual developmental disorder and autism spectrum disorder in the WPA next triennium mainstream","volume":"19","author":"Bertelli","year":"2020","journal-title":"World Psychiatry"},{"key":"B16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fpsyt.2019.00526","article-title":"State of the field: Differentiating intellectual disability from autism spectrum disorder","volume":"10","author":"Thurm","year":"2019","journal-title":"Front Psychiatry"},{"key":"B17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41380-021-01161-7","article-title":"Age at onset of mental disorders worldwide: Large-scale meta-analysis of 192 epidemiological studies","volume":"27","author":"Solmi","year":"2022","journal-title":"Mol Psychiatry"},{"key":"B18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S2214-109X(18)30399-1","article-title":"Early childhood developmental disabilities\u2014data still needed","volume":"6","author":"Black","year":"2018","journal-title":"Lancet Glob Health"},{"key":"B19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fpsyt.2025.1520460","article-title":"Epidemiological trends in autism and other neurodevelopmental disorders in Kazakhstan (2016\u20132022): a regional and national perspective","volume":"16","author":"Nukeshtayeva","year":"2025","journal-title":"Front Psychiatry"},{"key":"B20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"15256","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-026-46715-3","article-title":"Incidence of autism spectrum disorder in children in Kazakhstan and risk factors associated with all-cause hospitalizations","volume":"16","author":"Mussina","year":"2026","journal-title":"Sci Rep"},{"key":"B21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10803-024-06350-1","article-title":"Awareness of autism spectrum disorder among population of Kazakhstan","volume":"55","author":"Kurmanalina","year":"2025","journal-title":"J Autism Dev Disord"},{"key":"B22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"316","DOI":"10.4103\/jehp.jehp_1040_24","article-title":"Addressing the training gaps for ASD specialists in Kazakhstan: A forecast-based approach","volume":"14","author":"Rymkhanova","year":"2025","journal-title":"J Educ Health Promot"},{"key":"B23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10803-021-05021-9","article-title":"Autism and the knowledge and beliefs of specialists in Kazakhstan","volume":"52","author":"Somerton","year":"2022","journal-title":"J Autism Dev Disord"},{"key":"B24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/1362361320923494","article-title":"Chasing hope\u201d: Parents\u2019 perspectives on complementary and alternative interventions for children with autism in Kazakhstan","volume":"24","author":"An","year":"2020","journal-title":"Autism"},{"key":"B25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2676","DOI":"10.1186\/s12889-025-23764-3","article-title":"Autism spectrum disorders: experience of parents in Kazakhstan","volume":"25","author":"Imamatdinova","year":"2025","journal-title":"BMC Public Health"},{"key":"B26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/gmh.2022.51","article-title":"Stress, anxiety and depression in parents of children with autism spectrum disorders in Kazakhstan: Prevalence and associated factors","volume":"9","author":"Alibekova","year":"2022","journal-title":"Glob Ment Health"},{"key":"B27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/13623613241273042","article-title":"Effects of autism spectrum disorder on parents\u2019 labour market: productivity loss and policy evaluation in Kazakhstan","volume":"29","author":"Kosherbayeva","year":"2025","journal-title":"Autism"},{"key":"B28","unstructured":"Qazstat - Bureau of National Statistics of the Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Dynamic Tables"},{"key":"B29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2018.8931","article-title":"Association of digital media use with subsequent symptoms of attention-deficit\/hyperactivity disorder among adolescents","volume":"320","author":"Ra","year":"2018","journal-title":"JAMA"},{"key":"B30","unstructured":"Republic of Kazakhstan. Law on Social and Medical-Pedagogical Correctional Support for Children With Disabilities\n          \n          2002"}],"container-title":["Frontiers in Psychiatry"],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/articles\/10.3389\/fpsyt.2026.1880419\/full","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,24]],"date-time":"2026-07-24T10:10:39Z","timestamp":1784887839000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/articles\/10.3389\/fpsyt.2026.1880419\/full"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,24]]},"references-count":30,"alternative-id":["10.3389\/fpsyt.2026.1880419"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/fpsyt.2026.1880419","relation":{},"ISSN":["1664-0640"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1664-0640","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,24]]},"article-number":"1880419"}}