{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,21]],"date-time":"2026-10-21T12:07:16Z","timestamp":1792584436349,"version":"4.5.0"},"reference-count":43,"publisher":"Frontiers Media SA","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,5]],"date-time":"2024-09-05T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1725494400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["frontiersin.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Front. Public Health"],"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Aims<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>This study addresses the essential need for updated information on the burden of lip and oral cavity cancer (LOC) in China for informed healthcare planning. We aim to estimate the temporal trends and the attributable burdens of selected risk factors of LOC in China (1990\u20132021), and to predict the possible trends (2022\u20132031).<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Subject and methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Analysis was conducted using data from the Global Burden of Disease study (GBD) 2021, encompassing six key metrics: incidence, mortality, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and years of life lost (YLLs). Absolute number and age-standardized rates, alongside 95% uncertainty intervals, were computed. Forecasting of disease burden from 2022 to 2031 was performed using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Over the observed period (1990\u20132021), there were notable increases in the number of deaths (142.2%), incidence (283.7%), prevalence (438.0%), DALYs (109.2%), YLDs (341.2%), and YLLs (105.1%). Age-standardized rates demonstrated notable changes, showing decreases and increases of \u22125.8, 57.3, 143.7, \u22128.9%, 85.8%, and\u2009\u2212\u200910.7% in the respective metrics. The substantial majority of LOC burden was observed among individuals aged 40\u201379\u2009years, and LOC may exhibit a higher burden among males in China. From 2022 to 2031, the age-standardized rate of incidence, prevalence, and YLDs of LOC showed upward trends; while mortality, DALYs, and YLLs showed downward trends, and their estimated values were predicted to change to 2.72, 10.47, 1.11, 1.10, 28.52, and 27.43 per 100,000 in 2031, respectively. Notably, tobacco and high alcohol use emerged as predominant risk factors contributing to the burden of LOC.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Between 1990 and 2021, the disability burden from LOC in China increased, while the death burden decreased, and projections suggest these trends will persist over the next decade. A significant portion of this disease burden to modifiable risk factors, specifically tobacco use and excessive alcohol consumption, predominantly affecting males and individuals aged 40\u201379\u2009years. Attention to these areas is essential for implementing targeted interventions and reducing the impact of LOC in China.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2024.1419428","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,5]],"date-time":"2024-09-05T00:49:03Z","timestamp":1725497343000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":22,"title":["Disease burden and attributable risk factors of lip and oral cavity cancer in China from 1990 to 2021 and its prediction to 2031"],"prefix":"10.3389","volume":"12","author":[{"given":"Zhengrong","family":"Yu","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Xiangming","family":"Ma","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hanyu","family":"Xiao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yihong","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yuhang","family":"Wu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jing","family":"He","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Peiyu","family":"Cheng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1965","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,5]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"420","DOI":"10.1001\/jamaoncol.2021.6987","article-title":"Cancer incidence, mortality, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life years for 29 Cancer groups from 2010 to 2019: A systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2019","volume":"8","author":"Kocarnik","year":"2022","journal-title":"JAMA Oncol"},{"key":"ref2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1401","DOI":"10.1001\/jamaoncol.2023.2960","article-title":"The global, regional, and National Burden of adult lip, Oral, and pharyngeal Cancer in 204 countries and territories: A systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2019","volume":"9","author":"Cunha","year":"2023","journal-title":"JAMA Oncol"},{"key":"ref3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"394","DOI":"10.3322\/caac.21492","article-title":"Global cancer statistics 2018: GLOBOCAN estimates of incidence and mortality worldwide for 36 cancers in 185 countries","volume":"68","author":"Bray","year":"2018","journal-title":"CA Cancer J Clin"},{"key":"ref4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"104551","DOI":"10.1016\/j.oraloncology.2019.104551","article-title":"Global patterns and trends in cancers of the lip, tongue and mouth","volume":"102","author":"Miranda-Filho","year":"2020","journal-title":"Oral Oncol"},{"key":"ref5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e33","DOI":"10.4317\/medoral.18486","article-title":"Are we able to reduce the mortality and morbidity of oral cancer; some considerations","volume":"18","author":"Van Der Waal","year":"2013","journal-title":"Med Oral"},{"key":"ref6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"229","DOI":"10.1016\/j.joms.2005.11.094","article-title":"Tongue Cancer: is there a difference in survival compared with other subsites in the Oral cavity?","volume":"65","author":"Bell","year":"2007","journal-title":"J Oral Maxillofac Surg"},{"key":"ref7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"18153","DOI":"10.1002\/cam4.6391","article-title":"Disease burden, risk factors, and trends of lip, oral cavity, pharyngeal cancers: A global analysis","volume":"12","author":"Huang","year":"2023","journal-title":"Cancer Med"},{"key":"ref8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"122","DOI":"10.1186\/s12889-023-15050-x","article-title":"Disease burden and attributable risk factors of neonatal disorders and their specific causes in China from 1990 to 2019 and its prediction to 2024","volume":"23","author":"Wu","year":"2023","journal-title":"BMC Public Health"},{"key":"ref9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"580","DOI":"10.1038\/bjc.2014.579","article-title":"Alcohol consumption and site-specific cancer risk: a comprehensive dose\u2013response meta-analysis","volume":"112","author":"Bagnardi","year":"2015","journal-title":"Br J Cancer"},{"key":"ref10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"340","DOI":"10.1016\/j.oraloncology.2008.05.018","article-title":"Lifestyle risk factors for oral cancer","volume":"45","author":"Petti","year":"2009","journal-title":"Oral Oncol"},{"key":"ref11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2133","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(24)00757-8","article-title":"Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990\u20132021: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2021","volume":"403","author":"Ferrari","year":"2024","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"ref12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1204","DOI":"10.1016\/s0140-6736(20)30925-9","article-title":"Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2019","volume":"396","year":"2020","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"ref13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2162","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(24)00933-4","article-title":"Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990\u20132021: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2021","volume":"403","author":"Brauer","year":"2024","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"ref14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1223","DOI":"10.1016\/s0140-6736(20)30752-2","article-title":"Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2019","volume":"396","year":"2020","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"ref15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e1226","DOI":"10.1016\/S2214-109X(21)00298-9","article-title":"Preterm births in China between 2012 and 2018: an observational study of more than 9 million women","volume":"9","author":"Deng","year":"2021","journal-title":"Lancet Glob Health"},{"key":"ref16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e072385","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj-2022-072385","article-title":"Global burden of type 2 diabetes in adolescents and young adults, 1990-2019: systematic analysis of the global burden of disease study 2019","volume":"379","author":"Xie","year":"2022","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"key":"ref17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1186\/1478-7954-1-1","article-title":"Comparative quantification of health risks conceptual framework and methodological issues","volume":"1","author":"Murray","year":"2003","journal-title":"Popul Health Metrics"},{"key":"ref18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1245","DOI":"10.1007\/s40122-022-00422-9","article-title":"Time trends in the incidence of spinal pain in China, 1990 to 2019 and its prediction to 2030: the global burden of disease study 2019","volume":"11","author":"Wei","year":"2022","journal-title":"Pain Ther"},{"key":"ref19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"6532","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph19116532","article-title":"Lip, Oral cavity and pharyngeal Cancer burden in the European Union from 1990\u20132019 using the 2019 global burden of disease study","volume":"19","author":"O\u2019Sullivan","year":"2022","journal-title":"IJERPH"},{"key":"ref20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"143","DOI":"10.1177\/0022034519894963","article-title":"Incidence trends of lip, Oral cavity, and pharyngeal cancers: global burden of disease 1990\u20132017","volume":"99","author":"Du","year":"2020","journal-title":"J Dent Res"},{"key":"ref21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"88","DOI":"10.1027\/0227-5910\/a000076","article-title":"A systematic review of elderly suicide prevention programs","volume":"32","author":"Lapierre","year":"2011","journal-title":"Crisis"},{"key":"ref22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1611","DOI":"10.3390\/healthcare10091611","article-title":"Lip and Oral cavity Cancer burden and related risk factors in China: estimates and forecasts from 1990 to 2049","volume":"10","author":"Zhang","year":"2022","journal-title":"Health"},{"key":"ref23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e0194411","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0194411","article-title":"Competency model for dentists in China: results of a Delphi study","volume":"13","author":"Geng","year":"2018","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"ref24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"75","DOI":"10.1002\/cac2.12393","article-title":"Cancer situation in China: what does the China cancer map indicate from the first national death survey to the latest cancer registration?","volume":"43","author":"Feng","year":"2023","journal-title":"Cancer Commun"},{"key":"ref25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1364","DOI":"10.1016\/j.joms.2020.12.035","article-title":"The inequitable global burden of lip and Oral cancers: widening disparities across countries","volume":"79","author":"Harris","year":"2021","journal-title":"J Oral Maxillofac Surg"},{"key":"ref26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"15591","DOI":"10.18632\/oncotarget.24570","article-title":"Treatment of oral cancer using magnetized paclitaxel","volume":"9","author":"Nakakaji","year":"2018","journal-title":"Oncotarget"},{"key":"ref27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"309","DOI":"10.1016\/j.oraloncology.2008.06.002","article-title":"Global epidemiology of oral and oropharyngeal cancer","volume":"45","author":"Warnakulasuriya","year":"2009","journal-title":"Oral Oncol"},{"key":"ref28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"558","DOI":"10.1186\/s12903-021-01918-0","article-title":"Global, regional, and national burden and quality of care index (QCI) of lip and oral cavity cancer: a systematic analysis of the global burden of disease study 1990\u20132017","volume":"21","author":"Sofi-Mahmudi","year":"2021","journal-title":"BMC Oral Health"},{"key":"ref29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"143","DOI":"10.1038\/s41568-021-00423-4","article-title":"Smokeless tobacco and cigarette smoking: chemical mechanisms and cancer prevention","volume":"22","author":"Hecht","year":"2022","journal-title":"Nat Rev Cancer"},{"key":"ref30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"366","DOI":"10.3390\/biom11030366","article-title":"Identification of new markers of alcohol-derived DNA damage in humans","volume":"11","author":"Guidolin","year":"2021","journal-title":"Biomol Ther"},{"key":"ref31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3","DOI":"10.1016\/j.lfs.2012.10.009","article-title":"Roles of alcohol and tobacco exposure in the development of hepatocellular carcinoma","volume":"92","author":"Purohit","year":"2013","journal-title":"Life Sci"},{"key":"ref32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1165","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1440-1843.2011.02062.x","article-title":"Tobacco smoking in China: prevalence, disease burden, challenges and future strategies","volume":"16","author":"Zhang","year":"2011","journal-title":"Respirology"},{"key":"ref33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"7","DOI":"10.1016\/s2352-4642(23)00260-2","article-title":"Protecting young people in China from tobacco","volume":"8","author":"Hu","year":"2024","journal-title":"Lancet Child Adolesc Health"},{"key":"ref34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"237","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2020.00237","article-title":"Trends in disease burden attributable to tobacco in China, 1990-2017: findings from the global burden of disease study 2017","volume":"8","author":"Wen","year":"2020","journal-title":"Front Public Health"},{"key":"ref35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"103698","DOI":"10.1016\/j.drugpo.2022.103698","article-title":"The transition of alcohol control in China 1990-2019: impacts and recommendations","volume":"105","author":"Hu","year":"2022","journal-title":"Int J Drug Policy"},{"key":"ref36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"19","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jfda.2014.05.002","article-title":"The development of alcohol policy in contemporary China","volume":"23","author":"Guo","year":"2015","journal-title":"J Food Drug Anal"},{"key":"ref37","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1946","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1360-0443.2011.03514.x","article-title":"Drinking behaviour among men and women in China: the 2007 China chronic disease and risk factor surveillance: drinking behaviours in China","volume":"106","author":"Li","year":"2011","journal-title":"Addiction"},{"key":"ref38","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e257","DOI":"10.1016\/S2214-109X(18)30488-1","article-title":"Disparities by province, age, and sex in site-specific cancer burden attributable to 23 potentially modifiable risk factors in China: a comparative risk assessment","volume":"7","author":"Chen","year":"2019","journal-title":"Lancet Glob Health"},{"key":"ref39","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"26","DOI":"10.1016\/j.puhe.2020.01.011","article-title":"Prevalence of smoking among adolescents in China: an updated systematic review and meta-analysis","volume":"182","author":"Sheng Xiong","year":"2020","journal-title":"Public Health"},{"key":"ref40","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"476","DOI":"10.3389\/fcimb.2019.00476","article-title":"The Oral microbiota may have influence on Oral Cancer","volume":"9","author":"Zhang","year":"2020","journal-title":"Front Cell Infect Microbiol"},{"key":"ref41","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"155798832110163","DOI":"10.1177\/15579883211016361","article-title":"Men and Oral health: A review of sex and gender differences","volume":"15","author":"Lipsky","year":"2021","journal-title":"Am J Mens Health"},{"key":"ref42","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"5665","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph17165665","article-title":"Dementia-free life expectancy among people over 60 years old by sex, urban and rural areas in Jiangxi Province, China","volume":"17","author":"Wu","year":"2020","journal-title":"Int J Environ Res Public Health"},{"key":"ref43","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"106","DOI":"10.1186\/s12943-024-02020-z","article-title":"Aging and cancer","volume":"23","author":"Mont\u00e9gut","year":"2024","journal-title":"Mol Cancer"}],"container-title":["Frontiers in Public Health"],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/articles\/10.3389\/fpubh.2024.1419428\/full","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,5]],"date-time":"2024-09-05T00:49:07Z","timestamp":1725497347000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/articles\/10.3389\/fpubh.2024.1419428\/full"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,5]]},"references-count":43,"alternative-id":["10.3389\/fpubh.2024.1419428"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/fpubh.2024.1419428","relation":{},"ISSN":["2296-2565"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2296-2565","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,5]]},"article-number":"1419428"}}