{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,6]],"date-time":"2026-10-06T11:17:23Z","timestamp":1791285443854,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":37,"publisher":"Frontiers Media SA","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,7,31]],"date-time":"2024-07-31T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1722384000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["frontiersin.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Front. Public Health"],"abstract":"<jats:sec><jats:title>Background<\/jats:title><jats:p>The COVID-19 pandemic and associated non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have led to substantial decreases in case numbers of infectious diseases in several countries worldwide. As NPIs were gradually lifted, intense or out-of-season outbreaks of respiratory and gastrointestinal diseases were reported, raising the hypothesis of a potential catch-up effect of infections. By analysing surveillance data from the federal reporting system for notifiable infectious diseases, we aimed to assess the potential impact of lifting COVID-19 associated NPIs on notifications of selected infectious diseases in Bavaria, 2022.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>We compared influenza, chickenpox, norovirus gastroenteritis, rotavirus gastroenteritis weekly case numbers in a pre-pandemic period (2016\u20132019) and 2022 using two time series analyses approaches: (i) a predictive model forecasting weekly case numbers for the pandemic years 2020\u20132022, based on 2016\u20132019 data, (ii) interrupted time series model, based on 2016\u20132022 data, including a term per pandemic period.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>In 2022, incidence rates were higher compared to pre-pandemic period for influenza (IRR\u202f=\u202f3.47, 95%CI: 1.49\u20137.94) and rotavirus gastroenteritis (IRR\u202f=\u202f1.36, 95%CI: 0.95\u20131.93), though not significant for rotavirus gastroenteritis. Conversely, case numbers remained significantly below pre-pandemic levels for chickenpox (IRR\u202f=\u202f0.52, 95%CI: 0.41\u20130.65) and norovirus gastroenteritis (IRR\u202f=\u202f0.59, 95%CI: 0.42\u20130.82). Seasonality changed notably for influenza, showing an earlier influenza wave compared to pre-pandemic periods.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title><jats:p>The lifting of NPIs was associated with heterogenic epidemiological patterns depending on the selected disease. The full impact of NPIs and their discontinuation may only become clear with continued monitoring and assessment of potential additional contributing factors.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2024.1437485","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,7,31]],"date-time":"2024-07-31T05:14:49Z","timestamp":1722402889000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":10,"title":["Lifting COVID-19-associated non-pharmaceutical interventions: potential impact on notifications of infectious diseases transmitted from person to person in 2022 in Bavaria, Germany"],"prefix":"10.3389","volume":"12","author":[{"given":"Judith","family":"Hausmann","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Achim","family":"D\u00f6rre","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Katharina","family":"Katz","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sarah","family":"van de Berg","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1965","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,7,31]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.lanepe.2021.100103","article-title":"Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated non-pharmaceutical interventions on other notifiable infectious diseases in Germany: an analysis of national surveillance data during week 1-2016 \u2013 week 32-2020","author":"Ullrich","year":"2021","journal-title":"Lancet Reg Health Eur"},{"key":"ref2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"6923","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-021-27292-7","article-title":"Changes in notifiable infectious disease incidence in China during the COVID-19 pandemic","volume":"12","author":"Geng","year":"2021","journal-title":"Nat Commun"},{"key":"ref3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1541","DOI":"10.1080\/14760584.2022.2117693","article-title":"Lifting non-pharmaceutical interventions following the COVID-19 pandemic - the quiet before the storm?","volume":"21","author":"Oh","year":"2022","journal-title":"Expert Rev Vaccines"},{"key":"ref4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2300030","DOI":"10.2807\/1560-7917.ES.2023.28.41.2300030","article-title":"Epidemiology of common infectious diseases before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in Bavaria, Germany, 2016 to 2021: an analysis of routine surveillance data","volume":"28","author":"Van de Berg","year":"2023","journal-title":"Euro Surveill"},{"key":"ref5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"254","DOI":"10.1186\/s12879-023-08224-w","article-title":"Predicting norovirus and rotavirus resurgence in the United States following the COVID-19 pandemic: a mathematical modelling study","volume":"23","author":"Lappe","year":"2023","journal-title":"BMC Infect Dis"},{"key":"ref6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"30547","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2013182117","article-title":"The impact of COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions on the future dynamics of endemic infections","volume":"117","author":"Baker","year":"2020","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci USA"},{"key":"ref7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"178","DOI":"10.3390\/microorganisms10010178","article-title":"The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown on pediatric infections \u2013 a single-center retrospective study","volume":"10","author":"Grochowska","year":"2022","journal-title":"Microorganisms"},{"key":"ref8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s15010-022-01756-4","article-title":"The rising of old foes: impact of lockdown periods on \u201cnon-SARS-CoV-2\u201d viral respiratory and gastrointestinal infections","author":"Maison","year":"2022","journal-title":"Infection"},{"key":"ref9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1232","DOI":"10.1002\/jmv.27426","article-title":"Norovirus outbreak amid COVID-19 in the United Kingdom; priorities for achieving control","volume":"94","author":"Yasmin","year":"2021","journal-title":"J Med Virol"},{"key":"ref10","article-title":"European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. 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