{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,30]],"date-time":"2026-10-30T00:01:24Z","timestamp":1793318484902,"version":"4.5.0"},"reference-count":41,"publisher":"Frontiers Media SA","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,12,18]],"date-time":"2024-12-18T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1734480000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["frontiersin.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Front. Public Health"],"abstract":"<jats:sec><jats:title>Background<\/jats:title><jats:p>HFMD is a common infectious disease that is prevalent worldwide. In many provinces in China, there have been outbreaks and epidemics of whooping cough, posing a threat to public health.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Purpose<\/jats:title><jats:p>It is crucial to grasp the epidemiological characteristics of HFMD in Quzhou and establish a prediction model for HFMD to lay the foundation for early warning of HFMD.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Method<\/jats:title><jats:p>Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the epidemic characteristics of HFMD, the incidence map was drawn by ArcGIS software, the Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and Prophet model were established by R software. Then, root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) were used to evaluate the fitting and prediction performances of the model.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>From 2010 to 2023, Quzhou City reported a total of 66,601 cases of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD), with the annual number of reported cases fluctuating between 2,265 and 7,964. The average annual incidence rate was 216.88\/100,000, with the lowest in 2010 (97.08 \/100,000) and the highest in 2016 (373.37\/100,000) (<jats:italic>P<\/jats:italic><jats:sub>trend<\/jats:sub>\u202f&amp;lt;\u202f0.001). The cases exhibited a seasonal bimodal distribution, with the first peak occurring from April to July and the second peak from October to December. The incidence rate of HFMD in males (246.71\/100,000) was higher than that in females (185.81 \/100,000). The performance of the SARIMA (1,0,1)(2,1,0)<jats:sub>12<\/jats:sub> model was better than that of the Prophet model in terms of prediction accuracy.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title><jats:p>The incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Quzhou is on the rise in 2010\u20132016 and 2022\u20132023. In this study, the SARIMA prediction model was compared with the FB Prophet model. Data for more years can then be observed to better predict trends in the incidence of HFMD, providing a basis for prevention strategies and resource allocation. Further research can optimize the model to enhance predictive ability to improve the understanding and management of Chinese rival foot and mouth disease.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2024.1474855","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,12,18]],"date-time":"2024-12-18T06:48:59Z","timestamp":1734504539000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":6,"title":["Epidemiological characteristics and prediction model construction of hand, foot and mouth disease in Quzhou City, China, 2005\u20132023"],"prefix":"10.3389","volume":"12","author":[{"given":"Wenjie","family":"Xu","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Canjie","family":"Zheng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Canya","family":"Fu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Xiaoying","family":"Gong","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Quanjun","family":"Fang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Zhiying","family":"Yin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1965","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,12,18]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2490","DOI":"10.1128\/JCM.02369-09","article-title":"Clinical and etiological characteristics of enterovirus 71-related diseases during a recent 2-year period in Korea","volume":"48","author":"Ryu","year":"2010","journal-title":"J Clin Microbiol"},{"key":"ref2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"778","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(10)70194-8","article-title":"Virology, epidemiology, pathogenesis, and control of enterovirus 71","volume":"10","author":"Solomon","year":"2010","journal-title":"Lancet Infect Dis"},{"key":"ref3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e1001975","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1001975","article-title":"Routine pediatric enterovirus 71 vaccination in China: a cost-effectiveness analysis","volume":"13","author":"Wu","year":"2016","journal-title":"PLoS Med"},{"key":"ref4","first-page":"347","article-title":"Guidelines for the Diagnosis and Treatment of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease","volume":"2018","year":"2018","journal-title":"Chinese J Infect. Dis"},{"key":"ref5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"554","DOI":"10.13242\/j.cnki.bingduxuebao.002776","article-title":"Epidemiological status and pathogenic changes of hand, foot and mouth disease in China","volume":"31","author":"Qi","year":"2015","journal-title":"J Virol"},{"key":"ref6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"94","DOI":"10.1186\/1743-422X-7-94","article-title":"An emerging recombinant human enterovirus 71 responsible for the 2008 outbreak of hand foot and mouth disease in Fuyang city of China","volume":"7","author":"Zhang","year":"2010","journal-title":"Virol J"},{"key":"ref7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"147","DOI":"10.3760\/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2019.02.005","article-title":"Analysis of trend and pathogen dynamics of hand, foot and mouth disease in China 2008-2017","volume":"40","author":"Jing","year":"2019","journal-title":"Chinese J Epidemiol"},{"key":"ref8","first-page":"186","article-title":"Analysis of epidemic characteristics and trend of Hfmd in China after infection with novel coronavirus type B tubes","volume":"21","author":"Raintun","year":"2023","journal-title":"Trop Dis Parasitol"},{"key":"ref9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"307","DOI":"10.19485\/j.cnki.issn2096-5087.2022.03.019","article-title":"2016-2019 epidemiological characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease in Zhejiang Province","volume":"34","author":"Mengtao","year":"2022","journal-title":"Prev Med"},{"key":"ref10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"69","DOI":"10.1186\/s12879-016-1404-7","article-title":"Prevalence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Yiyuan County, China, 2005-2014","volume":"16","author":"Wang","year":"2016","journal-title":"BMC Infect Dis"},{"key":"ref11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"138817","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2020.138817","article-title":"Estimation of Covid-19 prevalence in Italy, Spain, and France","volume":"729","author":"Ceylan","year":"2020","journal-title":"Sci Total Environ"},{"key":"ref12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"551","DOI":"10.11783\/j.issn.1002-3674.2024.04.015","article-title":"Sarima model prediction of pertussis in Shanxi province","volume":"41","author":"Yuqin","year":"2024","journal-title":"China Health Statis"},{"key":"ref13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"239","DOI":"10.3784\/jbjc.202201300027","article-title":"Application of Sarima model and Bpnn model in prediction of tuberculosis in Jiangsu Province","volume":"25","author":"Hao","year":"2024","journal-title":"Chin J Preven Med"},{"key":"ref14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"5910","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph19105910","article-title":"A combined model of Sarima and prophet models in forecasting Aids incidence in Henan Province, China","volume":"19","author":"Luo","year":"2022","journal-title":"Int J Environ Res Public Health"},{"key":"ref15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1445","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-021-81100-2","article-title":"Trend analysis and forecast of daily reported incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Hubei, China by prophet model","volume":"11","author":"Xie","year":"2021","journal-title":"Sci Rep"},{"key":"ref16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2862","DOI":"10.20043\/j.cnki.MPM.202404162","article-title":"Analysis and trend prediction of syphilis prevalence in Aksu region 2008 - 2023","volume":"51","author":"Quan","year":"2024","journal-title":"Modern Preven Med"},{"key":"ref17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"629","DOI":"10.3784\/jbjc.202306300314","article-title":"Prediction of influenza - like cases in Jiaxing, Zhejiang Province based on prophet model","volume":"39","author":"Yang","year":"2024","journal-title":"Dis Sur"},{"key":"ref18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e16263","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjopen-2017-016263","article-title":"Predicting the hand, foot, and mouth disease incidence using search engine query data and climate variables: an ecological study in Guangdong, China","volume":"7","author":"Zhicheng","year":"2017","journal-title":"BMJ Open"},{"key":"ref19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"144","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268815001144","article-title":"Predicting the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Sichuan province, China using the ARIMA model","volume":"144","author":"Liu","year":"2016","journal-title":"Epidemiol Infect"},{"key":"ref20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1118","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268816003216","article-title":"Hybrid methodology for tuberculosis incidence time-series forecasting based on ARIMA and a NAR neural network","volume":"145","author":"Wang","year":"2017","journal-title":"Epidemiol Infect"},{"key":"ref21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2167","DOI":"10.1186\/s12889-022-14642-3","article-title":"Comparison of Arima model, Dnn model and Lstm model in predicting disease burden of occupational pneumoconiosis in Tianjin, China","volume":"22","author":"Lou","year":"2022","journal-title":"BMC Public Health"},{"key":"ref22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"914","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jiph.2020.06.001","article-title":"Forecasting the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic in Saudi Arabia using Arima prediction model under current public health interventions","volume":"13","author":"Alzahrani","year":"2020","journal-title":"J Infect Public Health"},{"key":"ref23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e167836","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0167836","article-title":"Spatio-temporal pattern and influencing factors of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (Hfrs) in Hubei Province (China) between 2005 and 2014","volume":"11","author":"Ge","year":"2016","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"ref24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"106610","DOI":"10.1016\/j.asoc.2020.106610","article-title":"Forecasting of Covid19 per regions using Arima models and polynomial functions","volume":"96","author":"Hernandez-Matamoros","year":"2020","journal-title":"Appl Soft Comput"},{"key":"ref25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph13080757","article-title":"Seasonality and trend forecasting of tuberculosis prevalence data in eastern cape, South Africa, using a hybrid model","volume":"13","author":"Azeez","year":"2016","journal-title":"Int J Environ Res Public Health"},{"key":"ref26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"37","DOI":"10.1080\/00031305.2017.1380080","article-title":"Forecasting at scale","volume":"72","author":"Taylor","year":"2018","journal-title":"Am Stat"},{"key":"ref27","first-page":"229","article-title":"Trend analysis of joint point regression model of hand foot and mouth disease in Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region in 2008-2022","volume":"39","author":"Hui","year":"2024","journal-title":"Dis Surveill"},{"key":"ref28","first-page":"318","article-title":"2010\u20132021 Gansu Province hand, foot and mouth disease monitoring analysis and model prediction","volume":"39","author":"Yang","year":"2024","journal-title":"Dis Sur"},{"key":"ref29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"960","DOI":"10.16506\/j.1009-6639.2023.09.014","article-title":"Epidemiological characteristics and pathogenic analysis of hand, foot and mouth disease in Fujian Province 2016-2020","volume":"24","author":"Qi Xiaoyang","year":"2023","journal-title":"Chin J Preven Med"},{"key":"ref30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1763","DOI":"10.19405\/j.cnki.issn1000-1492.2023.10.026","article-title":"Epidemiological characteristics and pathogenic changes of hand, foot and mouth disease in Anhui Province in 2015-2022","volume":"58","author":"Wanwen","year":"2023","journal-title":"J Anhui Med Univ"},{"key":"ref31","first-page":"59","article-title":"2008 ~ 2012 epidemiological survey of hand, foot and mouth disease in Zhangjiakou area","volume":"14","author":"Wu","year":"2017","journal-title":"China Med Herald"},{"key":"ref32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1152","DOI":"10.3760\/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2018.09.003","article-title":"Analysis of spatial and temporal epidemic characteristics of 2009 - 2013 hand, foot and mouth disease epidemic in Shaanxi Province","volume":"39","author":"Yao","year":"2018","journal-title":"Chin J Epidemiol"},{"key":"ref33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"458","DOI":"10.19914\/j.cjvi.2016.04.020","article-title":"Technical guidelines for the use of inactivated enterovirus 71 vaccine","volume":"22","author":"Zhijie","year":"2016","journal-title":"Vaccine Immunization China"},{"key":"ref34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1394","DOI":"10.16462\/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2019.11.019","article-title":"Dynasty broad talent. Time series analysis and prediction model of monthly incidence of Hfmd in China 2008 - 2016","volume":"23","author":"Yuyang","year":"2019","journal-title":"Chin J Dis Control"},{"key":"ref35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"398","DOI":"10.3760\/cma.j.issn.1000-6680.2012.07.005","article-title":"Study on survival of enterovirus 71 on the surface of medium under different climatic conditions","volume":"30","author":"Yun","year":"2012","journal-title":"Chin J Infect Dis"},{"key":"ref36","first-page":"2219","article-title":"Analysis of pathogenic distribution and epidemiological characteristics of hand foot and mouth disease in Jinhua City in 2019-2022","volume":"33","author":"Long","year":"2023","journal-title":"China J Health Inspec"},{"key":"ref37","first-page":"184","article-title":"Advances in serological epidemiology of enterovirus 71 and coxsackie virus a 16 infection in children","author":"Li","year":"2015"},{"key":"ref38","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"46","DOI":"10.3760\/cma.j.issn.1673-4092.2023.01.010","article-title":"Analysis of epidemiological characteristics of Hfmd in Hebei Province in 2012 - 2019","volume":"30","author":"Chenchen","year":"2023","journal-title":"Int J Virol"},{"key":"ref39","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"110301","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envres.2020.110301","article-title":"Forecast and early warning of hand, foot, and mouth disease based on meteorological factors: evidence from a multicity study of 11 meteorological geographical divisions in mainland China","volume":"192","author":"Gao","year":"2021","journal-title":"Environ Res"},{"key":"ref40","volume-title":"Establishment and evaluation of prediction model for the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Liuzhou City","author":"Rui","year":"2017"},{"key":"ref41","volume-title":"Construction and spatial autocorrelation analysis of Arima prediction model for the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in China","author":"Yuyang","year":"2020"}],"container-title":["Frontiers in Public Health"],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/articles\/10.3389\/fpubh.2024.1474855\/full","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,12,18]],"date-time":"2024-12-18T06:49:14Z","timestamp":1734504554000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/articles\/10.3389\/fpubh.2024.1474855\/full"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2024,12,18]]},"references-count":41,"alternative-id":["10.3389\/fpubh.2024.1474855"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/fpubh.2024.1474855","relation":{},"ISSN":["2296-2565"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2296-2565","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2024,12,18]]},"article-number":"1474855"}}