{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,30]],"date-time":"2026-09-30T17:39:01Z","timestamp":1790789941411,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":39,"publisher":"Frontiers Media SA","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,28]],"date-time":"2024-11-28T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1732752000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["frontiersin.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Front. Public Health"],"abstract":"<jats:sec><jats:title>Background<\/jats:title><jats:p>Dengue fever is a serious public health issue in Bangladesh, where its incidence rises with the monsoon. Meteorological variables are believed to be responsible factors among others. Therefore, this study examines the effects of meteorological variables (temperature, rainfall, and humidity) on dengue incidence in Bangladesh. While previous studies have examined the relationship between dengue and meteorological variables using single model approaches, this study employs advanced econometric techniques to capture dynamic interactions. Furthermore, in the case of Bangladesh, this type of analysis is necessary due to the fact that dengue outbreak become one of the major issues. However, the analysis related to this issue is not available.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>For estimation purposes, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, Granger causality tests, Impulse Response Function (IRF), Variance Decomposition (VDC), and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) are employed.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>Rainfall has a significant impact on dengue incidence compared to temperature and humidity. The Granger causality test demonstrates that rainfall and dengue incidence are causally related unidirectionally. Rainfall can potentially have a short-term and long-term effect on the incidence of dengue, as per the estimates of the VECM model.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title><jats:p>These findings will assist policymakers in Bangladesh in developing a dengue fever early warning system depending on climate change. In order to efficiently avoid the spread of dengue in Bangladesh's dengue-endemic urban areas, this study suggests societal monitoring.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2024.1488742","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,28]],"date-time":"2024-11-28T06:33:19Z","timestamp":1732775599000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":5,"title":["Analysis of effects of meteorological variables on dengue incidence in Bangladesh using VAR and Granger causality approach"],"prefix":"10.3389","volume":"12","author":[{"given":"Md. Jamal","family":"Hossain","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nazia","family":"Sultana","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Anwesha","family":"Das","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Fariea Nazim","family":"Jui","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Md. Kamrul","family":"Islam","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Md. Mijanoor","family":"Rahman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mohammad Mafizur","family":"Rahman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1965","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,28]]},"reference":[{"key":"B1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2024.1346692","article-title":"Youth's climate consciousness: unraveling the Dengue-climate connection in Bangladesh","volume":"12","author":"Siddique","year":"2024","journal-title":"Front Public Health."},{"key":"B2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"107518","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envint.2022.107518","article-title":"Impact of extreme weather on dengue fever infection in four Asian countries: a modelling analysis","volume":"169","author":"Wang","year":"2022","journal-title":"Environ Int."},{"key":"B3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"21","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph21050558","article-title":"The impact of climatic factors on temporal mosquito distribution and population dynamics in an area targeted for sterile insect technique pilot trials","author":"Mazarire","year":"2024","journal-title":"Int J Environ Res Public Health"},{"key":"B4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1625","DOI":"10.1007\/s40121-021-00470-2","article-title":"The global trends and regional differences in incidence of dengue infection from 1990 to 2019: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019","volume":"10","author":"Du","year":"2021","journal-title":"Infect Dis Ther."},{"key":"B5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1116","DOI":"10.1080\/22221751.2021.1935327","article-title":"Clinical signs and symptoms associated with WHO severe dengue classification: a systematic review and meta-analysis","volume":"10","author":"Htun","year":"2021","journal-title":"Emerg Microbes Infect."},{"key":"B6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e0207878","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0207878","article-title":"Periods of high dengue transmission defined by rainfall do not impact efficacy of dengue vaccine in regions of endemic disease","volume":"13","author":"Id","year":"2018","journal-title":"PLoS ONE"},{"key":"B7","unstructured":"2021\n          \n          World Health Organization Ten threats to global health in 2019\n          22\n          2019"},{"key":"B8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1186\/s12940-022-00829-z","article-title":"Modeling present and future climate risk of dengue outbreak, a case study in New Caledonia","volume":"21","author":"Ochida","year":"2022","journal-title":"Environ Health A Glob Access Sci Source."},{"key":"B9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1287","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(19)30616-4","article-title":"Unprecedented rise in dengue outbreaks in Bangladesh","volume":"19","author":"Hsan","year":"2019","journal-title":"Lancet Infect Dis."},{"key":"B10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1186\/s12879-020-4902-6","article-title":"The time series seasonal patterns of dengue fever and associated weather variables in Bangkok (2003-2017)","volume":"20","author":"Polwiang","year":"2020","journal-title":"BMC Infect Dis."},{"key":"B11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0190673","article-title":"Assessment of a trap based Aedes aegypti surveillance program using mathematical modeling","volume":"13","author":"Lana","year":"2018","journal-title":"PLoS ONE."},{"key":"B12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"457","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2486.2011.02522.x","article-title":"Nonlinear impacts of climatic variability on the density-dependent regulation of an insect vector of disease","volume":"18","author":"Chaves","year":"2012","journal-title":"Glob Chang Biol."},{"key":"B13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0004417","article-title":"Climate and the timing of imported cases as determinants of the dengue outbreak in Guangzhou, 2014: evidence from a mathematical model","volume":"10","author":"Cheng","year":"2016","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis."},{"key":"B14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"14944","DOI":"10.1007\/s11356-018-1528-y","article-title":"Climate variability and dengue hemorrhagic fever in Southeast Sulawesi Province, Indonesia","volume":"25","author":"Tosepu","year":"2018","journal-title":"Environ Sci Pollut Res Int"},{"key":"B15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2149","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(19)32524-3","article-title":"The dengue epidemic in Bangladesh: risk factors and actionable items","volume":"394","author":"Mamun","year":"2019","journal-title":"Lancet."},{"key":"B16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0006947","article-title":"Geostatistical mapping of the seasonal spread of under-reported dengue cases in Bangladesh","volume":"12","author":"Sharmin","year":"2018","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis."},{"key":"B17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"137","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envint.2013.11.002","article-title":"Projecting the impact of climate change on dengue transmission in Dhaka, Bangladesh","volume":"63","author":"Banu","year":"2014","journal-title":"Environ Int."},{"key":"B18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1186\/s12938-018-0575-4","article-title":"The climatic factors affecting dengue fever outbreaks in southern Taiwan: an application of symbolic data analysis","volume":"17","author":"Lai","year":"2018","journal-title":"Biomed Eng Online."},{"key":"B19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0007213","article-title":"Global expansion and redistribution of Aedes-borne virus transmission risk with climate change","volume":"13","author":"Ryan","year":"2018","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis."},{"key":"B20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.7759\/cureus.3398","article-title":"Correlates of climate variability and dengue fever in two metropolitan cities in Bangladesh","volume":"10","author":"Zahirul Islam","year":"2018","journal-title":"Cureus."},{"key":"B21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"12","DOI":"10.3390\/atmos12070905","article-title":"Climate variability, dengue vector abundance and dengue fever cases in Dhaka, Bangladesh: a time-series study","author":"Islam","year":"2021","journal-title":"Atmosphere"},{"key":"B22","first-page":"32","article-title":"Climatic factors influencing dengue cases in Dhaka city: a model for dengue prediction","volume":"136","author":"Karim","year":"2012","journal-title":"Indian J Med Res."},{"key":"B23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0199457","article-title":"Risk factors for the presence of dengue vector mosquitoes, and determinants of their prevalence and larval site selection in Dhaka, Bangladesh","volume":"13","author":"Paul","year":"2018","journal-title":"PLoS ONE."},{"key":"B24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"551","DOI":"10.1016\/0165-1889(88)90055-3","article-title":"Causality, cointegration, and control","volume":"12","author":"Granger","year":"1988","journal-title":"J Econ Dyn Control."},{"key":"B25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"251","DOI":"10.2307\/1913236","article-title":"Co-integration and error correction : representation, estimation, and testing","volume":"55","author":"Engle","year":"1987","journal-title":"Econometrica."},{"key":"B26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"850","DOI":"10.1080\/07474938.2016.1172400","article-title":"Testing for Granger-causality in quantiles","volume":"37","author":"Troster","year":"2018","journal-title":"Econom Rev."},{"key":"B27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.46298\/jpe.10676","article-title":"A review of the Granger-causality fallacy","author":"Maziarz","year":"2015","journal-title":"J Philos Econ"},{"key":"B28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"119","DOI":"10.1016\/0304-4076(95)01753-4","article-title":"Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models","volume":"74","author":"Koop","year":"1996","journal-title":"J Econom."},{"key":"B29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"352","DOI":"10.1016\/S2222-1808(13)60084-5","article-title":"Generating temporal model using climate variables for the prediction of dengue cases in Subang Jaya, Malaysia","volume":"3","author":"Dom","year":"2013","journal-title":"Asian Pacific J Trop Dis."},{"key":"B30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1088\/1755-1315\/987\/1\/012001","article-title":"Identifying high-risk areas of dengue by meteorological factors in Thailand","volume":"987","author":"Langkulsen","year":"2022","journal-title":"IOP Conf Ser Earth Environ Sci"},{"key":"B31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-021-21496-7","article-title":"Climate predicts geographic and temporal variation in mosquito-borne disease dynamics on two continents","volume":"12","author":"Caldwell","year":"2021","journal-title":"Nat Commun."},{"key":"B32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"110900","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envres.2021.110900","article-title":"Extreme weather conditions and dengue outbreak in Guangdong, China: spatial heterogeneity based on climate variability","volume":"196","author":"Cheng","year":"2021","journal-title":"Environ Res."},{"key":"B33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2023.1287678","article-title":"Prior water availability modifies the effect of heavy rainfall on dengue transmission: a time series analysis of passive surveillance data from southern China","volume":"11","author":"Cheng","year":"2023","journal-title":"Front Public Health."},{"key":"B34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e1002613","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1002613","article-title":"Nonlinear and delayed impacts of climate on dengue risk in Barbados: a modelling study","volume":"15","author":"Lowe","year":"2018","journal-title":"PLoS Med"},{"key":"B35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0000382","article-title":"Local and global effects of climate on dengue transmission in Puerto Rico","volume":"3","author":"Johansson","year":"2009","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis."},{"key":"B36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"251","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9493.2007.00300.x","article-title":"Regional variability in relationships between climate and dengue\/DHF in Indonesia","volume":"28","author":"Arcari","year":"2007","journal-title":"Singap J Trop Geogr."},{"key":"B37","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"322","DOI":"10.1016\/j.idm.2018.11.004","article-title":"Long-term predictors of dengue outbreaks in Bangladesh: a data mining approach","volume":"3","author":"Titus Muurlink","year":"2018","journal-title":"Infect Dis Model."},{"key":"B38","article-title":"New edition","year":"2009"},{"key":"B39","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"139","DOI":"10.1016\/0304-3932(82)90012-5","article-title":"Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series: some evidence and implications","volume":"10","author":"Nelson","year":"1982","journal-title":"J Monet Econ"}],"container-title":["Frontiers in Public Health"],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/articles\/10.3389\/fpubh.2024.1488742\/full","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,28]],"date-time":"2024-11-28T06:33:23Z","timestamp":1732775603000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/articles\/10.3389\/fpubh.2024.1488742\/full"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,28]]},"references-count":39,"alternative-id":["10.3389\/fpubh.2024.1488742"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/fpubh.2024.1488742","relation":{},"ISSN":["2296-2565"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2296-2565","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,28]]},"article-number":"1488742"}}