{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,22]],"date-time":"2026-06-22T15:09:26Z","timestamp":1782140966666,"version":"3.54.5"},"reference-count":53,"publisher":"Frontiers Media SA","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,29]],"date-time":"2025-01-29T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1738108800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["frontiersin.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Front. Public Health"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Up to now, tuberculosis (TB) remains a global public health problem, posing a serious threat to human health. Traditional methods for analyzing time-varying trends, such as age and period, tend to ignore the poor impact of birth cohorts, which is an important factor in the development of TB. The age-period-cohort (APC) model, a statistical method widely used in recent decades in economics, sociology, and epidemiology, can quantitatively estimate the efficacy of different age, period, and birth cohort groups for TB by separating the effects of these three dimensions and controlling for confounding factors among the time variables. The purpose of this paper is to briefly review the model, focus on the application of the existing APC model in the field of TB, and explain its advantages and disadvantages. This study will help to provides a theoretical basis and reference for using the APC model in TB analysis and prediction.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2025.1486946","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,29]],"date-time":"2025-01-29T07:00:17Z","timestamp":1738134017000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4,"title":["Application of the age-period-cohort model in tuberculosis"],"prefix":"10.3389","volume":"13","author":[{"given":"Dan","family":"Luo","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Fengying","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Songhua","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yu","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Wei","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Qian","family":"Wu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yuxiao","family":"Ling","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yiqing","family":"Zhou","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yang","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kui","family":"Liu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Bin","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1965","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,29]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref1","volume-title":"Global Tuberculosis Report 2023","year":"2023"},{"key":"ref2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"14","DOI":"10.7189\/jogh.14.04023","article-title":"Global, regional, and national mortality of tuberculosis attributable to alcohol and tobacco from 1990 to 2019: A modelling study based on the global burden of disease study 2019","volume":"14","author":"Wu","year":"2024","journal-title":"J Glob Health"},{"key":"ref3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"19","DOI":"10.1016\/j.hrtlng.2024.01.009","article-title":"Global, regional, and national time trends in incidence for tuberculosis, 1990-2019: an age-period-cohort analysis for the global burden of disease 2019 study","volume":"65","author":"Lan","year":"2024","journal-title":"Heart Lung"},{"key":"ref4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1225931","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2023.1225931","article-title":"Temporal trends in mortality of tuberculosis attributable to high fasting plasma glucose in China from 1990 to 2019: a joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analysis","volume":"11","author":"Wang","year":"2023","journal-title":"Front Public Health"},{"key":"ref5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1240","DOI":"10.1093\/cid\/cit027","article-title":"Prevention of tuberculosis in older adults in the United States: obstacles and opportunities","volume":"56","author":"Hochberg","year":"2013","journal-title":"Clin Infect Dis"},{"key":"ref6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"88","DOI":"10.1186\/s12916-015-0341-4","article-title":"Tuberculosis control strategies to reach the 2035 global targets in China: the role of changing demographics and reactivation disease","volume":"13","author":"Huynh","year":"2015","journal-title":"BMC Med"},{"key":"ref7","first-page":"1","article-title":"The age, period, and cohort effects in the study of the trends of disease","volume":"1","year":"1939","journal-title":"J Natl Cancer Inst"},{"key":"ref8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"21","DOI":"10.13546\/j.cnki.tjyjc.2014.23.005","article-title":"Recent research advances in parameter estimation methods for age-period-cohort models","volume":"23","author":"Su","year":"2014","journal-title":"Statist Decis"},{"key":"ref9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"85","DOI":"10.1186\/s40249-022-01009-4","article-title":"Age-period-cohort analysis of pulmonary tuberculosis reported incidence, China, 2006-2020","volume":"11","author":"Dong","year":"2022","journal-title":"Infect Dis Poverty"},{"key":"ref10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"80","DOI":"10.1214\/16-STS580","article-title":"A review and comparison of age\u2013period\u2013cohort models for Cancer incidence","volume":"31","author":"Smith","year":"2016","journal-title":"Stat Sci"},{"key":"ref11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1392","DOI":"10.1111\/add.15696","article-title":"Understanding long-term trends in smoking in England, 1972-2019: an age-period-cohort approach","volume":"117","author":"Opazo Breton","year":"2022","journal-title":"Addiction"},{"key":"ref12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s13524-019-00824-z","article-title":"Correction to: determinants of influenza mortality trends: age-period-cohort analysis of influenza mortality in the United States, 1959-2016","author":"Acosta","year":"2019","journal-title":"Demography"},{"key":"ref13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"770","DOI":"10.2105\/AJPH.87.5.770","article-title":"The AIDS epidemic among Spanish drug users: a birth cohort-associated phenomenon","volume":"87","author":"Castilla","year":"1997","journal-title":"Am J Public Health"},{"key":"ref14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/infdis\/jiae485","article-title":"Trends, age-period-cohort effects, and projections in the incidence and mortality of HIV\/AIDS among the elderly in China","author":"Chen","year":"2024","journal-title":"J Infect Dis"},{"key":"ref15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e2024075","DOI":"10.4178\/epih.e2024075","article-title":"Epidemic characteristics of measles and efforts to control measles infections in Zhejiang Province","volume":"46","author":"Yan","year":"2024","journal-title":"China Epidemiol Health"},{"key":"ref16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"425","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.pu.12.050191.002233","article-title":"Understanding the effects of age, period, and cohort on incidence and mortality rates","volume":"12","author":"Holford","year":"1991","journal-title":"Annu Rev Public Health"},{"key":"ref17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"75","DOI":"10.1111\/j.0081-1750.2004.00148.x","article-title":"A methodological comparison of age-period-cohort models: the intrinsic estimator and conventional generalized linear models","volume":"34","author":"Yang","year":"2016","journal-title":"Sociol Methodol"},{"key":"ref18","volume-title":"Age-period-cohort model of incidence and mortality of ischemic heart disease: Empirical comparison of estimation methods","author":"Yang","year":"2023"},{"key":"ref19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"438","DOI":"10.1111\/add.16061","article-title":"Age, period and cohort effects on alcohol-related risky behaviours in Australia from 2001 to 2016","volume":"118","author":"Yuen","year":"2022","journal-title":"Addiction"},{"key":"ref20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"729","DOI":"10.1007\/s10654-011-9595-0","article-title":"Changing mortality for motor neuron disease in France (1968-2007): an age-period-cohort analysis","volume":"26","author":"Gordon","year":"2011","journal-title":"Eur J Epidemiol"},{"key":"ref21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"27549","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2008336117","article-title":"Prenatal and early-life exposure to the great Chinese famine increased the risk of tuberculosis in adulthood across two generations","volume":"117","author":"Cheng","year":"2020","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci USA"},{"key":"ref22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"757","DOI":"10.1007\/s10654-023-01004-5","article-title":"The role of environmental factors on sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease mortality: evidence from an age-period-cohort analysis","volume":"38","author":"Denouel","year":"2023","journal-title":"Eur J Epidemiol"},{"key":"ref23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2296","DOI":"10.1158\/1055-9965.EPI-14-0300","article-title":"A web tool for age-period-cohort analysis of cancer incidence and mortality rates","volume":"23","author":"Rosenberg","year":"2014","journal-title":"Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev"},{"key":"ref24","volume-title":"Analysis and prediction of Morbility and mortality trend of breast Cancer in Chinese women based on GBD big data","author":"Yuan","year":"2019"},{"key":"ref25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"S315","DOI":"10.2105\/AJPH.2018.304687","article-title":"Age-period-cohort analyses of tuberculosis incidence rates by nativity, United States, 1996-2016","volume":"108","author":"Iqbal","year":"2018","journal-title":"Am J Public Health"},{"key":"ref26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"229","DOI":"10.1111\/j.0105-2896.2005.00257.x","article-title":"The influence of age on immunity to infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis","volume":"205","author":"Vesosky","year":"2005","journal-title":"Immunol Rev"},{"key":"ref27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"70","DOI":"10.1186\/s40249-017-0284-4","article-title":"The strategic framework of tuberculosis control and prevention in the elderly: a scoping review towards end TB targets","volume":"6","author":"Li","year":"2017","journal-title":"Infect Dis Poverty"},{"key":"ref28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"B38","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vaccine.2011.02.053","article-title":"The 1918 influenza pandemic hastened the decline of tuberculosis in the United States: an age, period, cohort analysis","volume":"29","author":"Noymer","year":"2011","journal-title":"Vaccine"},{"key":"ref29","first-page":"657","article-title":"Age-period-cohort analysis of pulmonary tuberculosis mortality in Taiwan: 1961 to 1990","volume":"93","author":"Lee","year":"1994","journal-title":"J Formos Med Assoc"},{"key":"ref30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"181","DOI":"10.19982\/j.issn.1000-6621.20220376","article-title":"Analysis of trendintuberculosis incidence among people aged 0-10 years in China based on an age-period-cohort model","volume":"45","author":"Liu","year":"2023","journal-title":"Chinese Journal of Antituberculosis"},{"key":"ref31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"101646","DOI":"10.1016\/j.eclinm.2022.101646","article-title":"Time trends in tuberculosis mortality across the BRICS: an age-period-cohort analysis for the GBD 2019","volume":"53","author":"Zou","year":"2022","journal-title":"Eclinicalmedicine"},{"key":"ref32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"16624","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-021-95967-8","article-title":"Long-term trends of tuberculosis incidence and mortality in four central African countries","volume":"11","author":"Martial","year":"2021","journal-title":"Sci Rep"},{"key":"ref33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"16624","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph17093334","article-title":"A Long-term trend study of tuberculosis incidence in China, India and United States 1992-2017: A Joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysis","volume":"17","author":"Cui","year":"2020","journal-title":"Int J Environ Res Public Health"},{"key":"ref34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"409","DOI":"10.2307\/2060979","article-title":"The contribution of medical measures to the decline of mortality from respiratory tuberculosis: an age-period-cohort model","volume":"19","author":"Collins","year":"1982","journal-title":"Demography"},{"key":"ref35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"96647","DOI":"10.1007\/s11356-023-29248-4","article-title":"Spatial-temporal patterns and influencing factors for pulmonary tuberculosis transmission in China: an analysis based on 15 years of surveillance data","volume":"30","author":"Wei","year":"2023","journal-title":"Environ Sci Pollut Res"},{"key":"ref36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1155\/2012\/124861","article-title":"The relationship between tuberculosis and influenza death during the influenza (H1N1) pandemic from 1918-19","volume":"2012","author":"Oei","year":"2012","journal-title":"Comput Math Methods Med"},{"key":"ref37","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"486","DOI":"10.4103\/ijmy.ijmy_188_23","article-title":"Age-period-cohort analysis on tuberculosis cases in Japan, 1953-2022","volume":"12","author":"Ota","year":"2023","journal-title":"Int J Mycobacteriol"},{"key":"ref38","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"5607","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph18115607","article-title":"Temporal trends in notification and mortality of tuberculosis in China, 2004-2019: A Joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysis","volume":"18","author":"Wang","year":"2021","journal-title":"Int J Environ Res Public Health"},{"key":"ref39","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"9","DOI":"10.2196\/48015","article-title":"Trends and projection of the incidence of active pulmonary tuberculosis in southwestern China: age-period-cohort analysis","volume":"9","author":"Chen","year":"2023","journal-title":"JMIR Public Health Surveill"},{"key":"ref40","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"312","DOI":"10.1136\/thx.2007.082354","article-title":"Age-period-cohort analysis of tuberculosis notifications in Hong Kong from 1961 to 2005","volume":"63","author":"Wu","year":"2008","journal-title":"Thorax"},{"key":"ref41","volume-title":"Application of age-period-cohort model in some chronic infectious diseases","author":"Ji","year":"2021"},{"key":"ref42","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1309","DOI":"10.7655\/NYDXBNS20220918","article-title":"Trend analysis of tuberculosis incidence and mortality in Jiangsu Province from 2005 to 2020","volume":"42","author":"Zhang","year":"2022","journal-title":"J Nanjing Med Univ"},{"key":"ref43","volume-title":"Study on the trend of the incidence and mortality and control policies of tuberculosis in China from 1990 to 2019","author":"Li","year":"2023"},{"key":"ref44","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1181","DOI":"10.3346\/jkms.2016.31.8.1181","article-title":"Forecasting cause-specific mortality in Korea up to year 2032","volume":"31","author":"Yun","year":"2016","journal-title":"J Korean Med Sci"},{"key":"ref45","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"375","DOI":"10.1186\/s12890-021-01740-y","article-title":"Trends in incidence and mortality of tuberculosis in India over past three decades: a joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysis. Bmc","volume":"21","author":"Dhamnetiya","year":"2021","journal-title":"Pulmonary Med"},{"key":"ref46","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1275","DOI":"10.16462\/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2022.11.007","article-title":"Trend of tuberculosis incidence in China from 1990 to 2019 based on the age\u2043period\u2043cohort model","volume":"26","author":"Jiang","year":"2022","journal-title":"Chin J Dis Control Prev"},{"key":"ref47","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"881","DOI":"10.16506\/j.1009-6639.2022.12.001","article-title":"Incidence trend and age-period-cohort analysis of pulmonary tuberculosis in China from 1990 to 2019","volume":"23","author":"Salawati","year":"2022","journal-title":"Chin Prev Med"},{"key":"ref48","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"9","DOI":"10.3389\/fmed.2022.810382","article-title":"Changing epidemiology of TB in Shandong, China driven by demographic changes","volume":"9","author":"Lin","year":"2022","journal-title":"Front Med"},{"key":"ref49","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"S226-S","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/163.suppl_11.S226-b","article-title":"Wade Hampton frost updated: age-period-cohort analysis of TB incidence rates in the United States","volume":"163","author":"Courval","year":"2006","journal-title":"Am J Epidemiol"},{"key":"ref50","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"715","DOI":"10.1111\/rssa.12433","article-title":"A practical guide to age\u2013period\u2013cohort analysis: the identification problem and beyond","volume":"182","author":"Aalabaf-Sabaghi","year":"2019","journal-title":"J R Statist Soc Series A"},{"key":"ref51","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"123","DOI":"10.1006\/ssre.1999.0656","article-title":"Age period cohort characteristic models","volume":"29","author":"O'Brien","year":"2000","journal-title":"Soc Sci Res"},{"key":"ref52","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"311","DOI":"10.2307\/2531004","article-title":"The estimation of age, period and cohort effects for vital rates","volume":"39","author":"Holford","year":"1983","journal-title":"Biometrics"},{"key":"ref53","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1945","DOI":"10.1007\/s13524-013-0243-z","article-title":"Assessing validity and application scope of the intrinsic estimator approach to the age-period-cohort problem","volume":"50","author":"Luo","year":"2013","journal-title":"Demography"}],"container-title":["Frontiers in Public Health"],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/articles\/10.3389\/fpubh.2025.1486946\/full","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,29]],"date-time":"2025-01-29T07:00:28Z","timestamp":1738134028000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/articles\/10.3389\/fpubh.2025.1486946\/full"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,29]]},"references-count":53,"alternative-id":["10.3389\/fpubh.2025.1486946"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/fpubh.2025.1486946","relation":{},"ISSN":["2296-2565"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2296-2565","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,29]]},"article-number":"1486946"}}