{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,25]],"date-time":"2026-09-25T21:10:07Z","timestamp":1790370607093,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":50,"publisher":"Frontiers Media SA","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,9]],"date-time":"2025-04-09T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1744156800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["frontiersin.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Front. Public Health"],"abstract":"<jats:sec><jats:title>Background<\/jats:title><jats:p>Lower extremity peripheral arterial disease (LEPAD) significantly affects quality of life and is associated with severe cardiovascular risks. Studies on its long-term incidence trends are limited.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Objective<\/jats:title><jats:p>This study aims to analyze global trends in LEPAD incidence from 1990 to 2021 using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database and to forecast future trends between 2022 and 2030, providing insights for healthcare planning and resource allocation.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>Data were extracted from the GBD 2021 database by genders, age groups, continents, and sociodemographic index (SDI) levels. Using Joinpoint regression analysis, annual percentage changes (APC) and average annual percentage changes (AAPC) were calculated to assess age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) historical trends. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was applied to predict ASIR between 2022 and 2030.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>The global ASIR of LEPAD showed a slight decrease from 1990 to 2021, though regional differences were notable. In 2021, the highest ASIR was in the Americas, while Africa had the lowest. Gender and age disparities were significant, and females and older populations were at higher risk. ARIMA predictions indicate a stable ASIR trend from 2025 onward.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title><jats:p>This study provides a comprehensive analysis of LEPAD incidence trends and a forecast through 2030. While global incidence may stabilize, the rising burden in lower-income countries calls for prioritizing early intervention and health education in high-risk regions. These findings emphasize the importance of targeted resource allocation and strategic prevention efforts.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2025.1521927","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,9]],"date-time":"2025-04-09T05:22:35Z","timestamp":1744176155000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["Trends in lower extremity peripheral arterial disease incidence since 1990 and forecasting future statistics using Global Burden of Disease 2021: a time-series analysis"],"prefix":"10.3389","volume":"13","author":[{"given":"Jiacheng","family":"Li","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Chengxin","family":"Weng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Tiehao","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Wei","family":"Lu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Lihong","family":"Lin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jiawen","family":"Wu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Guobing","family":"Cheng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Qiang","family":"Hu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yi","family":"Guo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1965","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,9]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref1","article-title":"Lower extremity peripheral arterial disease - level 3 cause","year":""},{"key":"ref2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1161\/circ.149.suppl_1.p211","article-title":"Abstract P211: burden and temporal trend of peripheral artery disease in the United States and its attributable risk factors from 1990-2019: an insights from the global burden of disease study 2019","volume":"149","author":"Javier","year":"2024","journal-title":"Circulation"},{"key":"ref3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fcvm.2022.868370","article-title":"Burden of peripheral artery disease and its attributable risk factors in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019","volume":"9","author":"Lin","year":"2022","journal-title":"Front Cardiovasc Med"},{"key":"ref4","first-page":"362","article-title":"Lower extremity peripheral artery disease: diagnosis and treatment","volume":"99","author":"Firnhaber","year":"2019","journal-title":"Am Fam Physician"},{"key":"ref5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fcvm.2022.973592","article-title":"Secular trends in the epidemiologic patterns of peripheral artery disease and risk factors in China from 1990 to 2019: findings from the global burden of disease study 2019","volume":"9","author":"Gong","year":"2022","journal-title":"Front Cardiovasc Med"},{"key":"ref6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/biomedicines11123157","article-title":"Preventive therapies in peripheral arterial disease","volume":"11","author":"Shah","year":"2023","journal-title":"Biomedicines"},{"key":"ref7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2982","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jacc.2020.11.010","article-title":"Global burden of cardiovascular diseases and risk factors, 1990-2019: update from the GBD 2019 study","volume":"76","author":"Roth","year":"2020","journal-title":"J Am Coll Cardiol"},{"key":"ref8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"96","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jpsychires.2020.03.015","article-title":"Trends in the incidence and DALYs of bipolar disorder at global, regional, and national levels: results from the global burden of disease study 2017","volume":"125","author":"He","year":"2020","journal-title":"J Psychiatr Res"},{"key":"ref9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e171","DOI":"10.1161\/CIR.0000000000001005","article-title":"Lower extremity peripheral artery disease: contemporary epidemiology, management gaps, and future directions: a scientific statement from the American Heart Association","volume":"144","author":"Criqui","year":"2021","journal-title":"Circulation"},{"key":"ref10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1204","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(20)30925-9","article-title":"Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2019","volume":"396","year":"2020","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"ref11","article-title":"Harvard School of Public Health (Cambridge M), WHO, IBRD. 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