{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,22]],"date-time":"2026-10-22T15:04:45Z","timestamp":1792681485705,"version":"4.5.0"},"reference-count":54,"publisher":"Frontiers Media SA","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,16]],"date-time":"2025-07-16T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1752624000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["frontiersin.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Front. Public Health"],"abstract":"<jats:sec><jats:title>Background<\/jats:title><jats:p>Bacterial dysentery (BD) is a leading cause of diarrhea-related mortality globally, with its incidence heavily influenced by environmental factors. However, a climate zone-specific predictive model for BD was currently lacking in Sichuan Province.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Objective<\/jats:title><jats:p>This study aims to employ interpretable machine learning to explore the influence of environmental factors on BD incidence across different climate zones and to elucidate their interaction mechanisms.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>Monthly data on meteorological and ecological factors, along with BD case reports, were collected from 183 counties in Sichuan Province (2005\u20132023). The eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm was employed to assess the influence of key environmental features, including precipitation, temperature, PM10, potential evaporation, vegetation cover, and NDVI, on BD incidence. To enhance interpretability, the model\u2019s outputs were visualized and explained using SHapley Additive Explanations (SHAP).<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>A machine learning model was developed to assess the impact of environmental factors on BD incidence across different climate zones. The findings revealed significant spatial heterogeneity in key drivers of BD. In the Central Subtropical Humid Climate Zone, BD incidence was predominantly influenced by average temperature, PM10, and minimum temperature. In the Subtropical Semi-Humid Climate Zone, potential evaporation, PM10, and precipitation emerged as the primary determinants. In the Plateau Cold Climate Zone, PM10, minimum temperature, and precipitation were the most significant factors. Notably, PM10 consistently showed a positive correlation with BD across all climate zones. Furthermore, average temperature showed a positive association with BD in the Central Subtropical Humid Climate Zone, while potential evaporation and minimum temperature demonstrated similar positive relationships in the Subtropical Semi-Humid and Plateau Cold Climate Zones, respectively. Additionally, precipitation displayed a U-shaped relationship with BD risk in both the Subtropical Semi-Humid and Plateau Cold Climate Zones.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title><jats:p>This study developed a climate zone-specific predictive model for BD, systematically evaluating the interactions between environmental factors and BD dynamics. The findings provide a scientific basis for refining targeted public health intervention strategies.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2025.1598247","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,16]],"date-time":"2025-07-16T05:38:17Z","timestamp":1752644297000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":6,"title":["Interpretable machine learning analysis of environmental characteristics on bacillary dysentery in Sichuan Province"],"prefix":"10.3389","volume":"13","author":[{"given":"Yao","family":"Zhang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Qiao-Lin","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Wei","family":"Peng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Meng-Yuan","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yao","family":"Qin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Lun","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Rong-Jie","family":"Wei","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Dian-Ju","family":"Kang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1965","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,16]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"801","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(17)33296-8","article-title":"Shigellosis","volume":"391","author":"Kotloff","year":"2018","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"ref2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"799","DOI":"10.1016\/j.pcl.2017.03.006","article-title":"The burden and etiology of diarrheal illness in developing countries","volume":"64","author":"Kotloff","year":"2017","journal-title":"Pediatr Clin N Am"},{"key":"ref3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"7381","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vaccine.2017.10.011","article-title":"Who consultation on etec and shigella burden of disease, Geneva, 6-7th april 2017: meeting report","volume":"37","author":"Hosangadi","year":"2019","journal-title":"Vaccine"},{"key":"ref4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1229","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(18)30475-4","article-title":"Morbidity and mortality due to shigella and enterotoxigenic escherichia coli diarrhoea: the global burden of disease study 1990-2016","volume":"18","author":"Khalil","year":"2018","journal-title":"Lancet Infect Dis"},{"key":"ref5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"909","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(17)30276-1","article-title":"Estimates of global, regional, and national morbidity, mortality, and aetiologies of diarrhoeal diseases: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2015","volume":"17","author":"Troeger","year":"2017","journal-title":"Lancet Infect Dis"},{"key":"ref6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e107223","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0107223","article-title":"Cholera and shigellosis: different epidemiology but similar responses to climate variability","volume":"9","author":"Cash","year":"2014","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"ref7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"113","DOI":"10.1186\/s40249-017-0325-z","article-title":"Seasonal and geographical distribution of bacillary dysentery (shigellosis) and associated climate risk factors in Kon tam province in Vietnam from 1999 to 2013","volume":"6","author":"Lee","year":"2017","journal-title":"Infect Dis Poverty"},{"key":"ref8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"222","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jinf.2005.02.002","article-title":"The epidemiology of travel-associated shigellosis--regional risks, seasonality and serogroups","volume":"51","author":"Ekdahl","year":"2005","journal-title":"J Infect"},{"key":"ref9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"217","DOI":"10.3390\/nu16183217","article-title":"Global incidence of diarrheal diseases-an update using an interpretable predictive model based on xgboost and shap: a systematic analysis","volume":"16","author":"Liang","year":"2024","journal-title":"Nutrients"},{"key":"ref10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"136702","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2020.136702","article-title":"Impact of climate change on dysentery: scientific evidences, uncertainty, modeling and projections","volume":"714","author":"Wu","year":"2020","journal-title":"Sci Total Environ"},{"key":"ref11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"161","DOI":"10.1016\/j.idm.2022.05.003","article-title":"Shigellosis seasonality and transmission characteristics in different areas of China: a modelling study","volume":"7","author":"Zhao","year":"2022","journal-title":"Infect Dis Model"},{"key":"ref12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"57008","DOI":"10.1289\/EHP5779","article-title":"Daily temperature and bacillary dysentery: estimated effects, attributable risks, and future disease burden in 316 chinese cities","volume":"128","author":"Liu","year":"2020","journal-title":"Environ Health Perspect"},{"key":"ref13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"13","DOI":"10.1265\/ehpm.21-00005","article-title":"Effects of daily mean temperature and other meteorological variables on bacillary dysentery in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China","volume":"27","author":"Chang","year":"2022","journal-title":"Environ Health Prev Med"},{"key":"ref14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"45","DOI":"10.1186\/s41256-024-00389-4","article-title":"El ni\u00f1o southern oscillation, weather patterns, and bacillary dysentery in the yangtze river basin, China","volume":"9","author":"Li","year":"2024","journal-title":"Glob Health Res Policy"},{"key":"ref15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"144244","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2020.144244","article-title":"Changes in precipitation extremes in the yangtze river basin during 1960-2019 and the association with global warming, enso, and local effects","volume":"760","author":"Li","year":"2021","journal-title":"Sci Total Environ"},{"key":"ref16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"157520","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2022.157520","article-title":"The impact of heavy precipitation and its impact modifiers on shigellosis occurrence during typhoon season in Taiwan: a case-crossover design","volume":"848","author":"Chen","year":"2022","journal-title":"Sci Total Environ"},{"key":"ref17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"359","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envres.2018.12.067","article-title":"Identifying different types of flood-sensitive diarrheal diseases from 2006 to 2010 in Guangxi, China","volume":"170","author":"Liu","year":"2019","journal-title":"Environ Res"},{"key":"ref18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e31250","DOI":"10.1016\/j.heliyon.2024.e31250","article-title":"The effect of temperature on infectious diarrhea disease: a systematic review","volume":"10","author":"Zhang","year":"2024","journal-title":"Heliyon"},{"key":"ref19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"64035","DOI":"10.1088\/1748-9326\/abff88","article-title":"Forests moderate the effectiveness of water treatment at reducing childhood diarrhea","volume":"16","author":"Rasolofoson","year":"2021","journal-title":"Environ Res Lett"},{"key":"ref20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"382","DOI":"10.1590\/0037-8682-0144-2013","article-title":"Temperature and atmospheric pressure may be considered as predictors for the occurrence of bacillary dysentery in Guangzhou, southern China","volume":"47","author":"Li","year":"2014","journal-title":"Rev Soc Bras Med Trop"},{"key":"ref21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"164","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph13020164","article-title":"Patterns of bacillary dysentery in China, 2005-2010","volume":"13","author":"Zhang","year":"2016","journal-title":"Int J Environ Res Public Health"},{"key":"ref22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"956","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2016.09.153","article-title":"Identification of weather variables sensitive to dysentery in disease-affected county of China","volume":"575","author":"Liu","year":"2017","journal-title":"Sci Total Environ"},{"key":"ref23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"33","DOI":"10.1093\/trstmh\/trae064","article-title":"Lagged effects of climate factors on bacillary dysentery in western China","volume":"119","author":"Li","year":"2025","journal-title":"Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg"},{"key":"ref24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"906248","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2022.906248","article-title":"Spatial epidemiology of acute respiratory infections in children under 5 years and associated risk factors in India: district-level analysis of health, household, and environmental datasets","volume":"10","author":"Balasubramani","year":"2022","journal-title":"Front Public Health"},{"key":"ref25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e38168","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0038168","article-title":"Seasonality of rotavirus in south asia: a meta-analysis approach assessing associations with temperature, precipitation, and vegetation index","volume":"7","author":"Jagai","year":"2012","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"ref26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"100439","DOI":"10.1016\/j.onehlt.2022.100439","article-title":"Predicting infectious disease for biopreparedness and response: a systematic review of machine learning and deep learning approaches","volume":"15","author":"Keshavamurthy","year":"2022","journal-title":"One Health"},{"key":"ref27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"27968","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-024-76847-3","article-title":"Prediction of acute respiratory infections using machine learning techniques in Amhara region, Ethiopia","volume":"14","author":"Kassaw","year":"2024","journal-title":"Sci Rep"},{"key":"ref28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e56685","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjopen-2021-056685","article-title":"Application of a data-driven xgboost model for the prediction of covid-19 in the USA: a time-series study","volume":"12","author":"Fang","year":"2022","journal-title":"BMJ Open"},{"key":"ref29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1472050","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2025.1472050","article-title":"Identifying major depressive disorder among us adults living alone using stacked ensemble machine learning algorithms","volume":"13","author":"Chen","year":"2025","journal-title":"Front Public Health"},{"key":"ref30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e803","DOI":"10.7717\/peerj-cs.803","article-title":"Utilizing grid search cross-validation with adaptive boosting for augmenting performance of machine learning models","volume":"8","author":"Adnan","year":"2022","journal-title":"PeerJ Comput Sci"},{"key":"ref31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"119782","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envpol.2022.119782","article-title":"Long-term trends of atmospheric hot-and-polluted episodes (hpe) and the public health implications in the Pearl River Delta region of China","volume":"311","author":"Nduka","year":"2022","journal-title":"Environ Pollut"},{"key":"ref32","volume-title":"China Statistics Press","year":"2023"},{"key":"ref33","volume-title":"1-km monthly precipitation dataset for China (1901\u20132023)","author":"Peng","year":"2024"},{"key":"ref34","article-title":"ChinaHighPM2.5: High-resolution and High-quality Ground-level PM2.5 Dataset for China (2000-2023)","volume-title":"National Tibetan Plateau Data Center","author":"Wei","year":"2024"},{"key":"ref35","volume-title":"China regional 250m fractional vegetation cover data set (2000-2023)National Tibetan Plateau Data Center","author":"Gao","year":"2024"},{"key":"ref36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e93","DOI":"10.1002\/cpmc.93","article-title":"Laboratory cultivation and storage of shigella","volume":"55","author":"Payne","year":"2019","journal-title":"Curr Protoc Microbiol"},{"key":"ref37","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"443","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268804001992","article-title":"The effect of temperature on food poisoning: a time-series analysis of salmonellosis in ten european countries","volume":"132","author":"Kovats","year":"2004","journal-title":"Epidemiol Infect"},{"key":"ref38","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"344","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kwt279","article-title":"Heavy rainfall events and diarrhea incidence: the role of social and environmental factors","volume":"179","author":"Carlton","year":"2014","journal-title":"Am J Epidemiol"},{"key":"ref39","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"812","DOI":"10.3201\/eid0705.017507","article-title":"Factors contributing to the emergence of Escherichia coli O157 in Africa","volume":"7","author":"Effler","year":"2001","journal-title":"Emerg Infect Dis"},{"key":"ref40","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.2166\/wh.2009.143","article-title":"Rainfall and outbreaks of drinking water related disease and in England and wales","volume":"7","author":"Nichols","year":"2009","journal-title":"J Water Health"},{"key":"ref41","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"518","DOI":"10.11150\/kansenshogakuzasshi1970.74.518","article-title":"Outbreak of cryptosporidiosis after contamination of the public water supply in Saitama prefecture, Japan, in 1996","volume":"74","author":"Yamamoto","year":"2000","journal-title":"Kansenshogaku Zasshi"},{"key":"ref42","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"314","DOI":"10.1016\/j.soilbio.2015.06.002","article-title":"Prolonged drought changes the bacterial growth response to rewetting","volume":"88","author":"Meisner","year":"2015","journal-title":"Soil Biol Biochem"},{"key":"ref43","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"19124","DOI":"10.1038\/srep19124","article-title":"Multi-decadal trends in global terrestrial evapotranspiration and its components","volume":"6","author":"Zhang","year":"2016","journal-title":"Sci Rep"},{"key":"ref44","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"654","DOI":"10.3390\/atmos12050654","article-title":"Potential human and plant pathogenic species in airborne pm10 samples and relationships with chemical components and meteorological parameters","volume":"12","author":"Romano","year":"2021","journal-title":"Atmosphere"},{"key":"ref45","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"919","DOI":"10.3390\/atmos11090919","article-title":"A review on airborne microbes: the characteristics of sources, pathogenicity and geography","volume":"11","author":"Chen","year":"2020","journal-title":"Atmosphere"},{"key":"ref46","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1129","DOI":"10.1097\/MIB.0000000000000066","article-title":"Exposure to ingested airborne pollutant particulate matter increases mucosal exposure to bacteria and induces early onset of inflammation in neonatal il-10-deficient mice","volume":"20","author":"Salim","year":"2014","journal-title":"Inflamm Bowel Dis"},{"key":"ref47","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1435030","DOI":"10.3389\/fmed.2025.1435030","article-title":"Targeting gut microbiota dysbiosis in inflammatory bowel disease: a systematic review of current evidence","volume":"12","author":"Farah","year":"2025","journal-title":"Front Med"},{"key":"ref48","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"100150","DOI":"10.1016\/j.crsus.2024.100150","article-title":"Greenspace and burden of infectious illnesses among children in 49 low- and middle-income countries","volume":"1","author":"Zhang","year":"2024","journal-title":"Cell Rep Sustain"},{"key":"ref49","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e180","DOI":"10.1016\/S2542-5196(17)30081-5","article-title":"Empirical evidence of the public health benefits of tropical forest conservation in Cambodia: a generalised linear mixed-effects model analysis","volume":"1","author":"Pienkowski","year":"2017","journal-title":"Lancet Planet Health"},{"key":"ref50","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"261","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1752-1688.2010.00419.x","article-title":"The role of riparian vegetation in protecting and improving chemical water quality in streams","volume":"46","author":"Dosskey","year":"2010","journal-title":"JAWRA J Am Water Resourc Assoc"},{"key":"ref51","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"37","DOI":"10.1016\/j.landurbplan.2015.12.004","article-title":"Contribution of trees and grasslands to the mitigation of human heat stress in a residential district of Freiburg, Southwest Germany","volume":"148","author":"Lee","year":"2016","journal-title":"Landsc Urban Plann"},{"key":"ref52","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"304","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envint.2018.08.012","article-title":"Influences of heatwave, rainfall, and tree cover on cholera in Bangladesh","volume":"120","author":"Wu","year":"2018","journal-title":"Environ Int"},{"key":"ref53","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1919","DOI":"10.1007\/s00484-021-02148-3","article-title":"Spatial heterogeneity of bacillary dysentery and the impact of temperature in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China","volume":"65","author":"Wang","year":"2021","journal-title":"Int J Biometeorol"},{"key":"ref54","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"130","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2334-8-130","article-title":"Investigating the effects of climate variations on bacillary dysentery incidence in Northeast China using ridge regression and hierarchical cluster analysis","volume":"8","author":"Huang","year":"2008","journal-title":"BMC Infect Dis"}],"container-title":["Frontiers in Public Health"],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/articles\/10.3389\/fpubh.2025.1598247\/full","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,16]],"date-time":"2025-07-16T05:38:19Z","timestamp":1752644299000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/articles\/10.3389\/fpubh.2025.1598247\/full"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,16]]},"references-count":54,"alternative-id":["10.3389\/fpubh.2025.1598247"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/fpubh.2025.1598247","relation":{},"ISSN":["2296-2565"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2296-2565","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,16]]},"article-number":"1598247"}}