{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,28]],"date-time":"2026-08-28T23:46:44Z","timestamp":1787960804233,"version":"build-2784847793"},"reference-count":34,"publisher":"Frontiers Media SA","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,5,29]],"date-time":"2025-05-29T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1748476800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["frontiersin.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Front. Public Health"],"abstract":"<jats:sec><jats:title>Background<\/jats:title><jats:p>The global population aging trend has intensified concerns regarding pancreatic cancer (PC), a leading cause of cancer-related mortality with a 5-year survival rate of 13%. This study evaluates the global burden, temporal trends, and socioeconomic disparities of PC among individuals aged \u226555\u202fyears using the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>Age-standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were analyzed across 204 countries. Joinpoint regression identified temporal trends (1990\u20132021), while Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) modeling projected future burden. Socioeconomic disparities were assessed via the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), and risk factor contributions were quantified using decomposition analysis.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>In 2021, Finland, Germany, and Japan exhibited the highest age-standardized PC prevalence (ASPR: 64.42\u201366.17 per 100,000 population), contrasting sharply with Mozambique (ASPR: 2.85 per 100,000 population). Mortality peaked in Greenland (age-standardized death rate, ASDR: 81.85 per 100,000 population) and Monaco (ASDR: 71.75 per 100,000 population). Males showed elevated burden across incidence, prevalence, and mortality (peak age: 70\u201374\u202fyears), with global trends persistently rising (average annual percentage change, AAPC &amp;gt;0, 1990\u20132021). China experienced a transient mortality decline (AAPC\u202f=\u202f\u22120.93, 2011\u20132015), linked to healthcare reforms. High SDI regions (e.g., Japan) faced amplified burdens driven by aging and metabolic risks, while smoking (15.4\u201328.5% of deaths and years lived with disability, YLDs) and hyperglycemia (37.8% of YLDs in the U.S.) dominated modifiable risks. Projections diverge significantly: China\u2019s age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) burden is projected to increase from 27.96 (95% uncertainty interval, UI: 25.76, 30.16) in 2022 to 36.94 (UI: 0, 79.46) by 2045. In contrast, the global ASIR is expected to decline from 31.07 (UI: 30.06, 32.08) to 27.11 (UI: 8.73, 45.57).<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title><jats:p>Persistent socioeconomic and gender disparities underscore the need for targeted interventions, including tobacco control, glycemic management, and lifestyle modifications. Prioritizing aging populations in high-SDI regions and addressing underreported risks in low-SDI areas are critical for mitigating the growing PC burden.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2025.1600635","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,5,29]],"date-time":"2025-05-29T05:25:40Z","timestamp":1748496340000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["Divergent trajectories in pancreatic cancer burden among older adults (55+): a GBD 2021 analysis revealing China\u2019s dual epidemic of aging and population growth (1990\u20132045)"],"prefix":"10.3389","volume":"13","author":[{"given":"Hui","family":"Dong","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Heng","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Wenping","family":"Han","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Haigang","family":"Niu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1965","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,5,29]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"10","DOI":"10.3322\/caac.21871","article-title":"Cancer statistics, 2025","volume":"75","author":"Siegel","year":"2025","journal-title":"CA Cancer J Clin"},{"key":"ref2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"386","DOI":"10.1053\/j.gastro.2022.03.056","article-title":"e1.Pancreatic Cancer: 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