{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,24]],"date-time":"2026-09-24T01:45:28Z","timestamp":1790214328002,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":17,"publisher":"Frontiers Media SA","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,29]],"date-time":"2025-08-29T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1756425600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["frontiersin.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Front. Public Health"],"abstract":"<jats:p>This study analyzes prevalence growth rates across regions using UNAIDS data and statistical modeling to forecast trends through 2050. Globally, the 95\u201395\u201395 targets are projected to be achieved by 2035, 2034, and 2025, respectively, largely due to the success of robust interventions in Eastern and Southern Africa. While some progress has also been made in other regions, including improvements in treatment coverage and testing uptake in parts of Latin America and Asia, significant gaps remain, with a continued high burden and sustained accumulation of new infections in certain countries, where persistent transmission and limited treatment coverage reveal stark disparities. These regional crises challenge the framework\u2019s global applicability, suggesting Africa\u2019s progress cannot be extrapolated universally. Relying solely on the 95\u201395\u201395 framework risks creating an illusory sense of achieving an \u201cendgame\u201d without tailored strategies that address diverse epidemiological contexts. This study used a random forest model analyzing feature correlations with HIV growth. The new infection is most strongly correlated, while the first 95 target is also highly correlated, indicating that prevention and high testing significantly reduce the growth rate. The LGBT score and urban population are positively correlated, although unmeasured confounders (e.g., disparities in testing access) may contribute to this association or reflect underlying social network density. The third 95 target displays weaker correlations, showing that HIV growth is driven by those who have not been tested. Prevention efforts should prioritize encouraging untested individuals in urban LGBT populations to undergo testing, underscoring the need for targeted initiatives alongside broader structural interventions.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2025.1602711","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,29]],"date-time":"2025-08-29T05:45:53Z","timestamp":1756446353000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4,"title":["The statistical illusion of a global HIV endgame: disparities in regional progress toward 95\u201395\u201395 targets"],"prefix":"10.3389","volume":"13","author":[{"given":"Shaoming","family":"Chen","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1965","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,29]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1662685","DOI":"10.1080\/16549716.2019.1662685","article-title":"Demographic change and HIV epidemic projections to 2050 for adolescents and young people aged 15\u201324","volume":"12","author":"Khalifa","year":"2019","journal-title":"Glob Health Action"},{"key":"ref2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"320","DOI":"10.1186\/s12879-018-3214-6","article-title":"Trend of HIV\/AIDS for the last 26 years and predicting achievement of the 90\u201390\u201390 HIV prevention targets by 2020 in Ethiopia: a time series analysis","volume":"18","author":"Girum","year":"2018","journal-title":"BMC Infect Dis"},{"key":"ref3","volume-title":"HIV estimates with uncertainty bounds, 1990\u2013present","year":"2025"},{"key":"ref4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e1003831","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1003831","article-title":"Modeling the epidemiological impact of the UNAIDS 2025 targets to end AIDS as a public health threat by 2030","volume":"18","author":"Stover","year":"2021","journal-title":"PLoS Med"},{"key":"ref5","volume-title":"Reducing stigma in health-care settings and reforming the law: a double hurdle in western and Central Africa","year":"2025"},{"key":"ref6","volume-title":"Map of jurisdictions that criminalise LGBT people","year":"2025"},{"key":"ref7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.25080\/Majora-92bf1922-00a","article-title":"Pandas: a foundational Python library for data analysis and statistics","volume":"14","author":"McKinney","year":"2011","journal-title":"Python High Perform Sci Comp"},{"key":"ref8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"357","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586-020-2649-2","article-title":"Array programming with NumPy","volume":"585","author":"Harris","year":"2020","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"ref9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"261","DOI":"10.1038\/s41592-019-0686-2","article-title":"SciPy 1.0: fundamental algorithms for scientific computing in Python","volume":"17","author":"Virtanen","year":"2020","journal-title":"Nat Methods"},{"key":"ref10","first-page":"2825","article-title":"Scikit-learn: machine learning in Python","volume":"12","author":"Pedregosa","year":"2011","journal-title":"J Mach Learn Res"},{"key":"ref11","volume-title":"LGBT rights by country and travel guide","year":"2025"},{"key":"ref12","volume-title":"The journey towards comprehensive sexuality education: global status report","year":"2021"},{"key":"ref13","volume-title":"Urban population","year":"2025"},{"key":"ref14","volume-title":"HIV financial dashboard: GARPR 16- GAM 2025 dataset","year":"2025"},{"key":"ref15","first-page":"18","article-title":"Classification and regression by randomForest","volume":"2","author":"Liaw","year":"2002","journal-title":"R Dent News"},{"key":"ref16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"198","DOI":"10.1016\/s0140-6736(16)30781-4","article-title":"The global response to HIV in men who have sex with men","volume":"388","author":"Beyrer","year":"2016","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"ref17","volume-title":"State-sponsored homophobia report","author":"Mendos","year":"2020"}],"container-title":["Frontiers in Public Health"],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/articles\/10.3389\/fpubh.2025.1602711\/full","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,29]],"date-time":"2025-08-29T05:45:55Z","timestamp":1756446355000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/articles\/10.3389\/fpubh.2025.1602711\/full"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,29]]},"references-count":17,"alternative-id":["10.3389\/fpubh.2025.1602711"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/fpubh.2025.1602711","relation":{},"ISSN":["2296-2565"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2296-2565","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,29]]},"article-number":"1602711"}}