{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,10]],"date-time":"2026-09-10T02:26:49Z","timestamp":1789007209283,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":45,"publisher":"Frontiers Media SA","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,22]],"date-time":"2025-07-22T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1753142400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["frontiersin.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Front. Public Health"],"abstract":"<jats:sec><jats:title>Background<\/jats:title><jats:p>As one of the most aging populations in the world, China has experienced a continuous increase in the disease burden of Alzheimer\u2019s Disease (AD) and other dementia (ADRD). This study aims to analyze the trends in prevalence and mortality rates of AD and related dementia in China from 1990 to 2021 and to predict the disease burden by 2040.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>Data was extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021). Joinpoint regression was used to identify significant changes in trends, while Age\u2013Period\u2013Cohort (APC) models were applied to disentangle age, period, and cohort effects. Bayesian Age\u2013Period\u2013Cohort (BAPC) modeling was used for future projections. In addition, we conducted a risk factor analysis of AD-related mortality attributable to smoking, high body mass index (BMI), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG).<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>In 2021, the age-standardized prevalence of AD and other dementia in China was 1,194 per 100,000 (95% CI: 1018\u20131,383), and the mortality rate was 35 per 100,000 (95% CI: 9\u201393). The disease burden was significantly higher in females compared to males (prevalence: females 1,559 per 100,000 vs. males 846 per 100,000). Joinpoint analysis showed a significant increase in both prevalence and mortality rates after 2019 (male APC\u202f=\u202f2.81%, female APC\u202f=\u202f3.76%). Risk factor analysis highlighted obesity (AAPC\u202f=\u202f9.87%) as the leading contributor to AD mortality in China, surpassing global averages. The BAPC model predicted that by 2040, the prevalence in females would increase to 1,180 per 100,000, while the mortality rate for males would stabilize at 17.6 per 100,000. Our results indicate a substantial increase in disease burden, underscoring the urgent need for strategic interventions and resource allocation to mitigate the future impact of dementia-related conditions in China.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title><jats:p>The disease burden of AD and related dementia in China continues to rise, necessitating enhanced early screening, optimized healthcare resource allocation, and targeted intervention strategies for high-risk female populations.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2025.1616232","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,22]],"date-time":"2025-07-22T13:30:42Z","timestamp":1753191042000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":10,"title":["Trends and forecasts of the prevalence and mortality of Alzheimer\u2019s disease and other dementias in China"],"prefix":"10.3389","volume":"13","author":[{"given":"Mingxuan","family":"Hou","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ling","family":"Yang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1965","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,22]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref1","first-page":"231","article-title":"Alzheimer's disease.","volume-title":"Handb Clin Neurol","author":"Soria Lopez","year":"2019"},{"key":"ref2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"F1000 Faculty Rev-1161","DOI":"10.12688\/f1000research.14506.1","article-title":"Current understanding of Alzheimer\u2019s disease diagnosis and treatment","volume":"7","author":"Weller","year":"2018","journal-title":"F1000Res"},{"key":"ref3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fnagi.2022.937486","article-title":"Global, regional, and national burden of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, 1990\u20132019","volume":"14","author":"Li","year":"2022","journal-title":"Front Aging Neurosci"},{"key":"ref4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1967","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(22)01546-X","article-title":"The path to healthy ageing in China: a Peking University\u2013lancet commission","volume":"400","author":"Chen","year":"2022","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"ref5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"109","DOI":"10.3233\/jad-2008-15109","article-title":"Economic impact of dementia in developing countries: an evaluation of Alzheimer-type dementia in Shanghai, China","volume":"15","author":"Wang Gang","year":"2008","journal-title":"J Alzheimers Dis"},{"key":"ref6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e0322574","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0322574","article-title":"A systematic analysis for disease burden, risk factors, and trend projection of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias in China and globally","volume":"20","author":"Liu","year":"2025","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"ref7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fneur.2022.1034243","article-title":"Promising candidates from drug clinical trials: implications for clinical treatment of Alzheimer's disease in China","volume":"13","author":"Cao","year":"2022","journal-title":"Front Neurol"},{"key":"ref8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1204","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(20)30925-9","article-title":"Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990\u20132019: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2019","volume":"396","author":"Vos","year":"2020","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"ref9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/15333175211044884","article-title":"Trends in mortality rates for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias over 30 years in China","volume":"36","author":"Bai","year":"2021","journal-title":"Am J Alzheimers Dis Other Dement"},{"key":"ref10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e105","DOI":"10.1016\/S2468-2667(21)00249-8","article-title":"Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: an analysis for the global burden of disease study 2019","volume":"7","author":"Nichols","year":"2022","journal-title":"Lancet Public Health"},{"key":"ref11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2025.1575906","article-title":"A GBD 2021 study of Alzheimer\u2019s disease and other dementias attributable to metabolic risk factors and forecasts to 2045 in China","volume":"13","author":"Zhu","year":"2025","journal-title":"Front Public Health"},{"key":"ref12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"994619","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2022.994619","article-title":"Long-term trends in the burden of inflammatory bowel disease in China over three decades: a joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analysis based on GBD 2019","volume":"10","author":"Zhang","year":"2022","journal-title":"Front Public Health"},{"key":"ref13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e072751","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjopen-2023-072751","article-title":"Age-period-cohort analysis and projection of cancer mortality in Hong Kong, 1998\u20132030","volume":"13","author":"Zhao","year":"2023","journal-title":"BMJ Open"},{"key":"ref14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"375","DOI":"10.1186\/s12890-021-01740-y","article-title":"Trends in incidence and mortality of tuberculosis in India over past three decades: a joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysis","volume":"21","author":"Dhamnetiya","year":"2021","journal-title":"BMC Pulm Med"},{"key":"ref15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3018","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.2764","article-title":"Age\u2013period\u2013cohort models for the Lexis diagram","volume":"26","author":"Carstensen","year":"2007","journal-title":"Stat Med"},{"key":"ref16","first-page":"2025.01.07.24319409","article-title":"Historic trends and future projections of the prevalence of adult excess weight in Scotland, 2003 to 2040: a Bayesian age-period-cohort modelling study","author":"Pauw","year":"2025","journal-title":"medRxiv"},{"key":"ref17","first-page":"1","article-title":"Analysis of the burden of hypertension in the elderly population globally and in China from 1990 to 2021 and prediction of future trends","author":"Zhao","year":"1990","journal-title":"J Peking Union Med College"},{"key":"ref18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"7871","DOI":"10.1002\/alz.14254","article-title":"Temporal trend and attributable risk factors of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias burden in China: findings from the global burden of disease study 2021","volume":"20","author":"Yang","year":"2024","journal-title":"Alzheimers Dement"},{"key":"ref19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/ijph.2023.1605129","article-title":"Mortality of Alzheimer\u2019s disease and other dementias in China: past and future decades","volume":"68","author":"Lv","year":"2023","journal-title":"Int J Public Health"},{"key":"ref20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"219","DOI":"10.16150\/j.1671-2870.2024.03.001","article-title":"China Alzheimer's Disease Report 2024","volume":"23","author":"Wang","year":"2024","journal-title":"Diag Theory Prac"},{"key":"ref21","first-page":"81","article-title":"Analysis and change trend prediction of laryngeal cancer disease burden in China from 1990 to 2021","volume":"38","author":"Lingxiu","year":"2025","journal-title":"J Math Med"},{"key":"ref22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"100122","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tjpad.2025.100122","article-title":"The disease burden, risk factors and future predictions of Alzheimer's disease and other types of dementia in Asia from 1990 to 2021","volume":"12","author":"Guo","year":"2025","journal-title":"J Prev Alzheimers Dis"},{"key":"ref23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"391","DOI":"10.1002\/alz.12068","article-title":"2020 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures","volume":"16","year":"2020","journal-title":"Alzheimers & Dement"},{"key":"ref24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e0126169","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0126169","article-title":"Smoking Is Associated with an Increased Risk of Dementia: A Meta-Analysis of Prospective Cohort Studies with Investigation of Potential Effect Modifiers","volume":"10","author":"Zhong","year":"2015","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"ref25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"111","DOI":"10.31887\/DCNS.2009.11.2\/cqiu","article-title":"Epidemiology of Alzheimer's disease: occurrence, determinants, and strategies toward intervention","volume":"11","author":"Qiu","year":"2009","journal-title":"Dialogues Clin Neurosci"},{"key":"ref26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1961","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(05)66665-2","article-title":"Depression in the elderly","volume":"365","author":"Alexopoulos","year":"2005","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"ref27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"E660","DOI":"10.1016\/S2666-7568(23)00233-7","article-title":"Social disparities and unhealthy lifestyles increase risk of dementia, particularly at a young age","volume":"4","author":"Filippini","year":"2023","journal-title":"Lancet Healthy Longev"},{"key":"ref28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e693","DOI":"10.1016\/S2666-7568(23)00211-8","article-title":"Associations of socioeconomic status and healthy lifestyle with incident early-onset and late-onset dementia: a prospective cohort study","volume":"4","author":"Li","year":"2023","journal-title":"Lancet Healthy Longevity"},{"key":"ref29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"28","DOI":"10.31083\/j.jin2101028","article-title":"Digital dementia in the internet generation: excessive screen time during brain development will increase the risk of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias in adulthood","volume":"21","author":"Manwell","year":"2022","journal-title":"J Integr Neurosci"},{"key":"ref30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1231","DOI":"10.3233\/JAD-220724","article-title":"Could country-level factors explain sex differences in dementia incidence and prevalence? A systematic review and Meta-analysis","volume":"91","author":"Huque","year":"2023","journal-title":"J Alzheimers Dis"},{"key":"ref31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"206","DOI":"10.1159\/000530593","article-title":"Trends in prevalence and disability-adjusted life-years of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias in China from 1990 to 2019","volume":"57","author":"Zhu","year":"2023","journal-title":"Neuroepidemiology"},{"key":"ref32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1208","DOI":"10.1016\/j.neuron.2024.01.024","article-title":"Mechanisms of sex differences in Alzheimer\u2019s disease","volume":"112","author":"Lopez-Lee","year":"2024","journal-title":"Neuron"},{"key":"ref33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"926","DOI":"10.1016\/S2213-8587(23)00224-3","article-title":"Sex steroids and the female brain across the lifespan: insights into risk of depression and Alzheimer's disease","volume":"11","author":"Barth","year":"2023","journal-title":"Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol"},{"key":"ref34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"197","DOI":"10.1080\/13607863.2018.1544213","article-title":"WHO's global action plan on the public health response to dementia: some challenges and opportunities","volume":"24","author":"Cahill","year":"2020","journal-title":"Aging Ment Health"},{"key":"ref35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12877-018-0920-2","article-title":"Retrospective assessment of patient characteristics and healthcare costs prior to a diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease in an administrative claims database","author":"Nair","year":"2018","journal-title":"BMC Geriatr"},{"key":"ref36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"898","DOI":"10.1177\/07334648221142851","article-title":"Association of Race and Income with incident diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias among black and white older adults","volume":"42","author":"Keohane","year":"2023","journal-title":"J Appl Gerontol"},{"key":"ref37","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.f7051","article-title":"Effect of socioeconomic disparities on incidence of dementia among biracial older adults: prospective study","volume":"347","author":"Yaffe","year":"2013","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"key":"ref38","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"4100","DOI":"10.3390\/jcm13144100","article-title":"Charting Alzheimer\u2019s disease and dementia: epidemiological insights, risk factors and prevention pathways","volume":"13","author":"Contador","year":"2024","journal-title":"J Clin Med"},{"key":"ref39","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3422","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph18073422","article-title":"The integration of psychosocial care into National Dementia Strategies across Europe: evidence from the skills in DEmentia care (SiDECar) project","volume":"18","author":"Chirico","year":"2021","journal-title":"Int J Environ Res Public Health"},{"key":"ref40","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"4290","DOI":"10.1002\/alz.13836","article-title":"The 2022 symposium on dementia and brain aging in low- and middle-income countries: highlights on research, diagnosis, care, and impact","volume":"20","author":"Kalaria","year":"2024","journal-title":"Alzheimers Dement"},{"key":"ref41","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e245252","DOI":"10.1001\/jamahealthforum.2024.5252","article-title":"Developing evidence-based health policy for dementia care","volume":"5","author":"Baicker","year":"2024","journal-title":"JAMA Health Forum"},{"key":"ref42","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"789","DOI":"10.1186\/s12877-024-05359-6","article-title":"Economic burden and quality of life of patients with dementia in China: a systematic review and meta-analysis","volume":"24","author":"Xing","year":"2024","journal-title":"BMC Geriatr"},{"key":"ref43","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1646","DOI":"10.1186\/s12913-024-12126-1","article-title":"Why are people with dementia overlooked in long-term care insurance policy in Guangzhou, China?","volume":"24","author":"Ye","year":"2024","journal-title":"BMC Health Serv Res"},{"key":"ref44","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"712","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa2310168","article-title":"Biomarker changes during 20 years preceding Alzheimer\u2019s disease","volume":"390","author":"Jia","year":"2024","journal-title":"N Engl J Med"},{"key":"ref45","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e100751","DOI":"10.1136\/gpsych-2022-100751","article-title":"The China Alzheimer report 2022","volume":"35","author":"Ren","year":"2022","journal-title":"Gen Psychiatr"}],"container-title":["Frontiers in Public Health"],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/articles\/10.3389\/fpubh.2025.1616232\/full","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,22]],"date-time":"2025-07-22T13:30:44Z","timestamp":1753191044000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/articles\/10.3389\/fpubh.2025.1616232\/full"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,22]]},"references-count":45,"alternative-id":["10.3389\/fpubh.2025.1616232"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/fpubh.2025.1616232","relation":{},"ISSN":["2296-2565"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2296-2565","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,22]]},"article-number":"1616232"}}