{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,6]],"date-time":"2026-05-06T03:36:48Z","timestamp":1778038608739,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":49,"publisher":"Frontiers Media SA","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,10]],"date-time":"2025-12-10T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1765324800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["frontiersin.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Front. Public Health"],"abstract":"<jats:p>This study investigates the evolving intersection of social vulnerability, climate exposure, and mental health distress in Harris County, Texas, from 2014 to 2022, with projections through 2030. Using census tract-level data and integrating indicators from the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, climate exposure metrics, and mental health outcomes, we developed predictive models to forecast future trends. Results indicate a significant rise in overall social vulnerability\u2014from a score of 8.16 in 2022 to 8.87 by 2030, driven by increasing poverty, extreme heat, flooding, and deteriorating mental health. Mental health distress is projected to escalate from 18.7.0% to 22.7% of the population, underscoring a growing public health burden. The study highlights the compounding risks faced by underserved communities and emphasizes the need for targeted planning, mental health workforce expansion, and adaptive infrastructure strategies. These findings offer critical insights for policymakers and public health officials aiming to mitigate future climate-related health disparities.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2025.1701671","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,10]],"date-time":"2025-12-10T12:01:16Z","timestamp":1765368076000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Intersecting risks: A longitudinal analysis of climate exposure, social vulnerability, and mental health in the Texas Gulf Coast"],"prefix":"10.3389","volume":"13","author":[{"given":"Lulu","family":"Xu","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Omolola E.","family":"Adepoju","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Mary E.","family":"Tipton","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Hanadi","family":"Rifai","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1965","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,10]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1007\/978-94-017-8598-3_2","article-title":"The Impact of Climate Change on Natural Disasters","volume-title":"Reducing Disaster: Early Warning Systems For Climate Change. Springer, Dordrecht","author":"Banholzer","year":"2014"},{"key":"ref2","year":"2020"},{"key":"ref3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"107772","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envint.2023.107772","article-title":"Characterizing vulnerabilities to climate change across the United States","volume":"172","author":"Lewis","year":"2023","journal-title":"Environ Int"},{"key":"ref4","volume-title":"Sustainable communities and the challenge of environmental justice","author":"Agyeman","year":"2005"},{"key":"ref5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1651","DOI":"10.1007\/s10113-017-1105-9","article-title":"Social vulnerability to climate change: a review of concepts and evidence","volume":"17","author":"Otto","year":"2017","journal-title":"Reg Environ Change"},{"key":"ref6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1533117","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2025.1533117","article-title":"Not \"woke\" agendas, basic human rights: reimagining disaster preparedness through Maslow's lens","volume":"13","author":"Adepoju","year":"2025","journal-title":"Front Public Health"},{"key":"ref7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1084","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jaci.2023.09.015","article-title":"Community- and neighborhood-level disparities in extreme climate exposure: implications for asthma and atopic disease outcomes","volume":"152","author":"Burbank","year":"2023","journal-title":"J Allergy Clin Immunol"},{"key":"ref8","volume-title":"Chicago, IL, United States: American Bar Association","author":"Bergeron","year":"2024"},{"key":"ref9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"54","DOI":"10.1021\/acs.estlett.3c00870","article-title":"Historical redlining is associated with disparities in environmental quality across California","volume":"11","author":"Estien","year":"2024","journal-title":"Environ Sci Technol Lett"},{"key":"ref10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"955","DOI":"10.1177\/00333549221148174","article-title":"Examining the optimal placement of cooling Centers to serve populations at high risk of extreme heat exposure in 81 US cities","volume":"138","author":"Adams","year":"2023","journal-title":"Public Health Rep"},{"key":"ref11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"100563","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jth.2019.05.002","article-title":"Accessibility of cooling centers to heat-vulnerable populations in New York state","volume":"14","author":"Nayak","year":"2019","journal-title":"J Transp Health"},{"key":"ref12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"87","DOI":"10.1089\/env.2020.0054","article-title":"Unequal protection revisited: planning for environmental justice, hazard vulnerability, and critical infrastructure in communities of color","volume":"14","author":"Hendricks","year":"2021","journal-title":"Environ Justice"},{"key":"ref13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"5812","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph18115812","article-title":"Climate change, weather, housing precarity, and homelessness: a systematic review of reviews","volume":"18","author":"Bezgrebelna","year":"2021","journal-title":"Int J Environ Res Public Health"},{"key":"ref14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"13","DOI":"10.1089\/env.2009.0035","article-title":"Climate change, environmental justice, and vulnerability: an exploratory spatial analysis","volume":"3","author":"Wilson","year":"2010","journal-title":"Environ Justice"},{"key":"ref15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"123","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ajem.2025.02.038","article-title":"Back-to-back climate shocks and the mental health crisis: a Texas-sized surge in depression and anxiety ER visits","volume":"91","author":"Adepoju","year":"2025","journal-title":"Am J Emerg Med"},{"key":"ref16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"74","DOI":"10.3389\/fpsyt.2020.00074","article-title":"The impact of climate change on mental health: a systematic descriptive review","volume":"11","author":"Cianconi","year":"2020","journal-title":"Front Psych"},{"key":"ref17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"602","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph22040602","article-title":"Extreme weather, vulnerable populations, and mental health: the timely role of AI interventions","volume":"22","author":"Batra","year":"2025","journal-title":"Int J Environ Res Public Health"},{"key":"ref18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e925","DOI":"10.1016\/S2542-5196(23)00216-4","article-title":"Mapping social vulnerability indicators to understand the health impacts of climate change: a scoping review","volume":"7","author":"Li","year":"2023","journal-title":"Lancet Planet Health"},{"key":"ref19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"117","DOI":"10.3238\/arztebl.m2022.0403","article-title":"The effects of climate change on mental health","volume":"120","author":"Walinski","year":"2023","journal-title":"Dtsch Arztebl Int"},{"key":"ref20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"476","DOI":"10.1001\/jamapsychiatry.2017.0303","article-title":"Geographic access to specialty mental health care across high- and low-income US communities","volume":"74","author":"Cummings","year":"2017","journal-title":"JAMA Psychiatry"},{"key":"ref21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"438","DOI":"10.1186\/s12913-022-07829-2","article-title":"A qualitative study of rural healthcare providers' views of social, cultural, and programmatic barriers to healthcare access","volume":"22","author":"Coombs","year":"2022","journal-title":"BMC Health Serv Res"},{"key":"ref22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"463","DOI":"10.1017\/cts.2020.42","article-title":"A call to action to address rural mental health disparities","volume":"4","author":"Morales","year":"2020","journal-title":"J Clin Transl Sci"},{"key":"ref23","article-title":"There's no place like home: reshaping community interventions and policies to eliminate environmental hazards and improve population health for low-income and minority communities","volume":"11","author":"Benfer","year":"2017","journal-title":"Harv L & Pol'y Rev"},{"key":"ref24","year":""},{"key":"ref25","author":"Smith","year":"2020"},{"key":"ref26","volume-title":"Weathering the storm: Houston\u2019s financial preparedness for natural disasters","year":"2025"},{"key":"ref27","year":"2025"},{"key":"ref28","year":"2025"},{"key":"ref29","year":"2024"},{"key":"ref30","year":""},{"key":"ref31","volume-title":"Neighborhood vulnerability and displacement risks in Texas metropolitan regions","year":""},{"key":"ref32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e046333","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjopen-2020-046333","article-title":"Health effects of climate change: an overview of systematic reviews","volume":"11","author":"Rocque","year":"2021","journal-title":"BMJ Open"},{"key":"ref33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1253","DOI":"10.1186\/s12889-023-16097-6","article-title":"Social vulnerability indices: a scoping review","volume":"23","author":"Mah","year":"2023","journal-title":"BMC Public Health"},{"key":"ref34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3","DOI":"10.4103\/0019-5278.156997","article-title":"Mental health effects of climate change","volume":"19","author":"Padhy","year":"2015","journal-title":"Indian J Occup Environ Med"},{"key":"ref35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"58","DOI":"10.1002\/wps.21160","article-title":"The social determinants of mental health and disorder: evidence, prevention and recommendations","volume":"23","author":"Kirkbride","year":"2024","journal-title":"World Psychiatry"},{"key":"ref36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2301","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0710375105","article-title":"Temporal and spatial changes in social vulnerability to natural hazards","volume":"105","author":"Cutter","year":"2008","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci"},{"key":"ref37","volume-title":"Harris County contends with shortage of mental health workers despite landmark state investment.","author":"Brannen","year":"2025"},{"key":"ref38","year":""},{"key":"ref39","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"35","DOI":"10.1007\/s11920-019-1017-0","article-title":"Community interventions to promote mental health and social equity","volume":"21","author":"Castillo","year":"2019","journal-title":"Curr Psychiatry Rep"},{"key":"ref40","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"21501319251332723","DOI":"10.1177\/21501319251332723","article-title":"Community-engaged mental health and wellbeing initiatives in under-resourced settings: a scoping review of primary studies","volume":"16","author":"Chutiyami","year":"2025","journal-title":"J Prim Care Community Health"},{"key":"ref41","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"10","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-244X-2-10","article-title":"Mental health first aid training for the public: evaluation of effects on knowledge, attitudes and helping behavior","volume":"2","author":"Kitchener","year":"2002","journal-title":"BMC Psychiatry"},{"key":"ref42","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1289","DOI":"10.1007\/s00127-019-01738-2","article-title":"Mental health first aid","volume":"60","author":"Keil","year":"2019","journal-title":"Can Vet J"},{"key":"ref43","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"294","DOI":"10.1037\/ser0000901","article-title":"An evaluation of youth mental health first aid training with law enforcement officers","volume":"22","author":"Soderstrom","year":"2025","journal-title":"Psychol Serv"},{"key":"ref44","year":"2024"},{"key":"ref45","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e1003369","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1003369","article-title":"Socioeconomic level and associations between heat exposure and all-cause and cause-specific hospitalization in 1,814 Brazilian cities: a nationwide case-crossover study","volume":"17","author":"Xu","year":"2020","journal-title":"PLoS Med"},{"key":"ref46","year":""},{"key":"ref47","volume-title":"Three emerging and troubling climate trends that show Houston's extreme weather future","author":"Ballard","year":"2025"},{"key":"ref48","year":"2025"},{"key":"ref49","volume-title":"Almost a Quarter of U.S. Population Vulnerable to Rising Heat","author":"Gurrentz","year":"2023"}],"container-title":["Frontiers in Public Health"],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/articles\/10.3389\/fpubh.2025.1701671\/full","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,10]],"date-time":"2025-12-10T12:01:18Z","timestamp":1765368078000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/articles\/10.3389\/fpubh.2025.1701671\/full"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,10]]},"references-count":49,"alternative-id":["10.3389\/fpubh.2025.1701671"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/fpubh.2025.1701671","relation":{},"ISSN":["2296-2565"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2296-2565","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,10]]},"article-number":"1701671"}}