{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,7]],"date-time":"2026-01-07T06:52:40Z","timestamp":1767768760906,"version":"3.48.0"},"reference-count":23,"publisher":"Frontiers Media SA","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,7]],"date-time":"2026-01-07T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1767744000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["frontiersin.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Front. Public Health"],"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Introduction<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>This study evaluates the Strategic Tool for Assessing Risks (STAR), developed by the World Health Organization (WHO), for its effectiveness in predicting public health emergencies across West and Central Africa during the period 2022\u20132024. STAR applies a composite risk scoring system based on four dimensions likelihood, severity, vulnerability, and coping capacity to classify hazards such as measles, cholera, and meningitis into five risk categories ranging from very low to very high.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Using a retrospective observational design, the study integrates quantitative outbreak data with qualitative assessments of preparedness actions across nine countries. The analysis demonstrates that STAR\u2019s predictive accuracy varies significantly by hazard and context.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Meningitis forecasts were consistently accurate, primarily due to the disease\u2019s strong seasonality and well-established epidemiological patterns in the African meningitis belt. In contrast, predictions for measles and cholera were less reliable, influenced by fluctuating immunization coverage, socio-political instability, and environmental factors such as water and sanitation conditions. Case studies illustrate these discrepancies: Burkina Faso\u2019s cholera risk was overestimated, resulting in zero reported cases despite a high-risk classification, while Guinea\u2019s measles outbreak closely matched STAR\u2019s high-risk prediction. The findings also highlight that effective preparedness measures, including vaccination campaigns, hygiene promotion, and cross-border coordination, can mitigate high-risk scenarios, as observed in Gabon and Burkina Faso. Key themes emerging from the analysis include STAR\u2019s strength in forecasting predictable hazards and its limitations due to static inputs and low geographic granularity.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Discussion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>While STAR is not a statistical forecasting model, its participatory, multi-sectoral approach provides strategic value by guiding planning, prioritization, and resource allocation for health emergency preparedness. It enables countries to optimize limited resources, prioritize highrisk hazards (scores 16\u201325), and implement preventive actions. Recommendations for improvement include recalibrating scoring parameters, integrating real-time surveillance and climate data, enhancing seasonality modeling, and increasing geographic resolution. When combined with dynamic data systems and collaborative efforts, STAR remains a critical strategic tool for strengthening regional public health resilience and supporting WHO\u2019s Health Emergency Framework and all-hazards preparedness planning.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2025.1728832","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,7]],"date-time":"2026-01-07T06:49:06Z","timestamp":1767768546000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Assessing the correlation between STAR health risk forecasts with actual health emergencies in West and Central Africa: a three-year analysis"],"prefix":"10.3389","volume":"13","author":[{"given":"Daniel","family":"Yota","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Christian Eric","family":"Massidi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Ambrose","family":"Talisuna","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Omer Njajou","family":"Tchikamgoua","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1965","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,7]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref1","year":"2015"},{"key":"ref2","volume-title":"Health emergency and disaster risk management framework","year":"2019"},{"key":"ref3","volume-title":"Strategic toolkit for assessing risks: A comprehensive toolkit for all-hazards health emergency risk assessment","year":"2021"},{"key":"ref4","volume-title":"Conducting strategic risk assessment for all hazards in countries","year":""},{"key":"ref5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"180085","DOI":"10.1007\/s15010-025-02483-2","article-title":"Predictive models for public health preparedness and response: a critical component of effective public health systems","volume":"6","author":"Ifeanyi","year":"2024","journal-title":"Pharma Sci Anal Res J"},{"key":"ref6","volume-title":"Burkina Faso Humanitarian Situation Report No. 1, The report highlights 5,688 suspected measles cases and 21 deaths by march 2024","year":"2024"},{"key":"ref7","volume-title":"Cholera in the WHO African region: Regional bulletin no. 19","year":"2023"},{"key":"ref8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3395","DOI":"10.1186\/s12889-025-24507-0","article-title":"Understanding cholera dynamics in African countries with persistent outbreaks: a mathematical modeling approach","volume":"25","author":"Ebenezer","year":"2025","journal-title":"BMC Public Health"},{"key":"ref9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"693","DOI":"10.1007\/s15010-025-02483-2","article-title":"Comprehensive analysis of the global burden and epidemiological trends of meningitis from 1990 to 2021","volume":"53","author":"Tang","year":"2025","journal-title":"Infection"},{"key":"ref10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s40996-023-01057-2","article-title":"A new approach to risk analysis: probability\u2013impact\u2013manageability assessment based on chain of risks","author":"Charkhakan","year":"2023","journal-title":"Oper Res"},{"key":"ref11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"152","DOI":"10.1007\/s11538-020-00831-x","article-title":"Disease emergence in multi-patch stochastic epidemic models with demographic and seasonal variability","volume":"82","author":"Nipa","year":"2020","journal-title":"Bull Math Biol"},{"key":"ref12","volume-title":"Strategic tool for assessing the risk write-up","year":"2023"},{"key":"ref13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s12597-024-00848-z","article-title":"Sensitivity, stability and feasibility analysis of epidemic measles using mathematical SEIR 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2024","year":""},{"key":"ref23","volume-title":"Health emergency and disaster risk management framework","year":"2019"}],"container-title":["Frontiers in Public Health"],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/articles\/10.3389\/fpubh.2025.1728832\/full","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,7]],"date-time":"2026-01-07T06:49:08Z","timestamp":1767768548000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/articles\/10.3389\/fpubh.2025.1728832\/full"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,7]]},"references-count":23,"alternative-id":["10.3389\/fpubh.2025.1728832"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/fpubh.2025.1728832","relation":{},"ISSN":["2296-2565"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2296-2565","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,7]]},"article-number":"1728832"}}