{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,3]],"date-time":"2026-09-03T17:10:52Z","timestamp":1788455452887,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":43,"publisher":"Frontiers Media SA","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,8]],"date-time":"2026-04-08T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1775606400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["frontiersin.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Front. Public Health"],"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Objective<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Influenza, a contagious respiratory illness, imposes a substantial global disease burden, underscoring the critical need for timely and accurate surveillance systems. Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models excel in capturing seasonal patterns and trends of infectious diseases. The distinct seasonality of influenza suggests that meteorological factors significantly influence its transmission, though their specific mechanisms remain incompletely characterized. We integrated meteorological variables into a SARIMA model to enhance the prediction of pediatric influenza epidemics, thereby providing a scientific foundation for precise prevention and control strategies.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>We analyzed 67,770 influenza-like illness (ILI) cases from Tianjin Children\u2019s Hospital (June 2018\u2013June 2023) alongside meteorological data (temperature, humidity, precipitation, atmospheric pressure, wind speed, sunshine duration). We characterized influenza epidemiology, employed Spearman correlation and generalized additive models (GAM) to quantify associations between meteorological factors and ILI, and developed SARIMA models to forecast epidemic trends.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      Pediatric influenza in Tianjin demonstrated significant seasonal and spatial heterogeneity, with children under 6\u202fyears comprising &amp;gt;70% of cases. Spearman analysis revealed negative correlations between ILI cases and relative humidity (\n                      <jats:italic>r<\/jats:italic>\n                      \u202f=\u202f\u22120.31), temperature (\n                      <jats:italic>r<\/jats:italic>\n                      \u202f=\u202f\u22120.30), and precipitation (\n                      <jats:italic>r<\/jats:italic>\n                      \u202f=\u202f\u22120.36) (all\n                      <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\n                      \u202f&amp;lt;\u202f0.05), while atmospheric pressure exhibited a positive correlation (\n                      <jats:italic>r<\/jats:italic>\n                      \u202f=\u202f0.34,\n                      <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\n                      \u202f&amp;lt;\u202f0.05). GAM identified relative humidity as the most influential meteorological factor (\n                      <jats:italic>F<\/jats:italic>\n                      \u202f=\u202f2.40,\n                      <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\n                      \u202f=\u202f0.00478). The SARIMA(1,0,0)(0,0,0)\n                      <jats:sub>12<\/jats:sub>\n                      model demonstrated robust performance (\n                      <jats:italic>R<\/jats:italic>\n                      <jats:sup>2<\/jats:sup>\n                      \u202f=\u202f0.632, RMSE\u202f=\u202f27.33).\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Pediatric influenza in Tianjin predominantly affects children under 6\u202fyears, peaks in winter, and clusters in urban centers. Low-temperature and low-humidity conditions\u2212particularly low relative humidity\u2212exacerbate transmission. SARIMA models incorporating meteorological parameters effectively predict influenza incidence, supporting data-driven public health interventions.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2026.1776470","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,8]],"date-time":"2026-04-08T05:33:27Z","timestamp":1775626407000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["Incorporating meteorological factors into a SARIMA model for predicting pediatric influenza epidemics"],"prefix":"10.3389","volume":"14","author":[{"given":"Shiyin","family":"Mu","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Respiratory of Ma-Chang, Children's Hospital, Tianjin University\/Tianjin Children's Hospital","place":["Tianjin, China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ruiwen","family":"Xia","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Clinical School of Paediatrics, Tianjin Medical University","place":["Tianjin, China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jia","family":"Zhai","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Respiratory of Ma-Chang, Children's Hospital, Tianjin University\/Tianjin Children's Hospital","place":["Tianjin, China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yongsheng","family":"Guo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Respiratory of Ma-Chang, Children's Hospital, Tianjin University\/Tianjin Children's Hospital","place":["Tianjin, China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jiao","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Respiratory of Ma-Chang, Children's Hospital, Tianjin University\/Tianjin Children's Hospital","place":["Tianjin, China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mei","family":"Yu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Respiratory of Ma-Chang, Children's Hospital, Tianjin University\/Tianjin Children's Hospital","place":["Tianjin, China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Run","family":"Guo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Respiratory of Ma-Chang, Children's Hospital, Tianjin University\/Tianjin Children's Hospital","place":["Tianjin, China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Xingda","family":"Wen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Respiratory of Ma-Chang, Children's Hospital, Tianjin University\/Tianjin Children's Hospital","place":["Tianjin, China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yingxue","family":"Zou","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Respiratory of Ma-Chang, Children's Hospital, Tianjin University\/Tianjin Children's Hospital","place":["Tianjin, China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Wei","family":"Liu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Children's Hospital, Tianjin University\/Tianjin Children's Hospital","place":["Tianjin, China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1965","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,8]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"45","DOI":"10.1111\/jmwh.13203","article-title":"Influenza and influenza vaccine: a review","volume":"66","author":"Nypaver","year":"2021","journal-title":"J Midwifery Womens Health"},{"key":"ref2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1285","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(17)33293-2","article-title":"Estimates of global seasonal influenza-associated respiratory mortality: a modelling study","volume":"391","author":"Iuliano","year":"2018","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"ref3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1268073","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2023.1268073","article-title":"The role of meteorological factors on influenza incidence among children in Guangzhou China, 2019-2022","volume":"11","author":"Chen","year":"2024","journal-title":"Front Public Health"},{"key":"ref4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"83","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev-virology-012420-022445","article-title":"Seasonality of respiratory viral infections","volume":"7","author":"Moriyama","year":"2020","journal-title":"Annu Rev Virol"},{"key":"ref5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"101037","DOI":"10.1016\/j.onehlt.2025.101037","article-title":"How virus migration and meteorological elements shape the seasonality of influenza a\/H3N2: a case study in China","volume":"20","author":"Liao","year":"2025","journal-title":"One Health"},{"key":"ref6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"84","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jinf.2019.09.013","article-title":"Association between meteorological variations and activities of influenza a and B across different climate zones: a multi-region modelling analysis across the globe","volume":"80","author":"Chong","year":"2020","journal-title":"J Infect"},{"key":"ref7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"54","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2022.11.023","article-title":"Indoor relative humidity shapes influenza seasonality in temperate and subtropical climates in China","volume":"126","author":"Lei","year":"2023","journal-title":"Int J Infect Dis"},{"key":"ref8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"962","DOI":"10.3967\/bes2022.123","article-title":"Association and prediction of influenza-like illness with meteorological factors in Mississippi, USA","volume":"35","author":"Shi","year":"2022","journal-title":"Biomed Environ Sci"},{"key":"ref9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e0246023","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0246023","article-title":"Effect of meteorological factors on the activity of influenza in Chongqing, China, 2012-2019","volume":"16","author":"Qi","year":"2021","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"ref10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"496","DOI":"10.1111\/zph.12712","article-title":"Estimating acute human leptospirosis incidence in northern Tanzania using sentinel site and community behavioural surveillance","volume":"67","author":"Maze","year":"2020","journal-title":"Zoonoses Public Health"},{"key":"ref11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1839","DOI":"10.1099\/jgv.0.001839","article-title":"Time series prediction for the epidemic trends of monkeypox using the ARIMA, exponential smoothing, GM (1, 1) and LSTM deep learning methods","volume":"104","author":"Wei","year":"2023","journal-title":"J Gen Virol"},{"key":"ref12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"104868","DOI":"10.1016\/j.compbiomed.2021.104868","article-title":"SIRVD-DL: a COVID-19 deep learning prediction model based on time-dependent SIRVD","volume":"138","author":"Liao","year":"2021","journal-title":"Comput Biol Med"},{"key":"ref13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"248","DOI":"10.3904\/kjim.2022.135","article-title":"Incidence of rheumatic diseases during the COVID-19 pandemic in South Korea","volume":"38","author":"Ahn","year":"2023","journal-title":"Korean J Intern Med"},{"key":"ref14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"10","DOI":"10.1186\/s12938-025-01339-y","article-title":"Relationship between RSV-hospitalized children and meteorological factors: a time series analysis from 2017 to 2023","volume":"24","author":"Wang","year":"2025","journal-title":"Biomed Eng Online"},{"key":"ref15","first-page":"85","article-title":"National influenza surveillance program","volume":"31","year":"2011","journal-title":"Int J Respir Med"},{"key":"ref16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"946563","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2022.946563","article-title":"The comparative analysis of SARIMA, Facebook prophet, and LSTM for road traffic injury prediction in Northeast China","volume":"10","author":"Feng","year":"2022","journal-title":"Front Public Health"},{"key":"ref17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1788","DOI":"10.1186\/s12889-023-16720-6","article-title":"LSTM-based recurrent neural network provides effective short term flu forecasting","volume":"23","author":"Amendolara","year":"2023","journal-title":"BMC Public Health"},{"key":"ref18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1746529","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2026.1746529","article-title":"FaXNet: a frequency-adaptive, explainable, and uncertainty-aware network for influenza forecasting","volume":"14","author":"He","year":"2026","journal-title":"Front Public Health"},{"key":"ref19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1441240","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2024.1441240","article-title":"Exploring the influence of environmental indicators and forecasting influenza incidence using ARIMAX models","volume":"12","author":"Zheng","year":"2024","journal-title":"Front Public Health"},{"key":"ref20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"102772","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jiph.2025.102772","article-title":"Analyzing the impact of COVID-19 on seasonal infectious disease outbreak detection using hybrid SARIMAX-LSTM model","volume":"18","author":"Jang","year":"2025","journal-title":"J Infect Public Health"},{"key":"ref21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e0239729","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0239729","article-title":"Climate factors influence seasonal influenza activity in Bangkok, Thailand","volume":"15","author":"Suntronwong","year":"2020","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"ref22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"20180298","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2018.0298","article-title":"Mechanistic insights into the effect of humidity on airborne influenza virus survival, transmission and incidence","volume":"16","author":"Marr","year":"2019","journal-title":"J R Soc Interface"},{"key":"ref23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e46789","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0046789","article-title":"Relationship between humidity and influenza a viability in droplets and implications for influenza's seasonality","volume":"7","author":"Yang","year":"2012","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"ref24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"68","DOI":"10.1186\/s13054-025-05286-x","article-title":"Physiology and pathophysiology of mucus and mucolytic use in critically ill patients","volume":"29","author":"Roe","year":"2025","journal-title":"Crit Care"},{"key":"ref25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"17737","DOI":"10.1021\/acs.est.2c02311","article-title":"Virus dynamics and decay in evaporating human saliva droplets on fomites","volume":"57","author":"Kong","year":"2023","journal-title":"Environ Sci Technol"},{"key":"ref26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"696","DOI":"10.1111\/irv.12969","article-title":"Global patterns of seasonal influenza activity, duration of activity and virus (sub)type circulation from 2010 to 2020","volume":"16","author":"Zanobini","year":"2022","journal-title":"Influenza Other Respir Viruses"},{"key":"ref27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e0193263","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0193263","article-title":"Global influenza seasonality to inform country-level vaccine programs: an analysis of WHO FluNet influenza surveillance data between 2011 and 2016","volume":"13","author":"Newman","year":"2018","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"ref28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"4279","DOI":"10.1128\/JVI.06645-11","article-title":"Transmission of influenza B viruses in the guinea pig","volume":"86","author":"Pica","year":"2012","journal-title":"J Virol"},{"key":"ref29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1470","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.ppat.0030151","article-title":"Influenza virus transmission is dependent on relative humidity and temperature","volume":"3","author":"Lowen","year":"2007","journal-title":"PLoS Pathog"},{"key":"ref30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"207","DOI":"10.3390\/v11030207","article-title":"Low temperature and low UV indexes correlated with peaks of influenza virus activity in northern Europe during 2010\u22122018","volume":"11","author":"Ianevski","year":"2019","journal-title":"Viruses"},{"key":"ref31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3643","DOI":"10.21037\/jtd-24-1546","article-title":"Impact of airflow stimulation: mild cold airflow is more sensitive to influenza virus infection","volume":"17","author":"Huang","year":"2025","journal-title":"J Thorac Dis"},{"key":"ref32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"822","DOI":"10.3390\/v16060822","article-title":"Airborne influenza virus in daycare centers","volume":"16","author":"Zhang","year":"2024","journal-title":"Viruses"},{"key":"ref33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e1003194","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.ppat.1003194","article-title":"Environmental predictors of seasonal influenza epidemics across temperate and tropical climates","volume":"9","author":"Tamerius","year":"2013","journal-title":"PLoS Pathog"},{"key":"ref34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1615","DOI":"10.1007\/s00484-018-1561-z","article-title":"Impact of weather factors on influenza hospitalization across different age groups in subtropical Hong Kong","volume":"62","author":"Li","year":"2018","journal-title":"Int J Biometeorol"},{"key":"ref35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"158525","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2022.158525","article-title":"Subtypes specified environmental dependence of seasonal influenza virus","volume":"852","author":"Zhang","year":"2022","journal-title":"Sci Total Environ"},{"key":"ref36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1662775","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2025.1662775","article-title":"Improving influenza prediction in Quanzhou, China: an ARIMAX model integrated with meteorological drivers","volume":"13","author":"Pan","year":"2025","journal-title":"Front Public Health"},{"key":"ref37","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"513","DOI":"10.1111\/irv.12829","article-title":"Independent association between meteorological factors, PM2.5, and seasonal influenza activity in Hangzhou, Zhejiang province, China","volume":"15","author":"Lau","year":"2021","journal-title":"Influenza Other Respir Viruses"},{"key":"ref38","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1384","DOI":"10.1016\/j.idm.2025.07.010","article-title":"Interactive effects of meteorological factors and ambient air pollutants on influenza incidences 2019-2022 in Huaian, China","volume":"10","author":"Wang","year":"2025","journal-title":"Infect Dis Model"},{"key":"ref39","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"053310","DOI":"10.1063\/5.0011960","article-title":"On coughing and airborne droplet transmission to humans","volume":"32","author":"Dbouk","year":"2020","journal-title":"Phys Fluids"},{"key":"ref40","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"166","DOI":"10.1111\/irv.12617","article-title":"The effects of meteorological factors on influenza among children in Guangzhou, China","volume":"13","author":"Guo","year":"2019","journal-title":"Influenza Other Respir Viruses"},{"key":"ref41","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1589403","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2025.1589403","article-title":"Optimizing influenza prevention: a systematic review of the cost-effectiveness of pediatric vaccination programs and vaccine types","volume":"13","author":"Aksoy","year":"2025","journal-title":"Front Public Health"},{"key":"ref42","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2416329","DOI":"10.1080\/21645515.2024.2416329","article-title":"A prospective, randomized, parallel, active controlled, phase III Indian study of immunogenicity and safety of two inactivated influenza vaccines - Vaxiflu-4 and Fluarix tetra in children aged 6 months to 35 months","volume":"20","author":"Kothari","year":"2024","journal-title":"Hum Vaccin Immunother"},{"key":"ref43","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"5724","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vaccine.2016.10.013","article-title":"Seasonal influenza vaccination in China: landscape of diverse regional reimbursement policy, and budget impact analysis","volume":"34","author":"Yang","year":"2016","journal-title":"Vaccine"}],"container-title":["Frontiers in Public Health"],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/articles\/10.3389\/fpubh.2026.1776470\/full","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,8]],"date-time":"2026-04-08T05:33:29Z","timestamp":1775626409000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/articles\/10.3389\/fpubh.2026.1776470\/full"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,8]]},"references-count":43,"alternative-id":["10.3389\/fpubh.2026.1776470"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/fpubh.2026.1776470","relation":{},"ISSN":["2296-2565"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2296-2565","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,8]]},"article-number":"1776470"}}