{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,30]],"date-time":"2026-06-30T16:47:05Z","timestamp":1782838025057,"version":"3.54.5"},"reference-count":64,"publisher":"Frontiers Media SA","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,8]],"date-time":"2026-04-08T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1775606400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["frontiersin.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Front. Public Health"],"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Accurate forecasting of the Under-5 Mortality Rate (U5MR) is essential for monitoring health progress and informing policy interventions in conflict-affected regions. In Somalia, achieving the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.2 target of reducing child mortality to at least 25 deaths per 1,000 live births by 2030 remains a formidable challenge due to persistent socio-political instability and economic shocks.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      Utilizing a two-phase analytical approach, the study first evaluated 11 time-series models (6 single and 5 hybrid) based on historical U5MR data from 1960 to 2023. In the second phase, a multivariate ARIMAX framework (1989\u20132023) was implemented to incorporate exogenous drivers, including total conflict-related fatalities, GDP per capita, and immunization coverage. Model performance was validated using MAPE, sMAPE, and Theil\u2019s\n                      <jats:italic>U<\/jats:italic>\n                      statistics, supplemented by rigorous diagnostic tests such as Shapiro\u2013Wilk and Breusch\u2013Pagan.\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      The univariate analysis identified the TBATS and hybrid ARIMA\u2013TBATS models as the superior forecasting tools, with the latter selected for its robustness in handling Somalia\u2019s high data volatility. The multivariate ARIMAX model revealed that conflict fatalities are a highly significant predictor of mortality (\n                      <jats:inline-formula>\n                        <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\" id=\"M1\">\n                          <mml:mi>p<\/mml:mi>\n                          <mml:mo>&lt;<\/mml:mo>\n                          <mml:mn>0.001<\/mml:mn>\n                        <\/mml:math>\n                      <\/jats:inline-formula>\n                      ), while GDP per capita serves as a significant negative determinant (\n                      <jats:inline-formula>\n                        <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\" id=\"M2\">\n                          <mml:mi>p<\/mml:mi>\n                          <mml:mo>=<\/mml:mo>\n                          <mml:mn>0.0128<\/mml:mn>\n                        <\/mml:math>\n                      <\/jats:inline-formula>\n                      ). The ARIMAX model projects a U5MR of 86.29 deaths per 1,000 live births by 2030, while trend-based univariate models project a plateau at 109.78. Both projections indicate that Somalia remains significantly off-track to meet the SDG 3.2 target.\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The findings underscore a concerning stagnation in child mortality reduction. Achieving international benchmarks in Somalia requires a dual focus on intensifying health interventions and ensuring national security stability. These data-driven insights offer critical evidence for policymakers to design resilient strategies for child survival in the region.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2026.1783096","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,8]],"date-time":"2026-04-08T05:33:03Z","timestamp":1775626383000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Forecasting Under-5 Mortality Rate in Somalia to 2030: a comparative analysis of univariate and multivariate ARIMAX models"],"prefix":"10.3389","volume":"14","author":[{"given":"Suhaib Mohamed Kahie","family":"Seiman","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Postgraduate Studies and Research, Amoud University","place":["Borama, Somalia"]},{"name":"Department of Freshman, Amoud University","place":["Borama, Somalia"]},{"name":"Faculty of Education, Amoud University","place":["Borama, Somalia"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mustafe Mohamoud","family":"Abdi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Postgraduate Studies and Research, Amoud University","place":["Borama, Somalia"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Abdisalam Hassan","family":"Muse","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Postgraduate Studies and Research, Amoud University","place":["Borama, Somalia"]},{"name":"Research and Innovation Centre, Amoud University","place":["Borama, Somalia"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Khadar Mowlid","family":"Abdi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Postgraduate Studies and Research, Amoud University","place":["Borama, Somalia"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Khadar Jama","family":"Dahir","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Postgraduate Studies and Research, Amoud University","place":["Borama, Somalia"]},{"name":"Faculty of Education, Amoud University","place":["Borama, Somalia"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Omran","family":"Salah","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Postgraduate Studies and Research, Amoud University","place":["Borama, Somalia"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Saralees","family":"Nadarajah","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematics, University of Manchester","place":["Manchester, United Kingdom"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1965","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,8]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1181409","DOI":"10.1155\/2022\/1181409","article-title":"A systematic review of factors associated with under-five child mortality","volume":"2022","author":"Bhusal","year":"2022","journal-title":"Biomed Res Int"},{"key":"ref2","first-page":"2","volume-title":"Unfpa","year":"2023"},{"key":"ref3","first-page":"41","volume-title":"Transforming our World: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development","author":"Nations","year":"2015"},{"key":"ref4","volume-title":"WHO Guidelines for Malaria, 3 June 2022","year":"2022"},{"key":"ref5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1186\/s12874-020-01159-9","article-title":"Time series prediction of under-five mortality rates for Nigeria: comparative analysis of artificial neural networks, Holt-winters exponential smoothing and autoregressive integrated moving average models","volume":"20","author":"Adeyinka","year":"","journal-title":"BMC Med Res Methodol"},{"key":"ref6","first-page":"1134","article-title":"Effects of a law against early postpartum discharge on newborn follow-up, adverse events, and HMO expenditures","volume-title":"N Engl J Med","author":"Jeanne","year":"2002"},{"key":"ref7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"20802","DOI":"10.7189\/jogh.06.020802","article-title":"Causes of death in children younger than five years in China in 2015: an updated analysis","volume":"6","author":"Song","year":"2016","journal-title":"J Glob Health"},{"key":"ref8","first-page":"125","volume-title":"Causes of Death in Children Under Five Years of Age","author":"El Arifeen","year":"2005"},{"key":"ref9","article-title":"Levels & trends in child mortality: report 2017. 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