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For this, a nine-stage model of the epithelial cells in the milk ducts is developed, considering transition probabilities between the stages. As a proof of principle, the transition probabilities between the stages of our model are fit for scenarios with and without exposure to ionizing radiation. Although this model simplifies the complex interactions of external and internal factors and diverse cell types, we believe that these methods can be used to understand carcinogenesis from a different perspective.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2026.1802056","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,11]],"date-time":"2026-05-11T05:31:14Z","timestamp":1778477474000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["A cell-based model approach to radiation-induced breast cancer development"],"prefix":"10.3389","volume":"14","author":[{"given":"Jins","family":"de Jong","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research (TNO)","place":["Amsterdam, Netherlands"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jesse","family":"Vogel","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research 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