{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,30]],"date-time":"2026-09-30T06:56:53Z","timestamp":1790751413545,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":33,"publisher":"Frontiers Media SA","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,30]],"date-time":"2026-09-30T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1790726400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["frontiersin.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Front. Public Health"],"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Dengue fever has become an epidemiological concern worldwide, with 531,617 cases reported in Argentina during the 2023\u20132024 season. The El Ni\u00f1o\u2013Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon has been linked to changes in dengue dynamics. This study assessed the relationships among ENSO, local climatic variables, and dengue outbreaks in Argentina from 2018 to 2024.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>A nationwide spatiotemporal analysis was conducted using dengue cases and monthly mean temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was used as the ENSO indicator (El Ni\u00f1o phase\u202f\u2264\u202f\u22120.5, neutral phase\u202f=\u202f\u22120.5 to 0.5, and La Ni\u00f1a phase\u202f\u2265\u202f0.5). We fitted Hierarchical Bayesian models with Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA). A Negative Binomial distribution of dengue cases was used to account for overdispersion. Spatial dependence was modeled by using the Besag\u2013York\u2013Molli\u00e9 2 (BYM2) structure, adjusted for population.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      The final model achieved a Nagelkerke pseudo-R\n                      <jats:sup>2<\/jats:sup>\n                      of 0.537. Exposure-response curves of posterior probability and 95% credible intervals suggested that dengue risk increased when monthly mean temperatures were between 20\u00b0 and 30\u00b0 Celsius during the El Ni\u00f1o or neutral phase, with less consistent effects during the La Ni\u00f1a phase. Humidity &amp;gt;50% was associated with increased dengue risk during the La Ni\u00f1a phase, with less steep or absent associations during El Ni\u00f1o or neutral phases. Negative SOI scores were associated with an increased risk of dengue after controlling for the covariates.\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Dengue outbreaks in Argentina were independently associated with temperatures between 20 and 30\u202f\u00b0C during the El Ni\u00f1o and neutral phases, humidity &amp;gt; 50% during the La Ni\u00f1a phase, and the El Ni\u00f1o phase of the ENSO. Incorporating ENSO indices into predictive models could enhance early warning systems and timely public health interventions in Argentina.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2026.1830837","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,30]],"date-time":"2026-09-30T06:06:23Z","timestamp":1790748383000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Modeling the impact of the El Ni\u00f1o\u2013Southern Oscillation on the dynamics of dengue outbreaks in Argentina between 2018 and 2024"],"prefix":"10.3389","volume":"14","author":[{"given":"Alejandro","family":"Enet","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Observatorio de Salud P\u00fablica, Calidad de Vida y Medioambiente, Pontificia Universidad Cat\u00f3lica Argentina","place":["Buenos Aires, Argentina"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Chiara Elizabeth","family":"Lodigiani","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Facultad de Medicina, Pontificia Universidad Cat\u00f3lica Argentina","place":["Buenos Aires, Argentina"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Maia","family":"Arr\u00faa Miano","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Facultad de Medicina, Pontificia Universidad Cat\u00f3lica Argentina","place":["Buenos Aires, Argentina"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Gabriela","family":"Lakkis","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Facultad de Ingenier\u00eda y Ciencias Agrarias, Pontificia Universidad Cat\u00f3lica Argentina, UTN, FRBA, UIDI","place":["Buenos Aires, Argentina"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Lucas Mariano","family":"Moreno Lell","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Facultad de Medicina, Pontificia Universidad Cat\u00f3lica Argentina","place":["Buenos Aires, Argentina"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Carla Mar\u00eda","family":"Panzarella","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Facultad de Medicina, Pontificia Universidad Cat\u00f3lica Argentina","place":["Buenos Aires, Argentina"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sol Denise","family":"Otero Legovich","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Facultad de Medicina, Pontificia Universidad Cat\u00f3lica Argentina","place":["Buenos Aires, Argentina"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ornella Abril","family":"Bellizzi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Facultad de Medicina, Pontificia Universidad Cat\u00f3lica Argentina","place":["Buenos Aires, Argentina"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Manuela","family":"Bull\u00f3","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Observatorio de Salud P\u00fablica, Calidad de Vida y Medioambiente, Pontificia Universidad Cat\u00f3lica Argentina","place":["Buenos Aires, Argentina"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Santiago","family":"Perez-Lloret","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Observatorio de Salud P\u00fablica, Calidad de Vida y Medioambiente, Pontificia Universidad Cat\u00f3lica Argentina","place":["Buenos Aires, Argentina"]},{"name":"Facultad de Medicina, Pontificia Universidad Cat\u00f3lica Argentina","place":["Buenos Aires, Argentina"]},{"name":"Consejo de Investigaciones Cient\u00edficas y T\u00e9cnicas (CONICET)","place":["Buenos Aires, Argentina"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1965","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,30]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"272","DOI":"10.1016\/j.micinf.2009.12.011","article-title":"The dengue vector Aedes aegypti: what comes next","volume":"12","author":"Jansen","year":"2010","journal-title":"Microbes 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