{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,1]],"date-time":"2026-09-01T06:14:42Z","timestamp":1788243282514,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":28,"publisher":"Frontiers Media SA","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,1]],"date-time":"2026-09-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1788220800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["frontiersin.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Front. Public Health"],"abstract":"<jats:p>\n                    Ebolowa, capital of Cameroon's South Region (\u2248 92, 000 residents; referral hub for \u2248 180, 000), sits on the Cameroon\u2013Gabon\u2013Equatorial Guinea border and has recurrently faced cholera, malaria, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and mpox, yet its universal health coverage (UHC) service-coverage index is only 44\/100 and physician density is under 2 per 10,000 population. We develop a generic, disease-agnostic SEIR+D framework rather than one fitted to a single pathogen: the baseline parameter set (\u211b\n                    <jats:sub>0<\/jats:sub>\n                    = 3.00) represents a broadly plausible acute epidemic-prone infection, checked qualitatively\u2014not calibrated\u2014against 2021\u20132022 cholera surveillance data. Parameters are drawn from the World Health Organization (WHO) and national sources; \u211b\n                    <jats:sub>0<\/jats:sub>\n                    is derived via the next-generation matrix method; and the resulting ODE system is solved via fourth-order Runge\u2013Kutta integration over an 180-day horizon under three pre-specified intervention scenarios. At baseline, without intervention, infections peak at 14,226 persons (15.5% of the population) on day 119. The attack rate reaches 91.0% (\u2248 83, 700 cases), 2,608 people die, and peak bed demand reaches 356% of the 200-bed capacity. A moderate non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI, 40% transmission reduction from day 30) cuts the attack rate to 26.8% but still reaches 98% bed capacity. A strong NPI (70% reduction from day 20) cuts deaths by 99.8% (to \u2248 4) and holds bed utilization below 1%. The ten-day timing advantage over moderate NPI alone saves roughly 538 additional lives. These results indicate that only early, aggressive intervention is compatible with Ebolowa's health-system capacity, and that, given the city's four-decade epidemic history, funded, pre-positioned\u2013rather than reactive mobilization after a signal emerges\u2014is warranted for this cross-border population.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2026.1931807","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,1]],"date-time":"2026-09-01T05:32:42Z","timestamp":1788240762000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["SEIR+D epidemic modeling of infectious disease dynamics in Ebolowa, South Region, Republic of Cameroon"],"prefix":"10.3389","volume":"14","author":[{"given":"G.","family":"Ramraj","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematics, School of Advanced Sciences (SAS), VIT University","place":["Vellore, Tamil Nadu, India"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"T.","family":"Poornima","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematics, School of Advanced Sciences (SAS), VIT University","place":["Vellore, Tamil Nadu, India"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1965","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,1]]},"reference":[{"key":"B1","unstructured":"Geneva\n          WHO.\n          Cameroon: Health Data Overview and Country Statistics\n          \n          2024"},{"key":"B2","volume-title":"World Malaria Report 2024","year":"2024"},{"key":"B3","volume-title":"Weekly Bulletin on Outbreaks and Other Emergencies: Week 34, 2024","year":"2024"},{"key":"B4","year":"2024","journal-title":"Cholera in the WHO African Region: 2024 Epidemiological Bulletin"},{"key":"B5","volume-title":"WHO Director-General Declares Mpox Outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, 14 August 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study","volume":"25","author":"Mboringong","year":"2025"},{"key":"B18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"S92","DOI":"10.1093\/infdis\/jit197","article-title":"National surveillance data on the epidemiology of cholera in Cameroon, 2010-2011","volume":"208","author":"Nganou-Makamdop","year":"2013","journal-title":"J Infect Dis"},{"key":"B19","unstructured":"Geneva\n          WHO\n          Cholera Epidemiology and Response Factsheet: Cameroon\n          \n          2015"},{"key":"B20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e0005105","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0005105","article-title":"Cholera epidemic in Cameroon, 2000-2012: spatial and temporal analysis","volume":"10","author":"Tuite","year":"2016","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"key":"B21","unstructured":"COVID-19 pandemic in Cameroon\n          \n          2026"},{"key":"B22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"379","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMe2416384","article-title":"Evolving epidemiology of mpox in Africa in 2024","volume":"392","author":"Africa","year":"2025","journal-title":"New Engl J Med"},{"key":"B23","unstructured":"Disease Outbreak News: Ebola virus disease-Bundibugyo virus\n          \n          2026"},{"key":"B24","unstructured":"Demographics of Cameroon: Population Projections 2020\n          \n          2022"},{"key":"B25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"57","DOI":"10.3934\/mbe.2004.1.57","article-title":"A Lyapunov function and global properties for SIR and SEIR epidemiological models with nonlinear incidence","volume":"1","author":"Korobeinikov","year":"2004","journal-title":"Mathem Biosci Eng"},{"key":"B26","unstructured":"Cameroon Country Profile 2024 (Global Programme of Work 13)\n          \n          2024"},{"key":"B27","year":"2020","journal-title":"2018 Cameroon Demographic and Health Survey Summary Report"},{"key":"B28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"5","DOI":"10.1186\/s13031-023-00504-1","article-title":"Usefulness of disease surveillance data in enhanced early warning of the cholera outbreak in Southwest Cameroon, 2018","volume":"17","author":"Mengue Kadia","year":"2023","journal-title":"Confl Health"}],"container-title":["Frontiers in Public Health"],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/articles\/10.3389\/fpubh.2026.1931807\/full","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,1]],"date-time":"2026-09-01T05:32:44Z","timestamp":1788240764000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/articles\/10.3389\/fpubh.2026.1931807\/full"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,1]]},"references-count":28,"alternative-id":["10.3389\/fpubh.2026.1931807"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/fpubh.2026.1931807","relation":{},"ISSN":["2296-2565"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2296-2565","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,1]]},"article-number":"1931807"}}