{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,2]],"date-time":"2026-10-02T04:55:32Z","timestamp":1790916932116,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":23,"publisher":"Frontiers Media SA","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,2]],"date-time":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1790899200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["frontiersin.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Front. Public Health"],"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Introduction<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>To analyze trends and project future changes in birth population and HBsAg-positive pregnant women in Zaozhuang City from 2012 to 2024, providing baseline data and evidence for optimizing resource allocation and formulating strategies to eliminate mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of hepatitis B virus (HBV).<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Data on annual births and HBsAg-positive pregnant women were col from the Zaozhuang Statistical Yearbook and the Shandong Provincial Immunization Program Information System (2012 -2024). Birth rate and maternal HBsAg prevalence were calculated. Trends were analyzed using Joinpoint regression to estimate annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC). Curve regression models were fitted to project 2025 levels. Time series analysis based on monthly data was performed for forecasting.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      The birth rate declined significantly overall (AAPC = \u22126.676%,\n                      <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\n                      = 0.015), ranging from 5.989\u2030 to 17.383\u2030 during 2012 -2024. A period of rapid decline occurred from 2017 to 2021 (APC = \u221218.730%, p = 0.018). The mean maternal HBsAg prevalence was 2.896%. A significant decreasing trend was observed from 2015 to 2024 (APC = \u22124.442%,\n                      <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\n                      = 0.001). The birth rate and maternal HBsAg prevalence were best fitted by exponential and quadratic function models, respectively, yielding 2025 projections of 5.876\u2030 and 1.755%. ARIMA models were selected as optifor forecasting monthly time series: ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,2)\u2081\u2082 for birth count and ARIMA(0,1,1)(1,1,1)\u2081\u2082 for HBsAg-positive pregnant women count.\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Fertility levels and maternal HBsAg prevalence in Zaozhuang City exhibit sustained declining trends. The fitted model can be used for short-term prediction, providing robust evidence to inform regional healthcare resource planning and the development of comprehensive interventions to eliminate HBV MTCT.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2026.1933547","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,2]],"date-time":"2026-10-02T04:35:12Z","timestamp":1790915712000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Analysis and prediction of trends in birth population and HBsAg-positive pregnant women in Zaozhuang City, 2012\u20132024"],"prefix":"10.3389","volume":"14","author":[{"given":"Xiwang","family":"Sun","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Zaozhuang Center for Disease Prevention and Control","place":["Zaozhuang, Shandong, China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Changling","family":"Bian","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Zaozhuang Center for Disease Prevention and Control","place":["Zaozhuang, Shandong, China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jingjing","family":"Zhu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Zaozhuang Center for Disease Prevention and Control","place":["Zaozhuang, Shandong, China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1965","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,2]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref1","first-page":"17","article-title":"New trends in population development, important missions for population research, and priority tasks in population work in China","volume":"49","author":"Xie","year":"2025","journal-title":"Popul Res"},{"key":"ref2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"457","DOI":"10.3760\/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2017.04.009","article-title":"Sero-epidemiological analysis on hepatitis B among children aged 1\u201314 years old born to HBsAg positive mother in China, 2014. 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