{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,21]],"date-time":"2026-08-21T06:24:08Z","timestamp":1787293448071,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":29,"publisher":"Frontiers Media SA","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,21]],"date-time":"2026-08-21T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1787270400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100020941","name":"Universidad Peruana Uni\u00f3n","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100020941","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["frontiersin.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Front. Artif. Intell."],"abstract":"<jats:p>\n                    Open global hydrological products are often the only continuous source available for data-scarce locations, but their local use is stronger when the modelled signal is connected to documented hydrometric evidence. This study evaluates an explainable machine-learning workflow for anticipating the GloFAS v4-derived discharge series returned by the Open-Meteo Flood API near Babahoyo, Ecuador, and complements the modern 2017\u20132026 analysis with a historical hydrometric-context protocol based on official INAMHI yearbooks for the San Pablo-Babahoyo system. Direct models were assessed at t+1, t+3, t+7, and t+14 using leakage-aware features, rolling-origin backtesting, a 365-day holdout, prediction intervals, product-state classification, permutation importance, and SHAP. ElasticNetCV achieved R\n                    <jats:sup>2<\/jats:sup>\n                    \/NSE of 0.900 at t+1 in the final holdout, while mean backtest skill weakened at longer horizons. The dominant role of current and recent discharge values shows that the main short-term contribution is efficient local post-processing of GloFAS persistence; meteorological and seasonal information becomes relatively more important as lead time increases. The study therefore contributes a transparent multi-horizon evaluation, an auditable pathway for historical gauge-level corroboration, and practical diagnostics for deciding when local emulation is informative and when the native global product should remain the primary reference.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3389\/frai.2026.1901591","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,21]],"date-time":"2026-08-21T05:35:43Z","timestamp":1787290543000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Historical hydrometric context and explainable multi-horizon evaluation of a GloFAS-derived discharge product near Babahoyo, Ecuador"],"prefix":"10.3389","volume":"9","author":[{"given":"Alexander","family":"Haro-Sarango","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Escuela Profesional de Contabilidad, Universidad Peruana Uni\u00f3n","place":["Lima, Peru"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Silvia","family":"Cachay-Salcedo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Escuela Profesional de Contabilidad, Universidad Peruana Uni\u00f3n","place":["Lima, Peru"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jessica","family":"Saavedra-Vasconez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Escuela Profesional de Contabilidad, Universidad Peruana Uni\u00f3n","place":["Lima, Peru"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Rosa","family":"Salcedo-D\u00e1valos","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Escuela Profesional de Contabilidad, Universidad Peruana Uni\u00f3n","place":["Lima, Peru"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Elizabeth","family":"Proa\u00f1o-Altamirano","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Escuela Profesional de Contabilidad, Universidad Peruana Uni\u00f3n","place":["Lima, Peru"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1965","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,21]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1161","DOI":"10.5194\/hess-17-1161-2013","article-title":"GloFAS\u2014global ensemble streamflow forecasting and flood early warning","volume":"17","author":"Alfieri","year":"2013","journal-title":"Hydrol. 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