{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,11]],"date-time":"2025-11-11T05:13:59Z","timestamp":1762838039363,"version":"build-2065373602"},"reference-count":59,"publisher":"Frontiers Media SA","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,11]],"date-time":"2025-11-11T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1762819200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["frontiersin.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Front. Vet. Sci."],"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Introduction<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Despite its endemic status and socioeconomic impacts, the spatial-temporal variation in rabies risk and its underlying determinants in Kazakhstan animal populations remain poorly understood. This study aimed to characterize the time-space dynamics of rabies in animal populations across Kazakhstan regions from 2013 to 2023 and identify the key drivers of transmission.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Using a Bayesian hierarchical regression model with spatial and temporal random effects, we analyzed national surveillance data on rabies cases in livestock, companion animals, and wildlife, alongside sociodemographic and animal population variables.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The model revealed that higher median income (odds ratio [OR]: 1.18, 95% posterior predictive interval [PPI]: 1.06\u20131.31), the presence of rabies in wildlife (OR: 1.55, 95% PPI: 1.27\u20131.89), and companion animal rabies incidence (low: 1\u20135 cases\/year, OR: 1.39, 95% PPI: 1.06\u20131.85; high: \u22656 cases\/year, OR: 2.07, 95% PPI: 1.46\u20132.96) were associated with increased livestock rabies risk, while higher human population density correlated with reduced risk (OR: 0.68, 95% PPI: 0.5\u20130.9). Spatial analysis identified persistent high-risk zones in western Kazakhstan and lower risk in southern regions, driven by ecological and socioeconomic heterogeneity.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Discussion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>These findings highlight the relationship between wildlife reservoirs, domestic animal management, and socioeconomic factors in rabies transmission in Kazakhstan. By integrating these insights into national policy, Kazakhstan can advance toward the global target of eliminating dog-mediated human rabies deaths by 2030, serving as a model for Central Asia.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.3389\/fvets.2025.1640050","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,11]],"date-time":"2025-11-11T05:10:39Z","timestamp":1762837839000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["A time-space Bayesian regression model of rabies cases in the animal population of Kazakhstan (2013\u20132023)"],"prefix":"10.3389","volume":"12","author":[{"given":"Alberto","family":"Gomez-Buendia","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Gulzhan","family":"Yessembekova","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Ablaikhan","family":"Kadyrov","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Yersyn","family":"Mukhanbetkaliyev","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Eva","family":"Cervi\u00f1o-Luridiana","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Julio","family":"Alvarez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Andres M.","family":"Perez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Sarsenbay K.","family":"Abdrakhmanov","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1965","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,11]]},"reference":[{"key":"B1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"451","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev-virology-100114-055157","article-title":"Everything you always wanted to know about Rabies Virus (but were afraid to ask)","volume":"2","author":"Davis","year":"2015","journal-title":"Annu Rev Virol."},{"key":"B2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"51","DOI":"10.1038\/nrmicro2260","article-title":"The cell biology of rabies virus: using stealth to reach the brain","volume":"8","author":"Schnell","year":"2010","journal-title":"Nat Rev Microbiol."},{"key":"B3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"331","DOI":"10.20506\/rst.37.2.2806","article-title":"Rabies in dogs, livestock and wildlife: a veterinary perspective","volume":"37","author":"Mbilo","year":"2018","journal-title":"Revue Scientifique et Technique-Office International Des Epizooties."},{"key":"B4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"241","DOI":"10.1038\/nrmicro.2018.11","article-title":"The spread and evolution of rabies virus: conquering new frontiers","volume":"16","author":"Fisher","year":"2018","journal-title":"Nat Rev Microbiol."},{"key":"B5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1475431","DOI":"10.3389\/fvets.2024.1475431","article-title":"Rabies virus as vector for development of vaccine: pros and cons","volume":"11","author":"Li","year":"2024","journal-title":"Front Vet Sci."},{"key":"B6","volume-title":"Zero by 30: the global strategic plan to end human deaths from dog-mediated rabies by 2030","year":"2018"},{"key":"B7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"352","DOI":"10.1016\/j.antiviral.2013.03.004","article-title":"Potential economic benefits of eliminating canine rabies","volume":"98","author":"Shwiff","year":"2013","journal-title":"Antiviral Res."},{"key":"B8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1642","DOI":"10.3201\/eid3008.230876","article-title":"Geographic distribution of rabies virus and genomic sequence alignment of wild and vaccine strains, Kenya","volume":"30","author":"Wambugu","year":"2024","journal-title":"Emerging Infect. 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