{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,7]],"date-time":"2026-03-07T04:39:51Z","timestamp":1772858391686,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":63,"publisher":"Frontiers Media SA","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,3,14]],"date-time":"2023-03-14T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1678752000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["frontiersin.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Front. Mar. Sci."],"abstract":"<jats:p>At the latitudinal interval that encompasses Europe, due to the gradual seawater warming imposed by climate change, there is now continuing evidence for a widespread pattern of poleward range shifts, often translated by expansions in the northern leading edges of distribution and contraction episodes at the southern boundaries. As the distribution of biodiversity is far from static, it seems imperative that we can predict changes in species\u2019 geographic ranges to potentially circumvent severe biodiversity losses in the near future. Here, we focus on syngnathids, flagship species and umbrella taxa for coastal marine ecosystems, and attempt to identify areas of environmental suitability in Europe over the next century, according to distinct greenhouse gas concentration trajectories. Our results seamlessly match the general and region-specific impacts of climate change projections for European seas. Especially within the Atlantic Coast, species are expected to continue poleward range shifts, with the hotspot of syngnathid diversity remaining around the Celtic-Biscay Shelf, albeit with slightly distinct species composition from that of present day. The most dramatic changes are expected within semi-enclosed areas such as the Baltic, the Mediterranean and the Black Sea, where present-day endemic species diversity is likely to plunge, especially under a \u2018business-as-usual\u2019 scenario. When looking at the potential protective role of \u2018no-take\u2019 marine protected areas (MPAs) on European syngnathids, a clear latitudinal asymmetry emerged. From the Atlantic diversity hotspot downwards, and especially in the Mediterranean and Black Sea, the current \u2018no-take\u2019 MPA layout, if it remains static, will not be especially effective in either safeguarding syngnathid diversity or delaying the expected gradual species disappearance. Europe needs to be prepared to implement, at a continental scale, coordinated conservation measures aimed at preventing (or delaying, at the very least) the loss of its marine endemic species. As umbrella species, conservation efforts aimed at syngnathids will surely have a positive impact on coastal ecosystems.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3389\/fmars.2023.1138657","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,3,14]],"date-time":"2023-03-14T15:14:01Z","timestamp":1678806841000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":17,"title":["Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of European syngnathids over the next century"],"prefix":"10.3389","volume":"10","author":[{"given":"Nuno","family":"Monteiro","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Sara","family":"Pinheiro","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Susana","family":"Magalh\u00e3es","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Pedro","family":"Tarroso","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Amanda","family":"Vincent","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"1965","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,3,14]]},"reference":[{"key":"B1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1597","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1095-8649.2011.03008.x","article-title":"The biology of syngnathidae: pipefishes, seadragons and seahorses","volume":"78","author":"Ahnesj\u00f6","year":"2011","journal-title":"J. Fish Biol."},{"key":"B2","volume-title":"Red data book of Ukraine","author":"Akimova","year":"2009"},{"key":"B3","volume-title":"Etopo1 1 arc-minute global relief model: Procedures, data sources and analysis","author":"Amante","year":"2009"},{"key":"B4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1407","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2699.2010.02300.x","article-title":"Identifying refugia from climate change","volume":"37","author":"Ashcroft","year":"2010","journal-title":"J. Biogeogr."},{"key":"B5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"277","DOI":"10.1111\/geb.12693","article-title":"Bio-ORACLE v2.0: Extending marine data layers for bioclimatic modelling","volume":"27","author":"Assis","year":"2018","journal-title":"Global Ecol. Biogeogr."},{"key":"B6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1224","DOI":"10.1111\/ddi.12107","article-title":"Appropriateness of full-, partial- and no-dispersal scenarios in climate change impact modelling","volume":"19","author":"Bateman","year":"2013","journal-title":"Diversity Distributions"},{"key":"B7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"131","DOI":"10.1016\/S0065-3454(03)01003-9","article-title":"Sex role reversal in pipefish","volume":"32","author":"Berglund","year":"2003","journal-title":"Adv. Stud. Behav."},{"key":"B8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1238","DOI":"10.1016\/j.fsi.2012.08.028","article-title":"Salinity change impairs pipefish immune defence","volume":"33","author":"Birrer","year":"2012","journal-title":"Fish Shellfish Immunol."},{"key":"B9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"9","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1523-1739.2010.01606.x","article-title":"Assessing the value of the umbrella-species concept for conservation planning with meta-analysis","volume":"25","author":"Branton","year":"2011","journal-title":"Conserv. Biol."},{"key":"B10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"499","DOI":"10.1038\/s41558-018-0149-2","article-title":"Climate change threatens the world\u2019s marine protected areas","volume":"8","author":"Bruno","year":"2018","journal-title":"Nat. Climate Change"},{"key":"B11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"652","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1210288","article-title":"The pace of shifting climate in marine and terrestrial ecosystems","volume":"334","author":"Burrows","year":"2011","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"B12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e0241771","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0241771","article-title":"Shifting seas, shifting boundaries: Dynamic marine protected area designs for a changing climate","volume":"15","author":"Cashion","year":"2020","journal-title":"PloS One"},{"key":"B13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"507","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tree.2015.06.011","article-title":"Biodiversity conservation should focus on no-take marine reserves: 94% of marine protected areas allow fishing","volume":"30","author":"Costello","year":"2015","journal-title":"Trends Ecol. Evol."},{"key":"B14","first-page":"628","article-title":"Syngnathidae","volume-title":"Fishes of the north-eastern Atlantic and the Mediterranean","author":"Dawson","year":"1986"},{"key":"B15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"11","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev-marine-041911-111611","article-title":"Climate change impacts on marine ecosystems","volume":"4","author":"Doney","year":"2012","journal-title":"Ann. Rev. Mar. Sci."},{"key":"B16","volume-title":"EU Biodiversity strategy for 2030. bringing nature back into our lives","year":"2021"},{"key":"B17","unstructured":"FroeseR.\n            PaulyD.\n          FishBase2021"},{"key":"B18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1607","DOI":"10.1111\/brv.12632","article-title":"Temperature as a modulator of sexual selection","volume":"95","author":"Garc\u00eda-Roa","year":"2020","journal-title":"Biol. Rev."},{"key":"B19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"388","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ympev.2016.10.003","article-title":"Molecular phylogeny and patterns of diversification in syngnathid fishes","volume":"107","author":"Hamilton","year":"2017","journal-title":"Mol. Phylogenet Evol."},{"key":"B20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"263","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envsci.2021.10.028","article-title":"The EU biodiversity strategy for 2030: Opportunities and challenges on the path towards biodiversity recovery","volume":"127","author":"Hermoso","year":"2022","journal-title":"Environ. Sci. Policy"},{"key":"B21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"450","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2486.2006.01116.x","article-title":"The distributions of a wide range of taxonomic groups are expanding polewards","volume":"12","author":"Hickling","year":"2006","journal-title":"Global Change Biol."},{"key":"B22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2272","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2486.2006.01256.x","article-title":"The ability of climate envelope models to predict the effect of climate change on species distributions","volume":"12","author":"Hijmans","year":"2006","journal-title":"Global Change Biol."},{"key":"B23","article-title":"R package version 2.0-12","volume-title":"Raster: Geographic analysis and modeling with raster data","author":"Hijmans","year":"2012"},{"key":"B24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"94","DOI":"10.1046\/j.1439-0426.2003.00357.x","article-title":"Tolerance of seahorse hippocampus kuda (Bleeker) juveniles to various salinities","volume":"19","author":"Hilomen-Garcia","year":"2003","journal-title":"J. Appl. Ichthyol."},{"key":"B25","volume-title":"Livro vermelho dos vertebrados de Portugal","year":"1993"},{"key":"B26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"169","DOI":"10.26028\/cybium\/2021-453-001","article-title":"French Ichthyological records for 2019","volume":"45","author":"Iglesias","year":"2021","journal-title":"Cybium: Rev. Internationale d\u2019Ichtyologie"},{"key":"B27","volume-title":"The IUCN red list of threatened species","year":"2022"},{"key":"B28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"19","DOI":"10.1080\/03632415.2017.1259944","article-title":"Low bycatch rates add up to big numbers for a genus of small fishes","volume":"42","author":"Lawson","year":"2017","journal-title":"Fisheries"},{"key":"B29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"15","DOI":"10.1111\/ecog.00967","article-title":"Climate-related range shifts \u2013 a global multidimensional synthesis and new research directions","volume":"38","author":"Lenoir","year":"2015","journal-title":"Ecography"},{"key":"B30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1052","DOI":"10.1038\/nature08649","article-title":"The velocity of climate change","volume":"462","author":"Loarie","year":"2009","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"B31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"979","DOI":"10.1111\/jbi.14330","article-title":"Expert range maps of global mammal distributions harmonised to three taxonomic authorities","volume":"49","author":"Marsh","year":"2022","journal-title":"J. Biogeogr."},{"key":"B32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"577","DOI":"10.1111\/jwas.12142","article-title":"Effect of salinity on growth and survival in juvenile opossum pipefish, microphis brachyurus, in culture conditions","volume":"45","author":"Martinez-Cardenas","year":"2014","journal-title":"J. World Aquaculture Soc."},{"key":"B33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"585","DOI":"10.1093\/jhered\/esaa052","article-title":"Strong sexual selection does not induce population differentiation in a fish species with high dispersal potential: The curious case of the worm pipefish nerophis lumbriciformis (Teleostei: Syngnathidae)","volume":"111","author":"Mendes","year":"2020","journal-title":"J. Heredity"},{"key":"B34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1475","DOI":"10.1111\/j.0022-1112.2005.00818.x","article-title":"Temporal patterns of breeding and recruitment in nerophis lumbriciformis (Pisces; syngnathidae) related to seawater temperatures","volume":"67","author":"Monteiro","year":"2005","journal-title":"J. Fish Biol."},{"key":"B35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3600","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.13630","article-title":"Parabolic variation in sexual selection intensity across the range of a cold-water pipefish: implications for susceptibility to climate change","volume":"23","author":"Monteiro","year":"2017","journal-title":"Global Change Biol."},{"key":"B36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"555608","DOI":"10.19080\/OFOAJ.2017.03.555608","article-title":"Rendez-vous at the Baltic? the ongoing dispersion of the black-striped pipefish, syngnathus abaster","volume":"3","author":"Monteiro","year":"2017","journal-title":"Oceanogr. Ocean fish Open Access J."},{"key":"B37","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"504","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1237190","article-title":"The future of species under climate change: resilience or decline","volume":"341","author":"Moritz","year":"2013","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"B38","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"747","DOI":"10.1038\/nature08823","article-title":"The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment","volume":"463","author":"Moss","year":"2010","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"B39","unstructured":"2022\n            StumpfR. P.\n          Distance to nearest coastline: 0.01-degree grid2022"},{"key":"B40","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1080","DOI":"10.1111\/jfb.12760","article-title":"First records of hippocampus algiricus in the canary islands (north-east Atlantic ocean) with an observation of hybridization with hippocampus hippocampus","volume":"87","author":"Otero-Ferrer","year":"2015","journal-title":"J. Fish Biol."},{"key":"B41","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e73051","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0073051","article-title":"Marmap: A package for importing, plotting and analyzing bathymetric and topographic data in r","volume":"8","author":"Pante","year":"2013","journal-title":"PloS One"},{"key":"B42","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"819","DOI":"10.1111\/mec.16333","article-title":"Immunological tolerance in the evolution of male pregnancy","volume":"32","author":"Parker","year":"2022","journal-title":"Mol. Ecol."},{"key":"B43","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"637","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.ecolsys.37.091305.110100","article-title":"Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change","volume":"37","author":"Parmesan","year":"2006","journal-title":"Annu. Rev. Of Ecol. Evol. And Systematics"},{"key":"B44","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"579","DOI":"10.1038\/21181","article-title":"Poleward shifts in geographical ranges of butterfly species associated with regional warming","volume":"399","author":"Parmesan","year":"1999","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"B45","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.aai9214","article-title":"Biodiversity redistribution under climate change: Impacts on ecosystems and human well-being","volume":"355","author":"Pecl","year":"2017","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"B46","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"52","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jembe.2011.02.023","article-title":"Impacts of climate change on European marine ecosystems: Observations, expectations and indicators","volume":"400","author":"Philippart","year":"2011","journal-title":"J. Exp. Mar. Biol. Ecol."},{"key":"B47","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"497","DOI":"10.1017\/S0030605320000782","article-title":"Global extinction risk for seahorses, pipefishes and their near relatives (Syngnathiformes)","volume":"55","author":"Pollom","year":"2021","journal-title":"Oryx"},{"key":"B48","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"337","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jembe.2014.09.001","article-title":"Effects of water current on swimming performance, ventilation frequency, and feeding behavior of young seahorses (Hippocampus erectus)","volume":"461","author":"Qin","year":"2014","journal-title":"J. Exp. Mar. Biol. Ecol."},{"key":"B49","volume-title":"R: A language and environment for statistical computing","year":"2022"},{"key":"B50","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"9431","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1916251117","article-title":"Evolution of male pregnancy associated with remodeling of canonical vertebrate immunity in seahorses and pipefishes","volume":"117","author":"Roth","year":"2020","journal-title":"Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A."},{"key":"B51","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"588","DOI":"10.1002\/aqc.1009","article-title":"The effectiveness of seahorses and pipefish (Pisces: Syngnathidae) as a flagship group to evaluate the conservation value of estuarine seagrass beds","volume":"19","author":"Shokri","year":"2009","journal-title":"Aquat. Conservation: Mar. Freshw. Ecosyst."},{"key":"B52","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1525","DOI":"10.1016\/j.anbehav.2007.03.008","article-title":"The effect of temperature on mate preferences and female\u2013female interactions in syngnathus abaster","volume":"74","author":"Silva","year":"2007","journal-title":"Anim. Behav."},{"key":"B53","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"174","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jmarsys.2014.02.004","article-title":"Eutrophication status of the north Sea, skagerrak, kattegat and the Baltic Sea in present and future climates: A model study","volume":"132","author":"Skogen","year":"2014","journal-title":"J. Mar. Syst."},{"key":"B54","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"43","DOI":"10.14288\/1.0401950","article-title":"Identifying national conservation status, legislation and priorities for syngnathid fishes globally","volume":"29","author":"Stanton","year":"2021","journal-title":"Fish. Cent. Res. Rep."},{"key":"B55","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"713","DOI":"10.14288\/1.0401950","article-title":"Turbidity hampers mate choice in a pipefish","volume":"116","author":"Sundin","year":"2010","journal-title":"Ethology"},{"key":"B56","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3750\/AIP2014.44.2.02","article-title":"A conspicuous population of the long-snouted seahorse, hippocampus guttulatus (Actinopterygii: Syngnathiformes: Syngnathidae), in a highly polluted Mediterranean coastal lagoon","volume":"44","author":"Tiralongo","year":"2014","journal-title":"Acta Ichthyologica Piscatoria"},{"key":"B57","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e2110802118","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2110802118","article-title":"Anthropogenic pressures and life history predict trajectories of seagrass meadow extent at a global scale","volume":"118","author":"Turschwell","year":"2021","journal-title":"Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci."},{"key":"B58","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"272","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1466-8238.2011.00656.x","article-title":"Bio-ORACLE: a global environmental dataset for marine species distribution modelling","volume":"21","author":"Tyberghein","year":"2012","journal-title":"Global Ecol. Biogeogr."},{"key":"B59","volume-title":"Protected planet: The world database on protected areas (WDPA) and world database on other effective area-based conservation measures (WD-OECM)","year":"2022"},{"key":"B60","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1681","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1095-8649.2011.03003.x","article-title":"Conservation and management of seahorses and other syngnathidae","volume":"78","author":"Vincent","year":"2011","journal-title":"J. Fish Biol."},{"key":"B61","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"678","DOI":"10.1038\/nclimate1887","article-title":"Quantifying the benefit of early climate change mitigation in avoiding biodiversity loss","volume":"3","author":"Warren","year":"2013","journal-title":"Nat. Climate Change"},{"key":"B62","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3251","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.15094","article-title":"Incorporating climate change adaptation into marine protected area planning","volume":"26","author":"Wilson","year":"2020","journal-title":"Glob. Change Biol."},{"key":"B63","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1505","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1095-8649.2009.02371.x","article-title":"First occurrence of the lined seahorse hippocampus erectus in the eastern Atlantic ocean","volume":"75","author":"Woodall","year":"2009","journal-title":"J. Fish Biol."}],"container-title":["Frontiers in Marine Science"],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/articles\/10.3389\/fmars.2023.1138657\/full","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,3,14]],"date-time":"2023-03-14T15:14:16Z","timestamp":1678806856000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/articles\/10.3389\/fmars.2023.1138657\/full"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2023,3,14]]},"references-count":63,"alternative-id":["10.3389\/fmars.2023.1138657"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/fmars.2023.1138657","relation":{},"ISSN":["2296-7745"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2296-7745","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2023,3,14]]},"article-number":"1138657"}}