{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,21]],"date-time":"2026-02-21T06:32:47Z","timestamp":1771655567451,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":33,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,9,15]],"date-time":"2021-09-15T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1631664000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100008840","name":"Al-Imam Muhammad Ibn Saud Islamic University","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["21-13-18-057"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["21-13-18-057"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100008840","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Axioms"],"abstract":"<jats:p>This manuscript is devoted to investigating a fractional-order mathematical model of COVID-19. The corresponding derivative is taken in Caputo sense with power-law of fractional order \u03bc and fractal dimension \u03c7. We give some detailed analysis on the existence and uniqueness of the solution to the proposed problem. Furthermore, some results regarding basic reproduction number and stability are given. For the proposed theoretical analysis, we use fixed point theory while for numerical analysis fractional Adams\u2013Bashforth iterative techniques are utilized. Using our numerical scheme is verified by using some real values of the parameters to plot the approximate solution to the considered model. Graphical presentations corresponding to different values of fractional order and fractal dimensions are given. Moreover, we provide some information regarding the real data of Saudi Arabia from 1 March 2020 till 22 April 2021, then calculated the fatality rates by utilizing the SPSS, Eviews and Expert Modeler procedure. We also built forecasts of infection for the period 23 April 2021 to 30 May 2021, with 95% confidence.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/axioms10030228","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,9,15]],"date-time":"2021-09-15T04:50:28Z","timestamp":1631681428000},"page":"228","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":22,"title":["Mathematical Modeling and Forecasting of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia under Fractal-Fractional Derivative in Caputo Sense with Power-Law"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"10","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8812-2859","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Mdi Begum","family":"Jeelani","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematics, Imam Mohammad Ibn Saud Islamic University, Riyadh 11564, Saudi Arabia"}]},{"given":"Abeer S.","family":"Alnahdi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematics, Imam Mohammad Ibn Saud Islamic University, Riyadh 11564, Saudi Arabia"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9085-324X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Mohammed S.","family":"Abdo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematics, Hodeidah University, Al-Hodeidah 3114, Yemen"}]},{"given":"Mansour A.","family":"Abdulwasaa","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Statistics, Dr. Babasaheb Ambedkar Marathwada University, Aurangabad 431004, India"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8851-4844","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Kamal","family":"Shah","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematics, University of Malakand, Chakdara 18800, Pakistan"}]},{"given":"Hanan A.","family":"Wahash","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematics, Dr. Babasaheb Ambedkar Marathwada University, Aurangabad 431004, India"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,9,15]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","unstructured":"(2020, May 11). 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