{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,12]],"date-time":"2025-10-12T02:29:53Z","timestamp":1760236193276,"version":"build-2065373602"},"reference-count":25,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,10,26]],"date-time":"2021-10-26T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1635206400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Axioms"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Predicting the game score is a well-explored duty, using mathematical\/statistical models. Nonetheless, by adopting a Bayesian methodology, this study aimed to estimate probabilistically the Chilean Premier League teams\u2019 position, considering them a hierarchical structure. This approach enabled the evaluation of the main Chilean championship that provides the major soccer players for the national team. Thus, a countable (Poisson) regression structure was considered to explain each match as a combination of home advantage, added to the power of attack and defense of each team and considering their performance in the championship as an independent game. We were able to quantify the relationship across the defense and attack of each team and, in addition, were able to group\/verify the performance of the entirety of the 2020 Chilean Premier League. For the model validation, we saved the last five games for the model prediction and we found that, in this league, the teams presented a statistical significance in the attack factors, which influences the scores (goals); however, all the teams showed low defense power and we have also found that playing at home or away did not present a game advantage. Our model was able to predict the Chilean league position table, with precision on the top five positions, and from the 6\u201311 positions there was a small shift (close performance in the championship) caused by the similarity of the expected number of goals, which implied the same position on the rank. This type of model has been shown to be very competitive for the soccer championship prediction.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/axioms10040276","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,10,26]],"date-time":"2021-10-26T23:49:52Z","timestamp":1635292192000},"page":"276","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["Is Football\/Soccer Purely Stochastic, Made Out of Luck, or Maybe Predictable? How Does Bayesian Reasoning Assess Sports?"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"10","author":[{"given":"Leonardo Barrios","family":"Blanco","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Departamento de Matem\u00e1tica, Facultad de Ingenier\u00eda, Universidad de Atacama, Copiap\u00f3 1530000, Chile"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Paulo Henrique","family":"Ferreira","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Statistics, Federal University of Bahia, Salvador 40170110, Brazil"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7815-9554","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Francisco","family":"Louzada","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Mathematical and Computer Sciences, University of S\u00e3o Paulo, S\u00e3o Carlos 13566590, Brazil"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3406-4518","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Diego Carvalho do","family":"Nascimento","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Departamento de Matem\u00e1tica, Facultad de Ingenier\u00eda, Universidad de Atacama, Copiap\u00f3 1530000, Chile"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,10,26]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"28","DOI":"10.1515\/pcssr-2016-0012","article-title":"Social talent scouting: A new opportunity for the identification of football players?","volume":"70","author":"Radicchi","year":"2016","journal-title":"Phys. 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