{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,2]],"date-time":"2025-11-02T06:11:06Z","timestamp":1762063866427,"version":"build-2065373602"},"reference-count":50,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"9","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,8,26]],"date-time":"2022-08-26T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1661472000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"China Federation of overseas Chinese","award":["19CZQK20","21DRKJ03","2021RZB05024","IFWF2029"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["19CZQK20","21DRKJ03","2021RZB05024","IFWF2029"]}]},{"name":"Social Science Foundation of Shandong Province","award":["19CZQK20","21DRKJ03","2021RZB05024","IFWF2029"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["19CZQK20","21DRKJ03","2021RZB05024","IFWF2029"]}]},{"name":"Key R &amp; D projects (Soft science) in Shandong Province","award":["19CZQK20","21DRKJ03","2021RZB05024","IFWF2029"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["19CZQK20","21DRKJ03","2021RZB05024","IFWF2029"]}]},{"name":"Humanities and Social Sciences project of Shandong University","award":["19CZQK20","21DRKJ03","2021RZB05024","IFWF2029"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["19CZQK20","21DRKJ03","2021RZB05024","IFWF2029"]}]},{"name":"Youth Scholars Program of Shandong University, Weihai","award":["19CZQK20","21DRKJ03","2021RZB05024","IFWF2029"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["19CZQK20","21DRKJ03","2021RZB05024","IFWF2029"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Axioms"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Overseas students constitute the paramount talent resource for China, and, hence, overseas talent mobility prediction is crucial for the formulation of China\u2019s talent strategy. This study proposes a new model for predicting the number of students studying abroad and returning students, based on the grey system theory, owing to the limited data and uncertainty of the influencing factors. The proposed model introduces change-point detection to determine the number of modeling time points, based on the fractional-order grey prediction model. We employed a change-point detection method to find the change points for determining the model length, based on the principle of new information priority, and used a fractional order accumulated generating operation to construct a grey prediction model. The two real data sets, the annual number of students studying abroad and returning students, were employed to verify the superiority of the proposed model. The results showed that the proposed model outperformed other benchmark models. Furthermore, the proposed model has been employed to predict the tendencies of overseas talent mobility in China by 2025. Further, certain policy recommendations for China\u2019s talent strategy development have been proposed, based on the prediction results.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/axioms11090432","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,8,28]],"date-time":"2022-08-28T21:22:56Z","timestamp":1661721776000},"page":"432","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["Novel Fractional Grey Prediction Model with the Change-Point Detection for Overseas Talent Mobility Prediction"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"11","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4876-693X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Peng","family":"Jiang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Business, Shandong University, Weihai 264209, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1518-5346","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Geng","family":"Wu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Business Administration, Chung Yuan Christian University, Taoyuan 320314, Taiwan"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3090-1515","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Yi-Chung","family":"Hu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Business Administration, Chung Yuan Christian University, Taoyuan 320314, Taiwan"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Xue","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Business, Shandong University, Weihai 264209, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Yining","family":"Ren","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Business, Shandong University, Weihai 264209, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,8,26]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jwb.2018.08.003","article-title":"Forgotten or not? home country embeddedness and returnee entrepreneurship","volume":"54","author":"Lin","year":"2019","journal-title":"J. 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