{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,14]],"date-time":"2026-02-14T02:20:04Z","timestamp":1771035604434,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":32,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,3,10]],"date-time":"2025-03-10T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1741564800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["BDCC"],"abstract":"<jats:p>A key challenge in utilizing the expected goals on target (xGOT) metric is the limited public access to detailed football event and positional data, alongside other advanced metrics. This study aims to develop an xGOT model to evaluate goalkeeper (GK) performance based on the probability of successful actions, considering not only the outcomes (saves or goals conceded) but also the difficulty of each shot faced. Formal definitions were established for the following: (i) the initial distance between the ball and the GK at the moment of the shot, (ii) the distance between the ball and the GK over time post-shot, and (iii) the distance between the GK\u2019s initial position and the goal, with respect to the y-coordinate. An xGOT model incorporating geometric parameters was designed to optimize performance based on the ball position, trajectory, and GK positioning. The model was tested using shots on target from the 2022 FIFA World Cup. Statistical evaluation using k-fold cross-validation yielded an AUC-ROC score of 0.67 and an 85% accuracy, confirming the model\u2019s ability to differentiate successful GK performances. This approach enables a more precise evaluation of GK decision-making by analyzing a representative dataset of shots to estimate the probability of success.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/bdcc9030064","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,3,10]],"date-time":"2025-03-10T12:02:59Z","timestamp":1741608179000},"page":"64","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":5,"title":["An Expected Goals On Target (xGOT) Model: Accounting for Goalkeeper Performance in Football"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"9","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8499-9760","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Blanca","family":"De-la-Cruz-Torres","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Physiotherapy, University of Seville, c\/Avicena s\/n, 41009 Seville, Spain"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0003-5452-8716","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Miguel","family":"Navarro-Castro","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Applied Mathematics I, Higher Technical School of Architecture, University of Seville, Avd. Reina Mercedes s\/n, 41012 Seville, Spain"}]},{"given":"Anselmo","family":"Ruiz-de-Alarc\u00f3n-Quintero","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Football and Handball Academy, Street n\u00ba 12B, Office 6, 41960 Seville, Spain"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,3,10]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","first-page":"541","article-title":"Measuring the Effectiveness of Playing Strategies at Soccer","volume":"46","author":"Pollard","year":"1997","journal-title":"J. R. Stat. Soc. D Stat."},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"269","DOI":"10.1080\/17461390903515170","article-title":"Measuring the Effectiveness of Offensive Match-Play in Professional Soccer","volume":"10","author":"Tenga","year":"2010","journal-title":"Eur. J. Sport Sci."},{"key":"ref_3","unstructured":"Lucey, P., Bialkowski, A., Monfort, M., Carr, P., and Matthews, I. 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