{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,9]],"date-time":"2026-04-09T01:34:40Z","timestamp":1775698480161,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":70,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,2,22]],"date-time":"2024-02-22T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1708560000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Computation"],"abstract":"<jats:p>The forecasting of presidential election results (PERs) is a very complex problem due to the diversity of electoral factors and the uncertainty involved. The use of a hybrid approach composed of techniques such as machine learning (ML) and Simulation in forecasting tasks is promising because the former presents good results but requires a good balance between data quantity and quality, and the latter supplies said requirement; nonetheless, each technique has its limitations, parameters, processes, and application contexts, which should be treated as a whole to improve the results. This study proposes a systematic method to build a model to forecast the PERs with high precision, based on the factors that influence the voter\u2019s preferences and the use of ML and Simulation techniques. The method consists of four phases, uses contextual and synthetic data, and follows a procedure that guarantees high precision in predicting the PER. The method was applied to real cases in Brazil, Uruguay, and Peru, resulting in a predictive model with 100% agreement with the actual first-round results for all cases.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/computation12030038","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,2,22]],"date-time":"2024-02-22T08:34:35Z","timestamp":1708590875000},"page":"38","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":8,"title":["Method to Forecast the Presidential Election Results Based on Simulation and Machine Learning"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"12","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9289-3632","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Luis","family":"Zuloaga-Rotta","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Facultad de Ingenier\u00eda Industrial y de Sistemas, Universidad Nacional de Ingenier\u00eda, Lima 15333, Peru"}]},{"given":"Rub\u00e9n","family":"Borja-Rosales","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Facultad de Ingenier\u00eda Industrial y de Sistemas, Universidad Nacional de Ingenier\u00eda, Lima 15333, Peru"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5344-7952","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Mirko Jerber","family":"Rodr\u00edguez Mallma","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Facultad de Ingenier\u00eda Industrial y de Sistemas, Universidad Nacional de Ingenier\u00eda, Lima 15333, Peru"}]},{"given":"David","family":"Mauricio","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos, Lima 15081, Peru"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3897-3356","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Nelson","family":"Maculan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro 21941-617, Brazil"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,2,22]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","first-page":"125481","article-title":"A Multi-Agent System to Predict the Outcome of a Two-Round Election","volume":"386","author":"Charcon","year":"2020","journal-title":"Appl. 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