{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,28]],"date-time":"2026-04-28T10:07:17Z","timestamp":1777370837264,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":19,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,15]],"date-time":"2026-04-15T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1776211200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Computers"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Risk stratification of impaired glycemic control remains a major challenge in biomedical data analysis due to heterogeneous metabolic, behavioral, and therapeutic factors observed in large-scale populations. This study proposes a calibrated and interpretable decision\u2013support framework, termed Calibrated Multi-Task Stacking Ensemble (CMSE), for joint modeling of clinically related glycemic outcomes. The framework integrates demographic variables, lipid profiles, renal and inflammatory biomarkers, dietary and smoking indicators, and therapy-related features within a unified predictive architecture. Robust modeling is ensured through leakage-aware preprocessing, quantile-based Winsorization, out-of-fold stacking, and isotonic calibration of probabilistic outputs. The physiological coherence between short-term and long-term glycemic markers is investigated using an explicit intertask coupling mechanism based on the estimated average glucose (eAG) ratio. Model interpretability is supported using SHAP analysis, mutual information, distance correlation, and feature importance metrics. In the primary medication-free screening configuration, the framework is evaluated on the NHANES 2017\u2013March 2020 dataset, achieving ROC-AUC of 0.865 for diabetes classification and R2 values of 0.385 and 0.366 for plasma glucose and HbA1c prediction, respectively. These results indicate that CMSE provides a reliable and explainable approach for calibrated glycemic risk assessment and clinical decision support.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/computers15040244","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,15]],"date-time":"2026-04-15T15:56:56Z","timestamp":1776268616000},"page":"244","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["A Calibrated Multi-Task Ensemble Architecture for Biomedical Risk Prediction"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"15","author":[{"given":"Zhainagul","family":"Khamitova","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Information Systems, Faculty of Information Technology, L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, Astana 010000, Kazakhstan"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Gulmira","family":"Omarova","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Information Systems, Faculty of Information Technology, L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, Astana 010000, Kazakhstan"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Madi","family":"Akhmetzhanov","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Applied Informatics and Programming, M. Kh. Dulaty Taraz University, Taraz 080000, Kazakhstan"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Roza","family":"Burganova","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Social Work and Tourism, Esil University, Astana 010000, Kazakhstan"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Maksym","family":"Orynbassar","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Computer Science, Sh. Yessenov Caspian University of Technology and Engineering, Aktau 130000, Kazakhstan"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Umida","family":"Sabirova","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Sociology, National University of Uzbekistan named after Mirzo Ulugbek, Tashkent 100174, Uzbekistan"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Almagul","family":"Bukatayeva","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Information Technology, Semey Medical University, Semey 071400, Kazakhstan"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Aliya","family":"Barakova","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"S.D. Asfendiyarov Kazakh National Medical University, Almaty 050000, Kazakhstan"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Gulnoz","family":"Jiyanmuratova","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Sociology, National University of Uzbekistan named after Mirzo Ulugbek, Tashkent 100174, Uzbekistan"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Dilchekhra","family":"Yuldasheva","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Tashkent State Medical University, Tashkent 100174, Uzbekistan"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,15]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","unstructured":"Kim, S.Y. (2024). Explainable AI-Based Clinical Decision Support Systems: Frameworks, Methods, and Applications. Appl. 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