{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,11]],"date-time":"2026-05-11T08:41:53Z","timestamp":1778488913916,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":103,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"11","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,10,28]],"date-time":"2020-10-28T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1603843200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100003141","name":"Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnolog\u00eda","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["376516"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["376516"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100003141","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Entropy"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Nowcasting earthquakes, suggested recently as a method to estimate the state of a fault and hence the seismic risk, is based on the concept of natural time. Here, we generalize nowcasting to a prediction method the merits of which are evaluated by means of the receiver operating characteristics. This new prediction method is applied to a simple (toy) model for the waiting (natural) time of the stronger earthquakes, real seismicity, and the Olami-Feder-Christensen earthquake model with interesting results revealing acceptable to excellent or even outstanding performance.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/e22111228","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,10,28]],"date-time":"2020-10-28T11:43:06Z","timestamp":1603885386000},"page":"1228","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":36,"title":["Nowcasting Avalanches as Earthquakes and the Predictability of Strong Avalanches in the Olami-Feder-Christensen Model"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"22","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5731-8632","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jennifer","family":"Perez-Oregon","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Solid Earth Physics Institute, Physics Department, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Panepistimiopolis, Zografos, 157 84 Athens, Greece"},{"name":"Departamento de F\u00edsica, Escuela Superior de F\u00edsica y Matem\u00e1ticas, Instituto Polit\u00e9cnico Nacional, UP Zacatenco C.P., Mexico City 07738, Mexico"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7965-890X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Fernando","family":"Angulo-Brown","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Departamento de F\u00edsica, Escuela Superior de F\u00edsica y Matem\u00e1ticas, Instituto Polit\u00e9cnico Nacional, UP Zacatenco C.P., Mexico City 07738, Mexico"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8483-519X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Nicholas Vassiliou","family":"Sarlis","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Solid Earth Physics Institute, Physics Department, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Panepistimiopolis, Zografos, 157 84 Athens, Greece"},{"name":"Section of Condensed Matter Physics, Physics Department, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Panepistimiopolis, Zografos, 157 84 Athens, Greece"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2020,10,28]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"63","DOI":"10.1016\/S0031-9201(02)00014-6","article-title":"Monofractal and multifractal approaches in investigating scaling properties in temporal patterns of the 1983\u20132000 seismicity in the Western Corinth Graben (Greece)","volume":"131","author":"Telesca","year":"2002","journal-title":"Phys. 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